tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-220312702024-03-07T20:12:47.866+11:00Harry Clarkecommentary on economics, politics & other thingsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1534125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-76028785475967066632009-03-29T18:37:00.007+11:002009-08-16T17:38:29.902+10:00New siteI have a new site at <i>WordPress</i>:<br />
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<a href="http://www.harryrclarke.com/">http://www.harryrclarke.com/</a><br />
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<strong>Readers please adjust your browser settings. </strong><br />
<strong></strong><br />
It is goodbye <i>Blogger</i> for at least a while. I have got to express my sincere thanks to <i>Goggle.com</i> for making the incredible <i>Blogger</i> software available free. It is amazingly simple and powerful software. My reasons for making the change? I want to try something new and want to play around and learn about <i>WordPress</i>.<br />
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<strong>Bleg:</strong> I tried to export my earlier <i>Blogger</i> posts to this new <i>Wordpress</i> site but the <i>WordPress</i> instructions for the export (somewhat ominously) did not work. The problem with the export tool in <i>WordPress</i> is well-understood and analysed in their discussion groups. The usual suggested work-around is to first copy files to a <i>WordPress.com</i> hosted account and then copy them across to the <i>Wordpress.org</i> self-hosted account. That did not work for me as my <i>Blogger</i> archives are far, far too big.<br />
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<strong>If anyone knows some way to effect the export I'd appreciate any help/advice. I will pay to have the files successfully transferred. </strong><br />
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<strong>Update:</strong> On 15/8/2009 I did copy most of the files across successfully without drama.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-59663045412745289852009-03-28T10:47:00.001+11:002009-03-28T17:08:04.234+11:00What the Welsh do at nightThis is power <a href="http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid4464161001?bctid=17075685001">shepherding</a>. Literally brilliant.<br />
<div style="text-align: right;">Thanks Bernd</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-61700187385636041742009-03-28T09:55:00.003+11:002009-03-28T10:10:31.466+11:00Joel FitzgibbonDefence Minister <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/27/2527742.htm?section=justin">Joel Fitzgibbon's friendship links with a Chinese national </a>seem to have gone well beyond the point of occasional, friendly personal encounters. Free trips to China and gifts from someone also making hefty financial contributions to the ALP seem completely over the top. Particularly when Fitzgibbon <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/if-ethics-count-fitzgibbon-should-go-on-a-oneway-trip-out-says-mp-20090327-9e7g.html">lies</a> about the gifts until they are revealled to be facts and particularly given that he is the nation's defence Minister. <br /><br />Can he be so naive as to assume other countries do not seek to influence and compromise ministers in pursuit of their national interest? How could a person in this position put himself in a position of appearing to be compromised?<br /><br />Several major Australia-China issues are currently on the Australian political agenda. China seeks a substantial stake in the Australian resource sector.<br /><br />Joel Fitzgibbon should resign or be sacked.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-12420049052500785452009-03-28T09:50:00.000+11:002009-03-28T09:50:23.094+11:00Accident-prone LiberalsThis pessimistic - though I think accurate - piece from conservative columnist/journalist Doug Conway appeared in today's <em><a href="http://digitaledition.manlydaily.com.au/">Manly Daily</a></em>:<br />
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<blockquote>ANNA Bligh's historic win in Queensland extends to 25 the number of consecutive state and territory elections where conservative parties have either lost to Labor or won fewer seats.<br />
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The only aberration came last year in WA, where Colin Barnett's Liberals managed to form a minority coalition government with the independents.<br />
<br />
In NSW the Coalition has not won in its own right since 1988, when Nick Greiner defeated Barrie Unsworth in a landslide.<br />
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By the time Nathan Rees goes to the polls in 2011, Labor will have held power in NSW for 16 years.<br />
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Anna Bligh's feat in becoming Australia's first directly elected female premier has delivered a fifth straight term to Queensland Labor, which has ruled for 18 of the past 20 years.<br />
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Bligh has given hope to other long-standing state Labor governments which must face the polls in the next two years: Victoria, SA and Tasmania as well as NSW.<br />
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State Liberals around the nation have consistently failed to unseat Labor governments despite a string of scandals and some clear cases of ineptitude.<br />
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Labor was returned to power in NSW two years ago with just a loss of a couple of seats. Yet Morris Iemma's government had been running one of the most sluggish economies in the country, failing to deliver on health, education and transport.<br />
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Labor governments, which at times seem to do everything in their power to get beaten, have proved unbeatable, often thanks to Liberal blunders.<br />
