Britain's Chief Scientist (we have one too) David King warns that global temperatures will rise 3 degrees C in the next 100 years wrecking half the world's wildlife reserves, destroying major forest systems and putting 400 million more people at risk of hunger. The issue is to address these inevitable concerns with offsetting investments while continuing to work towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The claims are based on the Hadley Centre's, Stabilising Climate to Avoid Dangerous Climate Change.
I think it is an interesting, practical perspective. Assuming policy failure is plausible or even, given lags, inevitable what should we do? In terms of wildlife conservation I think wildife corridor strategies (and here and here) that allow species migrations are essential to avoid mass extinctions. Some are discussed in Michael Archer and Bob Beale's provocative book Going Native.
We need policies for dealing with the effects of global warming as well as, of course, policies to mitigate it.
Saturday, April 15, 2006
Friday, April 14, 2006
Koyaanisqatsi
This evening I saw Koyaanisqatsi: Life Out of Balance the first movie in the Qatsi trilogy. Although released in 1983 it only became available on DVD late in 2002. Even though it is apparently something of a cult-classic, I’ve not heard of it. A new movie in the making, of the same genre, is Savage Eden/Holy Smoke.
Koyaanisqatsi is directed by Godfrey Reggio with music composed by minimalist composer Philip Glass and cinematography by Ron Fricke. All three partners (director, composer and photographer) are crucial to this film’s success. The cinematography itself is mostly slow motion and time-lapse photography. As a documentary it contains no narration and relies heavily on the hypnotic music to set the film's tone. It focuses on natural and person-made environments, the relation between these and the cypher-like people who live in this interface. Indeed, one is forced to compare nature with non-natural environments.
The film is based on the Hopi word 'koyaanisqatsi', meaning ‘life of moral corruption and turmoil’ or ‘life out of balance’. Reggo has indicated that each viewer can draw what they like from the film and tries not to be prescriptive. Indeed I found the photography so stunningly beautiful that I was diverted from its 'message'. The photography's interaction with the music provides a fascinating view of a driven, frenzied metropolis as well as the drama of nature.
The film views people as anonymous participants in alien environments and clearly has a critical mission – some have gone so far as to describe it as a ‘satanic meditation’ though Reggio spent his adolescent years in a monastery of the Christian Brothers order. Indeed rather than 'satanic', the film has almost monastic discipline. Moreover, its message while presented in a artistic way, has a scary and sinister side. Reggio has said of the Qatsi series in general:
The Qatsi series is brilliantly reviewed by Salon where Shana Lipton refers to the series as “Weapons of Mass Instruction’. I thought Koyaanisqatsi was an exquisite, entertaining experience. It grows slowly over you – initially as one of those ‘high end’ artistic films that you think you really should like but suspect you won’t. But the skillful, dramatic photography and music draw you into an unusual experience. I’ll hunt around for the remaining DVDs in the Qatsi series and have searched the web for discussion of other nonverbal films – an informative site is here. I'd be interested to know how how this movie went financially. Francis Ford Coppola lent his name to the enterprise as an 'executive producer' which must have given it a boost but I cannot imagine this beautiful, though I imagine expensive film, competing in a mass market.
Koyaanisqatsi is directed by Godfrey Reggio with music composed by minimalist composer Philip Glass and cinematography by Ron Fricke. All three partners (director, composer and photographer) are crucial to this film’s success. The cinematography itself is mostly slow motion and time-lapse photography. As a documentary it contains no narration and relies heavily on the hypnotic music to set the film's tone. It focuses on natural and person-made environments, the relation between these and the cypher-like people who live in this interface. Indeed, one is forced to compare nature with non-natural environments.
The film is based on the Hopi word 'koyaanisqatsi', meaning ‘life of moral corruption and turmoil’ or ‘life out of balance’. Reggo has indicated that each viewer can draw what they like from the film and tries not to be prescriptive. Indeed I found the photography so stunningly beautiful that I was diverted from its 'message'. The photography's interaction with the music provides a fascinating view of a driven, frenzied metropolis as well as the drama of nature.
