tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post6653667172120665123..comments2023-11-03T19:05:08.512+11:00Comments on Harry Clarke: Thoughts on the US economyUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-26986880073852666442008-09-29T12:03:00.000+10:002008-09-29T12:03:00.000+10:00jc,early 90's we (USA) had cheap energy, peace, re...jc,<BR/><BR/>early 90's we (USA) had cheap energy, peace, relative prosperity, rising employment, a "doing okay" middle class, were headed toward a balanced budget (eventually Clinton managed a 2$Bn surplus), and our world bankers loved us.<BR/><BR/>now energy is expensive, we import most of our food and most of our manufactured products, we borrow 2$Bn/day to pay for it, the middle class is against the wall and having as much trouble with mortgages and credit as the poor, we have rising unemployment, we're mired in a 10 $Bn/month war, and the world is a far more competitive place (with a rising China, Russia, and India), and our world bankers are worried about us.<BR/><BR/>On top of all that, when Bush entered office, the National Debt was $5.8 trillion, and in eight years we've doubled it so we have a far heavier interest burden to carry. Key here is our world bankers are worried about us and our gonzo consumption and negative savings rate.<BR/><BR/>I think we've got some serious troubles ahead.<BR/><BR/>ehj2/retired yank engineerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-64025004661909252202008-09-22T19:02:00.000+10:002008-09-22T19:02:00.000+10:00Credit Suisse said it's about a $1.3 trillion. So ...Credit Suisse said it's about a $1.3 trillion. So far the banks have written off about $500 billion, so the US$700 sounds about right.<BR/>Their chief market economist is pretty good by the way.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-18804767718302255982008-09-22T18:59:00.000+10:002008-09-22T18:59:00.000+10:00Spiros:At times like this every single asset on a ...Spiros:<BR/><BR/>At times like this every single asset on a bank's balance sheet looks suspect. <BR/><BR/>i'm not suggesting we don't have a storm on our hands of immense proportions, but it's no longer a hurricane.<BR/><BR/>By the way the banks had similar exposure on their books in the early 90'a called LOB loans.<BR/><BR/>I think Roubini is far too bearish.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-90268960361653649002008-09-22T18:40:00.000+10:002008-09-22T18:40:00.000+10:00Nouriel Roubini reckons there's two more waves to ...Nouriel Roubini reckons there's two more waves to come. Next will be the run on the hedge funds, and then the private equity groups will crash when they can't refinance their LBOs.<BR/><BR/>Since there's been a trillion in private equity LBOs, it might end up being a tad bigger than the early 90s. <BR/><BR/>Roubini might be wrong, but he's called it right so far.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-48376979748261956982008-09-22T17:59:00.000+10:002008-09-22T17:59:00.000+10:00Harry, with due respect. this bailout is smaller t...Harry, with due respect. this bailout is smaller than the SL/RTC bailout of the early 90's.<BR/><BR/>Like then we'll get four odd years of sub par growht and it will start all over again.ejibaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com