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An inquiry into vote-rigging in 2001 forced the resignation of senior Labor figures in Queensland but even that made no difference.<br />
<br />
John Brogden resigned as NSW Liberal leader in 2005 after making racist jokes at the expense of premier Bob Carr's wife, and later attempted suicide.<br />
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Former South Australian Liberal premier John Olsen quit in 2001 after an independent report found he acted dishonestly in trying to attract telecom company Motorola to Adelaide.<br />
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Victorian Liberals have never recovered from the unforeseen uprising that tossed the autocratic Jeff Kennett out of office in 1999.<br />
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Labor's extraordinary run at state level is not because voters have always been satisfied with ALP government.<br />
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As one commentator remarked, it's because they have had insufficient faith in any alternative.</blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-41213173334291729132009-03-26T22:49:00.001+11:002009-03-26T22:56:40.407+11:00H.E. Seyed Mohammad Khatami<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlyZAZLle0F2oNGsvz2M_ewrah7RDt4-kcbtwKY6BynheTgz1e0dwbjM-zEr7eMFlpMBWsPFCZ0QLNUFYQFJDRu8aJqog1hVl19oldpNcVSfH8T4iMn-mOgiZ__NP4XpNxTvmAiA/s1600-h/KhatamiSmiling.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ii="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlyZAZLle0F2oNGsvz2M_ewrah7RDt4-kcbtwKY6BynheTgz1e0dwbjM-zEr7eMFlpMBWsPFCZ0QLNUFYQFJDRu8aJqog1hVl19oldpNcVSfH8T4iMn-mOgiZ__NP4XpNxTvmAiA/s400/KhatamiSmiling.jpg" /></a></div>I heard this remarkable man - ex president of Iran 1997-2005 - speak at La Trobe University this evening. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_Khatami">Mr Khatami is a Muslim cleric whose main interest is political philosophy</a>. I found his prepared speech, which ran for half an hour, academic and rather dry. For another 2 hours however he took good-natured, though often pointed questions from his audience with grace, animation and (most of all) an erudite humor that had even the stern-faced security guards in stiches of laughter. It was the largest public meeting I have attended at LTU with about 1300 in attendance - the audience filled 3 lecture theatres to capacity. <br />
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A most enjoyable evening which touched on the conservatives in Iran, fanatical Muslims, fanatical neocons, Iranian nuclear power, Palestine, Barack Obama.<br />
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Khatami's public presence <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/khatami-is-not-the-conciliator-he-claims-to-be-20090319-937x.html?page=-1">did not support the Jewish Community Council of Victoria's image</a> of him as a Jew-hating supporter of terrorism. In his public statements tonight he expressed religious solidarity with the Jews - in terms of a common religious heritage - but opposition to their occupation of Palestine, total opposition to religious fundamentalism and absolute opposition to terrorism. He saw Obama as a positive force that was nevertheless likely to be thwarted by US pressure groups. He skillfully promoted the Iranian national image - no mean feat given the press it receives.<br />
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The JCCV condemned LTU for inviting him but in my view we should listen. In human terms I've got to say that I feel some bond with people such as Khatami. I probably would not agree with some of his specific religious views but to be honest, if I was organising a barbie, I'd <strong>like</strong> him to come. Maybe I am gullible and falling for a skilled propagandist! Maybe not.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-12829651927160422282009-03-26T07:51:00.000+11:002009-03-26T07:51:57.305+11:00World trade collapseThe <a href="http://ictsd.net/i/news/bridgesweekly/43818/">value of world trade will fall 9% in 2009</a> compared to growth of a miserable 2% (not 4.5% as forecast) in 2008 the WTO said on Monday. World production will fall by 1-2% in 2009, the first fall since the 1930s. Further falls in trade can be anticipated as the recession intensifies - the unavailability of trade finance is proving a constraint for developing countrie and declines in exports have strong multiplierr effects on all trading economies. <br />
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The economic crisis that has descended on the globe will not end quickly. A move toward <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-03/24/content_11066086.htm">protectionism would naturally worsen things</a>.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-75557550547420147552009-03-25T08:58:00.000+11:002009-03-25T08:58:35.125+11:00Visualising the financial crisisJonathon Jarvis provides <a href="http://jonathanjarvis.com/crisis-of-credit">this exceedingly clear view of the global financial crisis</a>. One of the best I have seen.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-61844578188421208652009-03-24T15:33:00.001+11:002009-03-25T20:39:39.119+11:00Stuff white people likeThis is a <a href="http://stuffwhitepeoplelike.com/">fun blog that has been operating for a bit more than a year</a>. I'll add it to the blogroll. <br />
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Moleskine notebooks - <a href="http://stuffwhitepeoplelike.com/2009/02/24/122-moleskine-notebooks/">expensive without additional functionality</a>. <br />
Coffee - particularly fair trade coffee - <a href="http://stuffwhitepeoplelike.com/2008/01/18/1-coffee/">that $2 makes a difference</a>. <br />
Asian girls - <a href="http://stuffwhitepeoplelike.com/2008/01/20/11-asian-girls/">they don't have mid-life crises and produce attractive hybrids</a>. <br />