The film views people as anonymous participants in alien environments and clearly has a critical mission – some have gone so far as to describe it as a ‘satanic meditation’ though Reggio spent his adolescent years in a monastery of the Christian Brothers order. Indeed rather than 'satanic', the film has almost monastic discipline. Moreover, its message while presented in a artistic way, has a scary and sinister side. Reggio has said of the Qatsi series in general:
" ...these films have never been about the effect of technology, of industry on people. It's been that everyone: politics, education, things of the financial structure, the nation state structure, language, the culture, religion, all of that exists within the host of technology. So it's not the effect of it's that everything exists within technology]. It's not that we use technology, we live technology. Technology has become as ubiquitous as the air we breathe...".The film was made over about six years. Three were spent shooting it while Glass and Reggio spent the other three years composing a score to fit the film and recutting the footage to fit the score. You can enjoy the music without watching the film – it is at least 50% of the experience.
The Qatsi series is brilliantly reviewed by Salon where Shana Lipton refers to the series as “Weapons of Mass Instruction’. I thought Koyaanisqatsi was an exquisite, entertaining experience. It grows slowly over you – initially as one of those ‘high end’ artistic films that you think you really should like but suspect you won’t. But the skillful, dramatic photography and music draw you into an unusual experience. I’ll hunt around for the remaining DVDs in the Qatsi series and have searched the web for discussion of other nonverbal films – an informative site is here. I'd be interested to know how how this movie went financially. Francis Ford Coppola lent his name to the enterprise as an 'executive producer' which must have given it a boost but I cannot imagine this beautiful, though I imagine expensive film, competing in a mass market.
Thursday, April 13, 2006
AWB scandals?
During the sanctions imposed on Iraq the United Nations agreed to allow the Iraqis to sell oil for US dollars to buy food in international markets. The intention was to enable the food purchases but to limit the possibilities for Saddam from aggrandising himself or from purchasing weapons with the dollars. But Saddam controlled access to the Iraqi market and those trying to sell food there and had to deal with him.
So the Australian Wheat Board apparently paid the regime almost $300 million in bribes to secure access. Saddam's regime got kickbacks (he effectively taxed the trade), the people of Iraq got the wheat which helped prevent them from starving, the AWB secured a valuable Middle East sales contract and Australia's left and the press got the chance to concoct conspiracy theories about how the Federal Government knew about the trade all along and didn't try to stop it. Why am I not excited about the terrible AWB scandal?
From the perspective of the AWB were not the kickbacks just the cost of doing business with a corrupt regime? This is not just cynical realpolitik. Would the people of Iraq been better off had the AWB wheat sales not been made? I guess US wheat vendors might have been better-off and sales might even have been made without kickbacks or with lower kickbacks. As for the left and the media - they would have found some other issue to kick the government over but they might have had to think a bit harder which would have definitely made them worse-off.
The kickbacks were wrong but I cannot get too angry about the AWB's actions. Nor can I get overly concerned with the Cole Inquiry. I agree with Greg Sheridan - The government won't lose a vote on the basis of this and Alexander Downer's performance showed class. John Howard subsequently performed well also - indeed very well. The left in Australia are digging desparately for dirt but it is hard going because, ignoring the questionable behaviour of the AWB, the Government's story has stuck:
So the Australian Wheat Board apparently paid the regime almost $300 million in bribes to secure access. Saddam's regime got kickbacks (he effectively taxed the trade), the people of Iraq got the wheat which helped prevent them from starving, the AWB secured a valuable Middle East sales contract and Australia's left and the press got the chance to concoct conspiracy theories about how the Federal Government knew about the trade all along and didn't try to stop it. Why am I not excited about the terrible AWB scandal?
From the perspective of the AWB were not the kickbacks just the cost of doing business with a corrupt regime? This is not just cynical realpolitik. Would the people of Iraq been better off had the AWB wheat sales not been made? I guess US wheat vendors might have been better-off and sales might even have been made without kickbacks or with lower kickbacks. As for the left and the media - they would have found some other issue to kick the government over but they might have had to think a bit harder which would have definitely made them worse-off.
The kickbacks were wrong but I cannot get too angry about the AWB's actions. Nor can I get overly concerned with the Cole Inquiry. I agree with Greg Sheridan - The government won't lose a vote on the basis of this and Alexander Downer's performance showed class. John Howard subsequently performed well also - indeed very well. The left in Australia are digging desparately for dirt but it is hard going because, ignoring the questionable behaviour of the AWB, the Government's story has stuck:
After three months of hearings and despite numerous allegations and warning bells, no evidence has emerged that he (i.e. John Howard) or other ministers were told definitively that AWB was paying kickbacks. The Government may have been naive or indulging in wishful thinking in wanting the allegations to go away. It may have been culpably negligent in not pursuing its inquiries more forcefully. But its denials that it knew conclusively that the bribery was taking place have held.
