tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post114242254633083116..comments2023-11-03T19:05:08.512+11:00Comments on Harry Clarke: Cognitive reflection and decision makingUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-1144804872882741572006-04-12T11:21:00.000+10:002006-04-12T11:21:00.000+10:00This research is pathetically sexist. Men seem mo...This research is pathetically sexist. Men seem more "cognitively reflective" than women. I guess it's not surprising - Amos Tversky was extremely sexist and a pathological womanizer. His legend lives on.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-1142580653573536382006-03-17T18:30:00.000+11:002006-03-17T18:30:00.000+11:00Rabee's point worries me and I will check out if t...Rabee's point worries me and I will check out if they controlled for it. It applies also to the verbal tests of 'opportunity costs' discussed a few weeks ago. Here economics PhDs were found to have poor understanding of economics. Again it could be that they couldn't be bothered putting effort into answering an unrewarded question. In a post on Crooked Timber one interviewee said as much.<BR/><BR/>When I did the first of the 3 questions I got it wrong - partly because I didn't take it seriously and was only half-concentrating. When I found I was wrong I felt silly and put more effort in - and got the last two correct. <BR/><BR/>I don't concentrate all the time - I'll tune out if I feel the stakes are low.hchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13799594181016858701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-1142503794688074962006-03-16T21:09:00.000+11:002006-03-16T21:09:00.000+11:00I'd take the 1% chance of $5000 (particularily if ...I'd take the 1% chance of $5000 (particularily if I don't have to pay anything to get it). If I get $50 without having to do anything, its no big deal (to me at least). Alternatively, $5000 I wouldn't mind at all. Thus the real worth of the money is exponential too me. With $50, I can't do much, but with $5000, I can really do something I want to. Thus the effective worth is more than 50 * 100.<BR/><BR/>A similar principle can be used to understand why I hate enforced superanuation and why I didn't pay my HECS loan off at the cheaper lump sum rate.<BR/><BR/>It is because the effective value of the money at different stages of my life is different (more then and less now) -- thusI assume that I will enjoy the same amount more now than later.<BR/><BR/>Now, is that really a cognitive bias, or is it a sensible evaluation ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-1142468529872980122006-03-16T11:22:00.000+11:002006-03-16T11:22:00.000+11:00Suppose that you did the following experiment:You ...Suppose that you did the following experiment:<BR/><BR/>You ask people to answer the same question: <BR/><BR/>1) A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?<BR/> <BR/>If they get the right answer, then you give them a hundred dollars. Otherwise, they get nothing. <BR/><BR/>How many people will get it right? I suspect that most people will get it right. <BR/><BR/>Asking a people to waist their time answering silly questions for free is simply going to give you information about how much people value their time. <BR/><BR/>People who do waist their time and answer correctly <BR/>don't valued their time as much as a person who pays little attention to the survey. <BR/><BR/>Further people who don’t value their time are more likely to be risk takers. That is pretty obvious.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-1142461011769111632006-03-16T09:16:00.000+11:002006-03-16T09:16:00.000+11:00I agree Sam its weird. The 'smart' people went for...I agree Sam its weird. The 'smart' people went for risky options even when 'on average' it hurts them so its not just a matter of overcoming irrational risk aversion.<BR/><BR/>I am doing some work on economics of gambling, so I should post on this to see what you think.hchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13799594181016858701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-1142460540237276412006-03-16T09:09:00.000+11:002006-03-16T09:09:00.000+11:00Nobody should be taking the 1% chance of $5000 ove...Nobody should be taking the 1% chance of $5000 over the guaranteed $60. Your expected return is $50 vs $60. These are the same people who play the lottery. (And the same people who provide me with my living)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-1142422810175044822006-03-15T22:40:00.000+11:002006-03-15T22:40:00.000+11:00The correct answers are 5 cents, 5 minutes and 47 ...The correct answers are 5 cents, 5 minutes and 47 days.hchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13799594181016858701noreply@blogger.com