Funny or ironic tattoos - <a href="http://stuffwhitepeoplelike.com/2009/02/10/121-funny-or-ironic-tattoos/">these tattoos you don't tire of short-term</a>. <br />
<div style="text-align: right;">Thanks RH</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-8888006926840552702009-03-23T22:05:00.000+11:002009-03-23T22:05:54.103+11:00US vs. China on climate changeGiven that the US has been so slow to come to the party to <em>even think</em> of seriously addressing climate change it seems almost hypocritical of it to threaten retaliatory tariffs on Chinese carbon intensive exports if China does not adequately price carbon. Europe <a href="http://lawandenvironment.typepad.com/law_and_the_environment/2008/01/europe-and-us-t.html">had already threatened to do the same to the US when Europe alone was pricing its carbon emissions</a>. The move might force China to comply - I have written a paper analysing such outcomes in a cut-and-dried game theory setting. The motivation is that by pricing carbon China then gets to collect the duties not the US. Factors working against such an outcome are the abysmally low levels of energy consumption in a country plagued by extremes of climate and a country which is still distant from middle income status. <br />
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I prefer the Garnaut approach - tell China to cut its emissions growth to one half its GDP growth rate - not difficult at present - and then target rates of carbon emissions that converge to global uniformity by 2050. Seems fairer given China's situation and more likely to be something China accepts. China is already screaming <a href="http://www.tcetoday.com/tcetoday/NewsDetail.aspx?nid=11565">'protectionism'</a> in relation to the US and vaguely suggesting a challenge at the WTO. They are suggesting that <em>destination accounting</em> should prevail (customers not producers pay carbon taxes) with US consumers of Chinese carbon intensive goods being held to account. That is, of course, exactly what the US sees itself doing. <br />
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What is really to be feared is that <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/23/world/23trade.html?_r=1&th&emc=th">attempts to clean up greenhouse gas emissions will become lost in beggar-thy-neighbour protectionism and a world trade war</a>.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-89332425031098571312009-03-23T18:10:00.002+11:002009-03-24T22:35:47.030+11:00In praise of economicsBoth of my university-age kids are studying economics. When intelligent young people ask for advice on what to study at university I often advise them to study economics. This often raises a wry smile given that people often know that all I have done all my life is work in economics. But I try to discount the 'blinkering' effects of my vocational choice when offering advise. I believe what I am saying - indeed even though I sometimes (not often) complain about life in the universities I have never come close to losing my fascination with economics*.<br />
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I notice that in my own university which is experiencing a few enrollment pressures - that no such pressures are occurring in the economics area. A third-year international trade course we teach has over 300 students enrolled this semester! Ten years ago doomstayers were predicting the end of economics and its replacement with amorphous, non-analytical, 'smorgasboard' courses in 'business' and 'marketing' (NB I regard finance as part of economics and commerce/accounting as a useful discipline that <strong>should</strong> draw on economics). I never believed pessimistic claims regarding the future of economics because, in the long-run, the market for quality will assert itself. <br />
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For the life of me I cannot understand how marketing can be taught without a solid background in microeconomics. How business students generally can function without knowing what the Reserve Bank and Treasury do. I really don't see how you can sensibly discuss corporate strategy without knowing basic game theory or understand industrial relations issues without studying labour economics. Students apparently agree with my perspective and are voting with their feet. <br />
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There is some slight advantage to students with poor analytical and maths skills in studying vocational disciplines but in the business area these disciplines don't have the intellectual rigour and intellectual fascination of economics. Too often, too, they are dominated by verbiage, psycho-babble and non-rigorous reasoning. Moreover, business skills need to be taught partly on the job - not in universities. The students from such programs too often emerge without a great deal of value-added from their studies. They come to me with a thesis proposal and I can't help them - they have no quantitative skills and just don't know much. <br />
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Economics is the <a href="http://www.viet-studies.info/kinhte/Economic_Major_CHE.pdf">ideal liberal arts university major for students with curiousity and intelligence.</a><br />
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<div style="text-align: right;">I owe <a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/03/just-right-major.html">the link to Gregory Mankiw</a></div><br />
* I have a few regrets in the economics area. One is that I didn't do a systematic program in economic history and secondly that I did not pursue an early interest in the history of economic thinking. Both of these activities I now pursue as recreation.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-13034790374310222642009-03-22T22:17:00.005+11:002009-03-24T07:47:23.110+11:00More nostalgia - Fairport Convention<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairport_Convention">Fairport Convention </a><strong>is</strong> one of my all-time favourite bands. They still perform although their early album with Sandy Denny <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liege_and_Lief">Liege and Lief</a> remains my favourite. Denny died tragically in 1978 after skipping through a number of groups. <em>Liege and Lief</em> is monumental <em>folk-rock music:</em><br />