Wednesday, April 12, 2006
Mid week review
I spent an enjoyable Wednesday afternoon chatting with W. Max Corden, one of Australia's eminent economists, at University House, University of Melbourne.
I've known Max for quite a few years and enjoy his company and intelligence. He is writing a paper on the US current account but our discussions covered the war in Iraq, the AWB, Melbourne's architectural history, US and Chinese productivity growth and Australian immigration policy. I walked off into the evening feeling that I am, despite my occasional grizzles, lucky to be an academic pursuing my research interests and having colleagues like Max to talk to. It just isn't 'work' in a conventional sense. If you want a sample of Max's intelligence I recommend this.
The Easter weekend is coming up. I won't be going to church but I will head north of Melbourne to Puckapunyal and not to join the army. I am going there to look for a pair of barking owls (ninox connivens) that live on the military base there. As a recreational birdwatcher this is a species I have never seen - a new 'tick' would be a buzz.
Yeah, its not dramatic but neither is life outside airport fiction and Hollywood. I am set for a good Easter break and hope you are too. As usual if you have views on my blog please voice them here.
I've known Max for quite a few years and enjoy his company and intelligence. He is writing a paper on the US current account but our discussions covered the war in Iraq, the AWB, Melbourne's architectural history, US and Chinese productivity growth and Australian immigration policy. I walked off into the evening feeling that I am, despite my occasional grizzles, lucky to be an academic pursuing my research interests and having colleagues like Max to talk to. It just isn't 'work' in a conventional sense. If you want a sample of Max's intelligence I recommend this.
The Easter weekend is coming up. I won't be going to church but I will head north of Melbourne to Puckapunyal and not to join the army. I am going there to look for a pair of barking owls (ninox connivens) that live on the military base there. As a recreational birdwatcher this is a species I have never seen - a new 'tick' would be a buzz.
Yeah, its not dramatic but neither is life outside airport fiction and Hollywood. I am set for a good Easter break and hope you are too. As usual if you have views on my blog please voice them here.
Tuesday, April 11, 2006
Foolish myths
The aboriginees camping at King’s Domain near Melbourne’s Botanic Gardens are asserting ‘sovereignty’ over a ‘sacred fire’ that has been lit there. They originally camped during the Commonwealth Games to embarrass white Victorians.
The area, they claim, is a ‘sacred site’. It contains five painted eucalypt poles, adorned with the spirit people, the Rainbow Serpent and red ribbons, above a granite ‘burial rock’ honouring the aboriginees of Victoria. The skeletal remains of 38 aboriginals are buried here. The burial was a tribute to the people whose long relationship with the land was destroyed by Europeans.
A judge, Justice King, has told told the aboriginees to decamp by Thursday but the fire itself can remain. The fire can be maintained by Melbourne's traditional owners without the need for ‘camping paraphernalia’. The aboriginals claimed this as a significant victory although, tomorrow at least, they will have to keep the fire alight in cold temperatures and pouring rain. Good luck, my friends.
This reminds me of the Hindmarsh Bridge affair. Building a bridge to Hindmarsh Island was supposed to reduce the fertility of aboriginal women. Much was said about the genuiness of claims on this occasion but this is irrelevant. It is false to claim that building bridges anywhere has an effect on women’s fertility. Nor is King’s Domain a ‘sacred area’. Nor are fires lit a few weeks (or indeed 10,000 years ago) ago ‘sacred fires’. Thinking back to the injustices done by white men to aboriginees should not suggest perpetuating myths – aboriginees must get smart - what is needed are more aboriginal doctors, lawyers and politicians. Better aboriginal heath and education. Aboriginees should discard myths and face up to the very real difficulties of, for example, alcoholism and child abuse that confront their communities.
It is, of course, somewhat inconsistent to point the finger at superstitution among aboriginals when many Australian whites base their existence on equally silly myths. We eat and drink the blood of a defunct Christ when we drink wine and eat wafers in a Church. No we don’t! It is again nonsense but, in its favour, it is nonsense that wealthy white Australia can afford while aboriginees cannot. Forget sacred sites, fertility-reducing bridges and so on. Aboriginees should concentrate on the issues of health, education, employment and full-integration into mainstream Australian society. Don't waste time on irrational protests based on irrational beliefs.
