tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post116450065844547036..comments2023-11-03T19:05:08.512+11:00Comments on Harry Clarke: Labor retains power in VictoriaUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-1164592884730918462006-11-27T13:01:00.000+11:002006-11-27T13:01:00.000+11:00Harry,I'd be inclined to agree, although I do wond...Harry,<BR/><BR/>I'd be inclined to agree, although I do wonder how many Labor votes would be captured by a religion/family based party. <BR/><BR/>Chances are the numbers are just showing a swing from Labor to Liberal, and also the fact that there are some who vote FF and then just preference Liberal. <BR/><BR/>But I'd still be keen to see how many Labor folk saw FF as an appealing first choice. Maybe I'll do some scratching around for numbers in different electorates...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-1164590277425904792006-11-27T12:17:00.000+11:002006-11-27T12:17:00.000+11:00Mike, I think most FF preferences went to Liberals...Mike, I think most FF preferences went to Liberals so I doubt it accounted for much of the outcome.hchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13799594181016858701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-1164589690983393922006-11-27T12:08:00.000+11:002006-11-27T12:08:00.000+11:00What I found interesting about the election result...What I found interesting about the election result was the trend in aggregate primary votes.<BR/><BR/>The last data that I saw on election night had very little change in primary votes for Greens, Nats and Others.<BR/><BR/>Labor primaries dropped by around 4%, and Liberal dropped by around 1%. <BR/><BR/>Family First picked up most of the gain - around 5%.<BR/><BR/>I haven't had a chance to look up figures since the night, but if those figures didn't change much, then it makes you wonder what would have happened if it were not for FF.<BR/><BR/>Would there have been little or no change in primaries across the board? Or would the 5% boost to Family First have channeled directly to Liberal?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-1164529574233226962006-11-26T19:26:00.000+11:002006-11-26T19:26:00.000+11:00And whatever the opposite of pork-barrel is ,occur...And whatever the opposite of pork-barrel is ,occurs in safe seats,especially the most disadvantaged.Absentee local members,no money , no promises. I wonder if the moonee ponds drain would be turned back into a creek if it were in a marginal seat.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-1164520197606017922006-11-26T16:49:00.000+11:002006-11-26T16:49:00.000+11:00Chrisl, If you consider the outcome for people lik...Chrisl, If you consider the outcome for people like Russell Savage on the basis of the Nowingi toxic waste dump issue things become clear. Locals don't want the dump but the state clearly needs one somewhere. Savage seems to have been a good local member for Mildura but was rejected because he was seen as too soft on the waste issue. <BR/><BR/>The incentives are to think locally and to locally pork-barrel. You can see that outcomes might be suboptimal if the balance of power is close enough. Of course Steve Bracks still has a huge margin so maybe they will stick with the waste dump disposal decision.hchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13799594181016858701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-1164503198008413122006-11-26T12:06:00.000+11:002006-11-26T12:06:00.000+11:00Harry, What is your take on the role of a local me...Harry, What is your take on the role of a local member. There was a lot of talk last night about candidates being very good local members because of their ability to doorknock/upgrade facilities in their area.When they get elected they have to deal with statewide issues such as health/resources which they must have trouble dealing with. Thus we have good local members without any idea on statewide issues.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-1164502588111781792006-11-26T11:56:00.000+11:002006-11-26T11:56:00.000+11:00State politics is largely about services. So long ...State politics is largely about services. So long as services seem to be delivered effectively and they don't break the bank,labour will hold on to power for as long as it wants.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com