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<div style="text-align: center;"><em><strong>'To rouse the spirit of the earth and move the rolling sky'.<br />
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Try: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EV44H7IyB10&feature=PlayList&p=5BC5B7A0ED75EBFB&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=24">Come All Ye</a>. <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-ezy2WaM24&feature=related">The Deserter</a>. <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3RMut_8IxQ&feature=related">Reynardine</a>. <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hD3F93v1Tdc">Matty Groves</a>. <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nN1AOamgrHk&feature=related">Tam Lin</a>...... fantastic performances.<br />
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A beautiful <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Rd_gMrmf6g">later piece by Denny</a> and <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbpURBJA4uA&feature=related">this</a> and <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lU5_S-fjhD0&feature=related">this</a>. Same incredible voice.<br />
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The rhythms of <em>Tam Lin</em> move me 40 years back through time - acrid, smoke-filled rooms, cheap, red wine and earnest discussions about the Vietnam War and conscription. But enjoying FC now in real time with a 1988 <em>Balgownie Estate</em> - <em>Cabernet Savignon</em> - made by the legendary vigneron Stuart Anderson. Great old wine with great music!Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-3758026485910972152009-03-21T20:11:00.001+11:002009-03-21T22:51:14.779+11:00Labor to be returned in Queensland<strong>7.59pm</strong>: Despite some good swings to the new LNP I believe Labor will be returned with a much-reduced majority. In the old Parliament Labor had a huge majority of 37 seats - LNP 23 seats, Labor 63. It was a huge ask for the new LNP to win. My prediction is based on the ABC's extrapolation of trends given 19% of the vote counted. The LNP needed about an 8% swing to form government - I cannot see them getting that.<br />
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<strong>Update:</strong> By 9-30pm it was all over. The LNP only got a swing of 3.1% and the Labor Party are returned. The number of LDP seats will go up to around 32 which still leaves Labor with a big majority. The result a disappointment for conservative politics in Australia. The economy is not <strong>yet</strong> driving voters from Labor.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-39392757615613224732009-03-21T12:18:00.002+11:002009-03-21T12:18:52.359+11:00Long picturesI enjoyed <a href="http://www.boingboing.net/2008/04/22/on-long-photographs.html">this</a> oldie from <em>BoingBoing</em>.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-77314666110731968332009-03-21T09:54:00.002+11:002009-03-22T22:44:30.641+11:00Einfeld goes to jailFormer head of <em>Human Rights Commission</em> and perennial liar <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Einfeld">Marcus Einfeld</a> has gone to jail for at least two years. The left <a href="http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/personality_judge_pays_the_right_price/">loved him as a personality judge</a>. But he lied about a $77 fine (he had lied about traffic convictions several times before), lied about his academic qualifications (he bought degrees) and his past directorships and plagiarised past legal judgements. Einfeld made a career as a well-paid, blow-hard moraliser. Aborigines, refugees, Cornelia Rau ...Einfeld was a great defender of humanity. I can't help wondering whether his claims in this regard were lies too or, as I often sensed when I heard him speak, just pompous insincerity. <br />
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No-one should dance with joy to see Einfeld cop his due. There is tragedy here - he is 69 and his health is poor. But for once the legal system worked <strong>reasonably</strong> well * and extenuating circumstances were not evoked for a favoured son. <br />
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* The qualification <strong>reasonably</strong> because his sentence was reduced because of the pain he has suffered on account of the press coverage received. But the press didn't persecute him - they only identified his lies.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-64806268521046328662009-03-19T23:44:00.001+11:002009-03-20T00:10:30.565+11:00Nostalgia - Norman Gunston & Frank ZappaI had forgotten <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyrsiIK7rBE">how good both of them were</a>. Here goes Zappa on the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uRvR2oF3FQ">Illinois Enema Bandit</a>. And a totally disgusting version (with <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Captain_Beefheart">Captain Beefheart</a>) of <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAxT0fRm4w8&feature=PlayList&p=4D07C01E69B874A1&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=43">Willie the Pimp</a>. We miss you Frankie.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-32769031403098758902009-03-19T22:17:00.002+11:002009-03-19T22:50:56.926+11:00Tiger Woods to come to Oz<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX76_4nLzbPKlGcolxEG7QIy3L-xAi_GxUMdKNch7x7Y0fpxbr0EBE7S3bUo_6_3jpgNLywH_Dtqh_8GZRye3edD5rk-A7rd_BWAb3Vxj49tjx6NMXK4IoqBFfoC3u_yNHQmjekw/s1600-h/tiger.