The area, they claim, is a ‘sacred site’. It contains five painted eucalypt poles, adorned with the spirit people, the Rainbow Serpent and red ribbons, above a granite ‘burial rock’ honouring the aboriginees of Victoria. The skeletal remains of 38 aboriginals are buried here. The burial was a tribute to the people whose long relationship with the land was destroyed by Europeans.
A judge, Justice King, has told told the aboriginees to decamp by Thursday but the fire itself can remain. The fire can be maintained by Melbourne's traditional owners without the need for ‘camping paraphernalia’. The aboriginals claimed this as a significant victory although, tomorrow at least, they will have to keep the fire alight in cold temperatures and pouring rain. Good luck, my friends.
This reminds me of the Hindmarsh Bridge affair. Building a bridge to Hindmarsh Island was supposed to reduce the fertility of aboriginal women. Much was said about the genuiness of claims on this occasion but this is irrelevant. It is false to claim that building bridges anywhere has an effect on women’s fertility. Nor is King’s Domain a ‘sacred area’. Nor are fires lit a few weeks (or indeed 10,000 years ago) ago ‘sacred fires’. Thinking back to the injustices done by white men to aboriginees should not suggest perpetuating myths – aboriginees must get smart - what is needed are more aboriginal doctors, lawyers and politicians. Better aboriginal heath and education. Aboriginees should discard myths and face up to the very real difficulties of, for example, alcoholism and child abuse that confront their communities.
It is, of course, somewhat inconsistent to point the finger at superstitution among aboriginals when many Australian whites base their existence on equally silly myths. We eat and drink the blood of a defunct Christ when we drink wine and eat wafers in a Church. No we don’t! It is again nonsense but, in its favour, it is nonsense that wealthy white Australia can afford while aboriginees cannot. Forget sacred sites, fertility-reducing bridges and so on. Aboriginees should concentrate on the issues of health, education, employment and full-integration into mainstream Australian society. Don't waste time on irrational protests based on irrational beliefs.
Let big countries pollute more?
The NewScientist this week asks if large, low-population density countries, such as the US and Australia, should be permitted to release more pollution than more densely populated countries such as Japan, China and India. This argument might be employed in post-Kyoto protocol negotiations. Indeed, adopting this view, may be the only way to drag the US into reducing emissions.
Countries like Australia and the US have abundant natural vegetation to absorb pollution and more fields and forests to provide the world's natural resources. They have high per capita energy consumption and hence large ecological footprints. For example, each US citizen needs 10 hectares of land to sustain themselves with resources and pollutant-absorptive capacity. But these same countries have plenty of land to meet these needs. It is countries which overshoot their footprints with resource consumption which are the villains:
Under the Kyoto protocol countries can offset emissions with 'purpose-built' carbon-sink forests. The 'footprint' formula sees whole landscapes as offsetting emissions. The global equity implications of this reasoning are difficult but, with long-run global economic convergence, it might make sense. There are attempts to refine the footprint idea to make it more operationally-sound and to account for differences in family size, land use type and so on. It then might become a key element in, for example, greenhouse gas emission reduction agreements
Countries like Australia and the US have abundant natural vegetation to absorb pollution and more fields and forests to provide the world's natural resources. They have high per capita energy consumption and hence large ecological footprints. For example, each US citizen needs 10 hectares of land to sustain themselves with resources and pollutant-absorptive capacity. But these same countries have plenty of land to meet these needs. It is countries which overshoot their footprints with resource consumption which are the villains:
'Such footprints represent a partial measure of the extent to which the planet, its regions, or nations are moving along a sustainable development pathway. ... national footprints alert humanity to the necessity of living within the regenerative capacity of the biosphere in order to ensure 'environmental sustainability'.When a population's footprint is smaller than its biocapacity it is a sustainable. Americans and Australians have large footprints but their biocapacities are large so they are sustainable. This suggests that national emissions should converge on a figure proportional to population per unit land area. Moreover, this type of policy may be acceptable to the US - in the long-run it must merely live within its biocapacity for sustainability to prevail.
Under the Kyoto protocol countries can offset emissions with 'purpose-built' carbon-sink forests. The 'footprint' formula sees whole landscapes as offsetting emissions. The global equity implications of this reasoning are difficult but, with long-run global economic convergence, it might make sense. There are attempts to refine the footprint idea to make it more operationally-sound and to account for differences in family size, land use type and so on. It then might become a key element in, for example, greenhouse gas emission reduction agreements
Porfolio matters - being cautious
On February 10 I established a hypothetical $100,000 share portfolio to see how I would go. With the market booming I have decided to cash in my biggest chip. Today I sold 1,000 BHP-Billiton for $30-25 this afternoon compared to my nominal purchase price of $24-75 two months ago giving a profit of 22.2% over the period.