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ii="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX76_4nLzbPKlGcolxEG7QIy3L-xAi_GxUMdKNch7x7Y0fpxbr0EBE7S3bUo_6_3jpgNLywH_Dtqh_8GZRye3edD5rk-A7rd_BWAb3Vxj49tjx6NMXK4IoqBFfoC3u_yNHQmjekw/s400/tiger.jpg" /></a></div>Tiger Woods will play in the Australian Open this year in Victoria. He will be paid $4.5 million for his 3 day effort <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/news/sport/golf/tiger-bound-for-victoria/2009/03/19/1237054944169.html">half of which will be subscribed by the Australian taxpaper</a>. This is his <strong>appearance fee</strong> and ignores possible winnings. The event will be held at <a href="http://www.kingstonheath.com.au/welcome/index.mhtml">Kingston Heath</a> and I <strong>am already waitlisted for tickets in November</strong>. If I am to be consistent with my judgement on the use of public funds to promote sporting events - I<a href="http://kalimna.blogspot.com/2009/03/commercial-in-confidence.html"> recently attacked Victoria's $47 million payment to a certain dwarfish Grand Prix operator</a> - I should condemn the $2.25 million the public is coffing up for Woods. I do condemn it - though weakly. The reasons for my weaker condemnation of the Woods subsidy are that (i) $2-25 million is a lot less than $47 million and (ii) it might indeed be a good deal for Victoria - though the promised $19 million benefit that the Labor Party suggests will eventuate is out there in fairyland. The benefit will be less than that. Woods is absolutely <em>numero uno</em> in the world of modern golf and this is the major participant sport on earth. He is <strong>not</strong> some racing-car-driving bogan but a gentleman who plays excellent golf.<br />
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I assume the PGA are coffing up the other half of the appearance fee. That's a big ask. I hope they do not get seriously into the red on this one.<br />
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Woods is a freak. He is the greatest golfer of his generation and, <a href="http://kalimna.blogspot.com/2008/04/golf-masters-at-augusta.html">as I have suggested before on this blog</a>, a wonderful person. A guy <a href="http://kalimna.blogspot.com/2006/07/tiger-woods.html">with soul and feeling</a> who can play golf with demonaic precision. I can hardly wait!<br />
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Victoria is again seen as the sporting centre of Australia with NSW a distant second. Indeed Woods will not play in the Australian Open held in NSW shortly after the Masters - his appearance at the Masters will drain resources and crowds from the <strong>now</strong> much less interesting NSW event. NSW do have <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/19/2520534.htm?section=entertainment">Brian Eno to lead the 3 week music festival in Sydney</a> and this should help the no-hopers running that state secure a few Mardi Gras votes. Prejudiced? No, not me.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-54190042392111656412009-03-18T20:18:00.002+11:002009-03-18T23:31:34.839+11:00Martin Feldstein & AIG (& Mankiw)The famous Harvard-based <a href="http://ir.aigcorporate.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=76115&p=irol-govboard">economist Professor Martin Feldstein</a> is on the board of the American insurer AIG that received $200 billion in handouts from the US government and which has just paid over $160 million in bonuses mainly to those managers responsible for its massive financial failure. The bonuses were 'justified' by AIG as retention bonuses designed to retain staff <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25204136-12335,00.html">although 11 executives paid the bonuses quit AIG anyway</a>. <br />
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Feldstein is a conservative Reagan-backer <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President%27s_Economic_Recovery_Advisory_Board">who is now a member of Obama's 'economic recovery team</a>'. Gulp. A great man - Feldstein has won all sorts of awards and is still prospering.<br />
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(Feldstein's <a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/03/trivial-pursuit.html">Harvard colleague Greg Mankiw argues that Americans shouldn't worry about the bonuses to AIG</a> - they are only 0.001% of annual GDP anyway. On this basis every criminal in the US justice system should be released from jail. Disagree with you Greg and <strong>more than just emphatically</strong>. Like Feldstein, Mankiw is one of those nominally skilled economists in the US universities who has no sense of the deep dilemmas that confront the US. Mankiw has learned <em>a little</em> but his intelligence here does not roam beyond the glib and the cute. His views on this issue <strong>illustrate the poverty of academic sensibilities in US universities</strong>).Unknownnoreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-40449034089926191582009-03-18T19:54:00.000+11:002009-03-18T19:54:50.774+11:001992 St Hubert's CabernetLast year I reviewed one of the best wines I drank that year, <a href="http://kalimna.blogspot.com/2007/05/1991-st-huberts-cabernet.html">a <strong>1991 St Hubert's Cabernet</strong></a>. I thought I had exhausted my stock of these great old wines when I found, this evening, a <strong>1992 St Hubert's Cabernet-Merlot</strong> nestled away, the sweet thing that it is, in a sinful back alley of my diminuitive cellar where it had the nape of its neck buried deep between magnums of Froggie plonk I had bought for a special occasion but forgotten about. <br />
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This St Huberts is a gentle old wine with rich cabernet perfumes but with a gorgeous sweet-muted cabernet palate that still has a steely backbone and plenty of cleansing acid. I remember when I bought this wine thinking it was a bit over-oaked. Not at all - now the oak is obviously there but seamlessly integrated with mature fruit. A great wine is so sweet and drinkable that it doesn't challenge. Just a good drop and a reminder that the Yarra Valley can produce red wines which age well as well as good pinots and chardonnay for the bourgeois wine-drinking spoilers.<br />
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It will drink well for another 4-5 years but has probably reached its peak by now.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-57709230128789060482009-03-18T18:22:00.000+11:002009-03-18T18:22:08.856+11:00Executive remunerationHere are the <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/projects/inquiry/executive-remuneration/termsofreference">Terms of Reference</a> for the <em>Productivity Commission</em> inquiry into executive remuneration in Australia. It is a sensible inquiry because remuneration practices are part responsible for the excessive risk-taking and greed that has led to the current financial mess. <br />
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My kneejerk reaction - the type of reaction that this inquiry hopes to forestall - is that remuneration decisions should be approved by the owners of a firm - its shareholders. If these shareholders are too penny-pinching the firm's fortunes will suffer. <br />
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But at least we won't have the old boy's club plotting organised theft of shareholder funds under the business-school-driven myth that huge payments are essential to 'allign' the interests of third-rate business thieves with those of those who employ them, their shareholders. Whatever happened to old-fashioned morality and the desire to maintain a decent reputation? I assume the business schools see such issues as irrelevant if you can devise a clever enough incentive contract. <br />
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Shareholders should call the shots and bear the consequences of doing so. <br />
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I'll follow the PC deliberations and change my views if they provide effective counterarguments. I'd be interested if readers could think of <em>sensible</em> counterarguments.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-66219609258945393902009-03-18T17:54:00.004+11:002009-03-18T20:40:56.821+11:00Papal bullThe <a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/faith/article5927964.ece?&EMC-Bltn=PPWCDA">Pope has reiterated his opposition to the use of condoms in AIDs ravaged Africa</a>. The inhumanity of the Pope's position is self-evident. My basic comment - how can anyone take <strong>anything</strong> this man says seriously?<br />
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22 million people in Africa have HIV. In three Southern African countries the prevalence of AIDs exceeds 20% of the population. The Pope advocates abstinence as a God-driven policy stance. As is well known telling randy men and women not to have sex won't work and this failure (in the absence of condom use) can kill. The God-driven abstinence policy will inflict a horrible death on millions <a href="http://www.avert.org/aafrica.htm">when the use of condoms is a cheap and effective way of avoiding this problem</a>. 2 million people <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS_in_Africa">died in 2005</a> - 6000 people <em>per day</em>.<br />
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The difficulty is accentuated by <a href="http://www.30giorni.it/us/articolo.asp?id=10812">the growth of Catholicism in Africa</a> - numbers have trebled since 1978 to nearly 150 million in 2004. This is about 17% of the total population. Worldwide over this period Catholicism has its fraction of total population falling but voodoo still apparently sells in Africa.<br />
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The Pope's reason for sprouting this nonsense? Apart from his obvious expertise in matters of sex and human relationships I assume that this is because God told him what to do on his personal hotline. It is a 'deficit of morals' issue you see. Sex is something intrinsically evil unless you seek to breed and this should only occur between a heterosexual couple who remain monogamous forever. Break this law and you deserve to die. It is God's retribution for being randy and not listening to the Pope's bull.<br />
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Words can't express my contempt for these damaging, stupid views. Tolerance for callous stupidity has its limits and hopefully recognition of the stupidity here will have general equilibrium effects of denting this man's powerbase among the gullible in Africa and, indeed, around the world.<br />
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<strong>Update:</strong> The Pope's representative in the blogosophere is a cretin CL who posts anonymously under the distinguished label <em>Currency Lad</em>. In the past he inferred I had questionable sexual preferences because I defended some photos of Bill Hensen. I thought of suing this toad but he is anonymous and most people treat him as a joke. His <a href="http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/03/18/disgusting/#comment-663228">comments are over at the sewerage blog <em>LP</em></a>. The more bigotted and stupid the Pope gets the more his nitwit supporters see him as defending principle.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-14505387922116778492009-03-17T22:06:00.001+11:002009-03-17T22:18:18.568+11:00JokesA former boss of mine (<a href="http://www.misu.ait.ac.th/NewsAndEvents/newsletterData/HTMLFormat/iss1no7/PROFESSORBANK.htm">now deceased</a>)* collected jokes. He wrote them down and filed them and, on having enjoyed a few drinks, could recite joke after joke until the bar shut down. I envied him intensely as although I love good jokes - particularly vulgar ones - I can never remember them. I laugh like mad when they are first told but the next day I cannot recall them. Now <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/17/science/17angi.html?th&emc=th">I know why</a>. Its the unpredictability of their outcomes that does it:<br />