Although my Australian Agriculture holdings have appreciated 12% and my Gowings shares by 6.5% I think there might be more in these so I will hold on. Australian Agriculture has bought into a Wagyu beef property which augers well for its future. The two speculative stocks I hold have been disappointing despite claimed good news from Biotron on the ability of one of its anti-virals to combat bird flu. I charged $50 brokerage on the BHP-Billiton transaction and repaid the bank the $650 I owed it. My portfolio stands as:
- 10,000 Gowings worth $29,600.
- 15,000 Australian Agriculture worth $27,900.
- 50,000 Hostworks worth $11,500
- 30,000 Biotron worth $7,500
- Cash at bank of $29,080.
so overall I am ahead by 6.5% after 2 months. Its nice to have some cash. I will take up a 2 for 7 rights issue from Biotron over the next few days at 23 cents unless the price 'on market' dips below this.
I am interested in the speculative gold stock Renison which I would be interested in buying at around 32 cents. I remain interested also in the uranium spec Redport which should please my greenie mates.
Note: This is a hypothetical portfolio and I am not urging anyone to buy or sell anything. But I might well trade in these stocks.
Update: Today (11/4/06) I took up 8572 Biotron rights at their issue price of 23 cents costing $1972. I also bought 25,000 Renison at 0.325 cents costing $8125. Brokerage was $25. This reduces my cash at the bank to $18,983.
VCEC on congestion
The submission I co-wrote with Andrew Hawkins on ‘Economic Approaches to Traffic Congestion Control in Greater Melbourne’ seems to have had an impact (at least in terms of repeated citations) on the Victorian Competition & Efficiency Commission (VCEC) draft report making the right choices that addresses Melbourne’s congestion issues. These documents, as well as the consultant’s report defining transport congestion are on the VCEC website.
I am surprised with the positive response to our submission since our advocacy of congestion pricing was inconsistent with the prior views of the Treasurer, John Brumby and the Premier, Steve Bracks. Even our proposal for a cordon pricing scheme gets a mention in the draft though it is certainly not proposed. Suggestions we made to renegotiate contracts with CityLink and EastLink to force peak load pricing rather than uniform tolls – widely criticised by nervous nellies in academe and in the blogosphere – have been taken up in the draft report.
The draft report is a useful resource for those interested in congestion planning. I am thinking about a response to it so, if you have any comments on it, please help me out and post them here.
I am surprised with the positive response to our submission since our advocacy of congestion pricing was inconsistent with the prior views of the Treasurer, John Brumby and the Premier, Steve Bracks. Even our proposal for a cordon pricing scheme gets a mention in the draft though it is certainly not proposed. Suggestions we made to renegotiate contracts with CityLink and EastLink to force peak load pricing rather than uniform tolls – widely criticised by nervous nellies in academe and in the blogosphere – have been taken up in the draft report.
The draft report is a useful resource for those interested in congestion planning. I am thinking about a response to it so, if you have any comments on it, please help me out and post them here.
Monday, April 10, 2006
Common knowledge
Joyce: What, reduced to their simplest reciprocal form, were Tzara's thoughts about Ball's thoughts about Tzara, and, Tzara's thoughts about Tzara's thoughts about Ball?
Tzara: He thought that he thought that he knew what he was thinking, whereas he knew that he knew that he knew that he did not.
Joyce: And did he?
Tzara: He did and he didn't.
(Tom Stoppard, Travesties).
Tzara: He thought that he thought that he knew what he was thinking, whereas he knew that he knew that he knew that he did not.
Joyce: And did he?
Tzara: He did and he didn't.
(Tom Stoppard, Travesties).
Thanks Jim Bugden
Hairgrass
La Trobe University scientists (German Spangenberg and Ulrik John) have made a breakthrough that promises to save farmers worldwide billions of dollars a year and boost grain harvests. Details are here.
The discovery of an anti-freeze gene in a plant in Antarctica (hairgrass), that survives temperatures of -30 degrees C, should strengthen rural economies by preventing cereals and grasses being destroyed by frost. The scientists isolated the gene sequence responsible for the Antarctic plant's frost resistance and inserted it into a test plant giving it under certain conditions the same frost-resistant characteristics.
The discovery has huge implications for agriculture in view of crop losses to frost each year. Globally, 15% of agricultural production is lost to frost. Farmers in Victoria and South Australia have barley crops that are damaged by frost, while wheat belts in NSW and Western Australia also suffer significant damage.
I wonder if there will be greeny opposition to using such genetically modified crops?
The discovery of an anti-freeze gene in a plant in Antarctica (hairgrass), that survives temperatures of -30 degrees C, should strengthen rural economies by preventing cereals and grasses being destroyed by frost. The scientists isolated the gene sequence responsible for the Antarctic plant's frost resistance and inserted it into a test plant giving it under certain conditions the same frost-resistant characteristics.
The discovery has huge implications for agriculture in view of crop losses to frost each year. Globally, 15% of agricultural production is lost to frost. Farmers in Victoria and South Australia have barley crops that are damaged by frost, while wheat belts in NSW and Western Australia also suffer significant damage.
I wonder if there will be greeny opposition to using such genetically modified crops?
Fraudband
David Crowe in the The Australian Financial Review this weekend (subscription only) argues that Australia's 2.8 million broadband users get less but pay more for their connections than consumers in any other country. A movie that takes 6 hours to download in Australia could be downloaded in Canada in 40 minutes. Canadians pay $54 per month for unlimited downloads and speeds of 5 megabits per second while Australians pay $99-95 to Telstra for a download limit of 10 gigabytes at 1/4 the speed.
Punishing metering restrictions discourages online music, video, games and interactive services. It also limits broadband use in education, science and trade. It also imposes more basic costs of just communicating. High costs of broadband access lead to low levels of market penetration and low effective network externalities - Australian per capita incomes are 75% of those in the US but levels of broadband use in households is 33% compared to the US's 71%.
The speed issue in Australia stems from Telstra capping the speed of its digital subscriber line network at 1.5 megabits per second even though many phone lines and modems are capable of much more. To ramp up speeds Telstra and others would have to widen pipes at the centre of their networks and the large investments required make little sense to Telstra given its dominant market position in the broadband market.
Telstra's Trujillo offered to spend $3.1 billion on an optical fibbre network in the cities if the Government would chip in $2.6 billion for the bush and give Telstra regulatory concessions. This would have greatly increased network speed for a net subsidy cost of $130 per Australian. The Government declined fearing of further cementing Telstra's monopoly position. Australia's low population densities prejudice the economics.
At the core of these issues is that Telstra is a private firm that has primary responsibility to its shareholders. Providing close to universal access to high speed, low cost broadband would give the Australian economy a long-term boost and overcome disadvantages of being a large, sparcely-populated country. The Australian Governmentt should bite the bullet and negotiate the minimum transfers necessary to drive this investment in our long-term future.
Punishing metering restrictions discourages online music, video, games and interactive services. It also limits broadband use in education, science and trade. It also imposes more basic costs of just communicating. High costs of broadband access lead to low levels of market penetration and low effective network externalities - Australian per capita incomes are 75% of those in the US but levels of broadband use in households is 33% compared to the US's 71%.
The speed issue in Australia stems from Telstra capping the speed of its digital subscriber line network at 1.5 megabits per second even though many phone lines and modems are capable of much more. To ramp up speeds Telstra and others would have to widen pipes at the centre of their networks and the large investments required make little sense to Telstra given its dominant market position in the broadband market.
Telstra's Trujillo offered to spend $3.1 billion on an optical fibbre network in the cities if the Government would chip in $2.6 billion for the bush and give Telstra regulatory concessions. This would have greatly increased network speed for a net subsidy cost of $130 per Australian. The Government declined fearing of further cementing Telstra's monopoly position. Australia's low population densities prejudice the economics.
At the core of these issues is that Telstra is a private firm that has primary responsibility to its shareholders. Providing close to universal access to high speed, low cost broadband would give the Australian economy a long-term boost and overcome disadvantages of being a large, sparcely-populated country. The Australian Governmentt should bite the bullet and negotiate the minimum transfers necessary to drive this investment in our long-term future.
The death clock
The Death Clock site predicts how long you will live given your gender, date of birth, smoking status, BMI (this will be calculated for you given your weight and height) and degree of optimism/pessimism.
I got this from from Cordeloia Fine, A Mind of its Own, which, among other things, discusses how the brain 'protects us' with vanity. The claim is that with respect to expected lifetime, we all believe we will live longer than we are likely to. This is similar to the view that we all believe we are better drivers than the next guy, but more specifically it relates to work in terror management theory showing how we deal with the prospect of inevitable death. According to Pyszczynski et al. (2004) a healthy brain is:
'...a protective shield designed to control the potential for terror than results from awareness of the horrifying possibility that we humans are merely transcient animals groping to survive in a meaningly universe, destined only to die and decay'.