<blockquote>"Really great jokes....punch the lights out of <em>do re mi</em>. They work not by conforming to pattern recognition routines but by subverting them. “Jokes work because they deal with the unexpected, starting in one direction and then veering off into another,” said Robert Provine, a professor of psychology at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, and the author of “Laughter: A Scientific Investigation.” “What makes a joke successful are the same properties that can make it difficult to remember.” ''</blockquote>This is neurology and memory research hard at work.<br />
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* Many years after I saw him last Bob B. published several books including two outstanding efforts in recreational, applied mathematics <em>Towing Icebergs, Falling Dominoes, and Other Adventures in Applied Mathematics</em> and <em>Slicing Pizzas, Racing Turtles, and Further Adventures in Applied Mathematics. </em>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-4679771480364110012009-03-16T18:12:00.002+11:002009-03-17T21:16:34.363+11:00Chinese debt worriesChina is 'worried about' <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/14/world/asia/14china.html?_r=1&th&emc=th">its $1trillion holding of US Treasury Bills</a>. The Chinese Prime Minister, Mr Wen, complains that the US has spent too much and saved too little - without mentioning that the consumption boom was funded in large part by Chinese lending. Mr Wen can't sell the debt - its price would collapse - and is presumably fearful that the world's public borrowing binge will eventually drive up interest rates and again inflict huge capital losses on the Chinese holding. Indeed Mr Wen must continue to lend to the US in order to prevent this happening. I assume the possibility of a collapse in the US dollar, fostered in part by debt concerns and the US option to inflate it away, would also have crossed Mr Wen's mind. <br />
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This is interesting. Mr C wants to sell lots of gunk to Mr A. Mr A has a demand for the gunk and buys it by issuing Mr C IOUs at low interest rates. The IOUs are backed up by Mr A's reputation alone but Mr A finds himself in a bind and needs to borrow so much more that the value of the IOUs is called into place because interest rates might now need to be raised. Even if Mr A defaulted on the IOUs (or more realistically forced their value down) he would not lose a lot. Eventually Mr C would find it in his interest to forgive Mr A and to resume selling gunk again. Mr A, despite bewilderingly complex current problems, remains well and truly in the box seat.<br />
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<strong>Afterthought: </strong>This situation of the weak exploiting the strong has parallels <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/16/business/16rescue.html?th&emc=th">but is not equivalent to the US Government bailout of firms like A.I.G</a>.. The US bailed out A.I.G. with $170 billion because the firm was 'too big to fail' and threatened the failure of the international financial system. The bargaining strength in this difficult situation lies with A.I.G. which is probably the reason they felt they could get away with applying hundreds of millions of the bailout in bonuses to the parts of AIG that created the problem. And this strength infuriates the bailout-er. Larence Summers says “There are a lot of terrible things that have happened in the last 18 months, but what’s happened at A.I.G. is the most outrageous.” Ben Bernanke says similarly “Of all the events and all of the things we’ve done in the last 18 months, the single one that makes me the angriest, that gives me the most angst, is the intervention with A.I.G.” But the bailout must proceed!Unknownnoreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-118001627766601352009-03-14T17:09:00.003+11:002009-03-14T17:46:53.849+11:00Bushfire damageI drove along the Hume Highway going to and from Albury over the past two days following a teaching assignment there. The fire damage along the highway runs for nearly 20 km north from about the 50 km point north of Melbourne. It is striking that, for 12 km, the fire followed the centre nature strip along the highway - in places it seemed (I couldn't be sure) that this strip helped spread the fire*. The fire obviously raced along gullies and tree-lined ridges.<br /><br />Pine plantations and areas of native forest are completely destroyed over large areas. I also noticed that, even in large paddocks with only a few very isolated trees, the fire destroyed all vegetation. Sparseness of trees didn't help stem the ferocity of this monster.<br /><br />Coming back into Melbourne I detoured via Whittlesea to the area west of the fire centre at Kinglake. I admit feeling ambivalent about what some might describe as a ghoulish interest but the truth is I <strong>was</strong> interested in seeing what had happened - among other things to valued bushwalking and birdwatching sites in Kinglake NP. I got about 4 km from Kinglake - I didn't get to the Park - when I was turned back by police. Entry into Kinglake will be for locals only for the next 2 weeks at least.<br /><br />The scene in the area west of Kinglake is nightmarish although words can't express what is there. The whole area looks as if it has been intensely 'baked' and 'burnt'. There is still a smell of ash in the air. It is more than a fire - its a severe 'scorching'. There is not a blade of grass or any understory in much of the burnt out areas. Blackened tree trunks grow from blackened soils and stand starkly in landscapes that stretch out for miles over the Yarra Ranges. The fire was clearly very hot but also very extensive. Destroyed houses - one tragically that I saw just got caught by the extreme southern end of the fire - look like bomb sites. I have read exactly this description in the media but didn't intuit the reality. Chimney stakes stand but the houses themselves have been blasted to pieces. Farm sheds have been warped and scorched in the heat.