My instincts are to claim that the death clock absurdly overpredicts the pace of my approach towards boot hill - so my own reactions accord with the theory. Note however that the Death Clock forecasts are not nationality-specific and place a lot of weight on BMI - moderate degrees of being overweight penalise your life expectancy strongly. As I have argued elsewhere this link is by no means firmly established. The Death Clock site carries weight-control advertising which raises suspicions.
I do however recommend Cordelia Fine's book - it is an interesting, non-technical read- she is at the University of Melbourne's Centre of Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics.
I got this from from Cordeloia Fine, A Mind of its Own, which, among other things, discusses how the brain 'protects us' with vanity. The claim is that with respect to expected lifetime, we all believe we will live longer than we are likely to. This is similar to the view that we all believe we are better drivers than the next guy, but more specifically it relates to work in terror management theory showing how we deal with the prospect of inevitable death. According to Pyszczynski et al. (2004) a healthy brain is:
'...a protective shield designed to control the potential for terror than results from awareness of the horrifying possibility that we humans are merely transcient animals groping to survive in a meaningly universe, destined only to die and decay'.
My instincts are to claim that the death clock absurdly overpredicts the pace of my approach towards boot hill - so my own reactions accord with the theory. Note however that the Death Clock forecasts are not nationality-specific and place a lot of weight on BMI - moderate degrees of being overweight penalise your life expectancy strongly. As I have argued elsewhere this link is by no means firmly established. The Death Clock site carries weight-control advertising which raises suspicions.
I do however recommend Cordelia Fine's book - it is an interesting, non-technical read- she is at the University of Melbourne's Centre of Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics.
Sunday, April 09, 2006
On Iraq
The New York Times provides a sombre State Department report on the stability of the various provinces of Iraq and an informed commentary. Not optimistic - the sitation with respect to lack of civil order is bad in most provinces and unemployment very high everywhere outside the Kurdish regions. The problems in the south around Basra surprisingly bad.
Melbourne's transport again, again,...
The Age newspaper has continued its campaign to reform Melbourne's public transport. It has drawn on an unpublished report (authored by Paul Mees et al.) and called for free public transport in the city and for privately-operated 'public transport' to be again publicly-managed. It again editorialises on these issues. Just as it can repeat itself (it has advanced the first of these three propositions at least thrice over recent weeks) so could I. But to conserve pixels I'll just give a link to my earlier comments.
The issue of bringing tram and train sector operations back into the public fold is not one that I would necessarily disagree with. These services have a substantial natural monopoly element and it is unsurprising that regulated private operation does not provide an ideal service. Many economists look dubiously at the prospect of achieving efficiency gains from such privatisations. But I am very skeptical at the prospect of bringing the bus service back into private hands as The Age suggests is being advocated. Quote:
How are these figures arrived at and why have costs blown out? Hopefully the Mees et al. study to be released tomorrow will explain. But isn't it irresponsible journalism to editorialise and assume an advocacy role comment on such an issue before the facts are in and have been subjected to analysis. Moreover why no reference to the draft VCEC report which does involve careful analysis of congestion issues and suggests reforms that would improve the economics of public transport? There is nothing a priori obvious about The Age's claims - the issues are complex.
The issue of bringing tram and train sector operations back into the public fold is not one that I would necessarily disagree with. These services have a substantial natural monopoly element and it is unsurprising that regulated private operation does not provide an ideal service. Many economists look dubiously at the prospect of achieving efficiency gains from such privatisations. But I am very skeptical at the prospect of bringing the bus service back into private hands as The Age suggests is being advocated. Quote:
Bus operators received a subsidy equivalent to $4.09 for each passenger, the report says. In Vancouver, Canada, the subsidy was equivalent to $2.20. "These results confirm the findings for train and tram services: privatisation is not serving the public interest," the report says.Bringing the bus service back into public hands would seem foolish. What is needed is more competition and less regulation to deal flexibly with the severe transport issues confronting residents in Melbourme's perihery. But, ignoring the bus issue, do the problems identified for tram and rail involve contracting, excessively high fares or what? What are the possibilities for strengthening competition in the sector generally? On the basis of the study The Age asserts privatised transport has cost taxpayers $1.2 billion more than it would have if it had remained in public hands and will cost an additional $2.1 billion through to 2010.