<br /><br />Again I was struck by the way the fire front charged across <strong>largely cleared</strong> farmland areas burning everything in its path. There were no simple escapes. <br /><br />Driving through these areas is an emotional experience. You <strong>can</strong> sense - at least to some degree - the horror and fear that those living in these communities must have felt.<br /><br />* A dark side to wildlife corridors. Not only do they spread unwanted 'weed' species rapidly they promote the spread of forest fires. Yet maintaining corridors provides insurance against climate change shocks and limits island biogeographic extinctions.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-89364747802993823332009-03-14T16:54:00.001+11:002009-03-15T10:49:27.724+11:00Commercial-in-confidenceFor the right to operate the <em>Australian Grand Prix</em> in two weeks time <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/national/47m-fee-a-formula-for-easy-profits-20090313-8xxq.html?page=-1">the Victorian Government will pay Bernie Ecclestone $47 million</a>. In a civilised society politicians who abuse public trust in this way should be sacked and then jailed. It is a totally disgraceful waste of public monies. <br />
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The $47m figure has only just been revealed. Apparently Ecclestone threatened to take the Grand Prix away from any Government which reveals his fee. State Premier Brumby when asked of the fee claimed it is 'commercial-in-confidence'. <strong>I wonder.</strong> I suppose I have a nasty, suspicious mind but could it be that political leaders from Kennett to Brumby have paid these bribes to Ecclestone to secure a handful of petrol head votes from among the morons who go in for this 'sport'. It would spoil the pollie fun to have to tell the adult population of Victoria - most of whom have zero interest in this retarded activity - that they are paying for it.<br />
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The Auditor General of Victoria claims that <a href="http://kalimna.blogspot.com/2007/05/state-government-funding-of-special.html">benefits from the Grand Prix had been overstated by $100 million</a>. There is no demonstrated net economic benefit to the state from it. Let's end this nonsense foreover - no more attempts to buy a few lousy votes for an environmentally-unsound, pointless activity. If moron petrol heads want to watch this sort of activity let them pay for it entirely and include in that the cost of the externalities (reduced amenity values, emissions, noise and increased traffic congestion around the venue).Unknownnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22031270.post-12024732239406236862009-03-12T20:56:00.000+11:002009-03-12T20:56:41.214+11:00Newspaper futuresA lot of printer's ink has been spilt on the issue of the future of newspapers. I buy three each day (The <em>AFR</em>, <em>The Australian</em> and (on a discount offer) <em>The Age</em>), My wife likes the <em>Herald-Sun</em>. Our families' purchases are a ridiculous exception to the standard view that newspaper demands are collapsing. This <em>NYT</em> article claims - in relation to the US:<br />
<blockquote>For more than two centuries, newspapers have been the indispensable source of public information and a check on the abuses of government and other powerful interests. And they still reach a vast and growing audience. Daily print circulation has dropped from a peak of 62 million two decades ago to around 49 million, and online readership has risen faster, to almost 75 million Americans and 3.7 billion page views in January, according to Nielsen Online.</blockquote>This is a remarkable decline in print and surge in online patronage. What is happening? One of the difficulties is that a lot of advertising is going online. Another is that 'entrepreneurial' newspaper bosses have laden newspapers with a stack of debt from their purchasing binges around 2005-07 when news media prices were at peak levels. <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/Media-Arts-and-Sports/20081016-Can-the-Murdoch-and-Fairfax-families-support-their-debt-laden-public-empires.html">The Fairfax family has problems in this regard in Australia and Murdoch has massive debt everywhere</a>.<br />
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On the consumer side attitudes are changing too. I read the main articles in the <em>NYT</em> almost every night online. This has the effect of reducing my interest in the Australian media. It is also time-consuming - I have less time to read newspapers. My newspaper arrives around 6-00am and if I am up earlier I go online to see what they are saying. This represents my gradual shift away from the printed media - its a shift that I think is likely to be widespread.<br />
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And newspapers are expensive - the online reads are free - even if they are not provided you can get the title of the article you are ofter - this is normally available - you can <em>Google</em> that and dig up the article somewhere. (The exception to this is the AFR - it is expensive and I must buy it to gain the very selective information I want from it). <br />
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I have no objection to a pure online service but I don't see how the economics will pan out. Charging is difficult since there is so much free competition. The online providers deliver a lot of social value but I don't see how that will yield a buck for them. <br />
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Interesting futures here.....Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1