How are these figures arrived at and why have costs blown out? Hopefully the Mees et al. study to be released tomorrow will explain. But isn't it irresponsible journalism to editorialise and assume an advocacy role comment on such an issue before the facts are in and have been subjected to analysis. Moreover why no reference to the draft VCEC report which does involve careful analysis of congestion issues and suggests reforms that would improve the economics of public transport? There is nothing a priori obvious about The Age's claims - the issues are complex.
Markets for desktop OS
Guest post by Rabee Tourky
Is there an economic argument for the present market structure in the market for desktop operating systems? Operating systems are programs that tell other programs how to run your computer and interact with the user. There are many operating systems. The famous ones include MS Windows XP, SP2, the various derivatives of the GNU system, like GNU/Linux, systems based on BSD UNIX, like FreeBSD, its good looking but dull child OS X, and its paranoid sibling openBSD.
The present market structure is basically a single operating system that almost completely dominates this market (MS Windows). It is not the best operating system but it is the most popular. It is clear, that if we all changed our operating system, to say openBSD, we would all be better off since it is likely to reduce the cost incurred by viruses and other malicious programs that take advantage of the faulty designs in MS Windows.
Now there are tremendous barriers to entry into this market.
Is there an economic argument for the present market structure in the market for desktop operating systems? Operating systems are programs that tell other programs how to run your computer and interact with the user. There are many operating systems. The famous ones include MS Windows XP, SP2, the various derivatives of the GNU system, like GNU/Linux, systems based on BSD UNIX, like FreeBSD, its good looking but dull child OS X, and its paranoid sibling openBSD.
The present market structure is basically a single operating system that almost completely dominates this market (MS Windows). It is not the best operating system but it is the most popular. It is clear, that if we all changed our operating system, to say openBSD, we would all be better off since it is likely to reduce the cost incurred by viruses and other malicious programs that take advantage of the faulty designs in MS Windows.
Now there are tremendous barriers to entry into this market.
a) Barriers to entry related to getting hardware manufacturers to design drivers for their hardware. Drivers are programs that tell the operating system how to let other programs access the hardware. Anyone who has used FreeBSD will know that it sometimes takes several days to figure out how to get FreeBSD to talk to your Wifi hardware.There is also something that is nagging me and that I don’t fully understand. Operating systems are mainly a communications protocol for program writers to use. They are not so much the user experience. They are like the convention of driving on the left or right hand side of the road. I think that there is an argument for emergence of an international standards body in this regard for desktop systems. One family of standards is POSIX, which has been hugely successful in the UNIX (mainly server) end of the market.
b) Getting software manufacturers to write programs for the operating system. This is costly and in many cases is difficult to do. The main cost I think is in keeping two versions of the program up to date and debugging the two programs. For reasons that I don’t fully understand companies that write games that use a lot of graphics are reluctant to write these games for say OSX or FreeBSD or the famous GNU derivatives.
c) These barriers to entry are amplified by network effects arising from the benefits that users get from having many other users use the same operating systems. If one important communications program, like Skype, is not cross platform, then the people using the program would loose a lot if they switched operating systems.
Attacking Iran?
Does the US seek to attack Iran as Salon believes?
The Salon article analyses the likelihood of attack, the plausible form of the attack and provides pessimistic assessment of the military and strategic costs the Americans will face. Spectator argues that Iran already has missile technology that will carry nuclear warheads into Europe.
Update: The BBC report that Iran dismisses the prospect of an attack as 'psychological warfare' while the UK Foreign Secretary, Jack Staw, sees no basis for the claim. Again the BBC report President Bush dismisses as speculation that a nuclear attack on the nuclear faciities in Iran might occur. The Iranians counter that US 'news' of a possible attack is 'psychological warfare' - that if the US were going to attack it would not be pre-announced.
(Thanks Rabee for the Salon reference).
Current and former American military and intelligence officials said that Air Force planning groups are drawing up lists of targets, and teams of American combat troops have been ordered into Iran, under cover, to collect targeting data and to establish contact with anti-government ethnic-minority groups. The officials say that President Bush is determined to deny the Iranian regime the opportunity to begin a pilot program, planned for this spring, to enrich uranium.Intrade will now pay more if Israel or the US launch a strike before 30 March 2007 than they would 6 weeks ago. So if you were indifferent then, and believe the Salon story, place your bets.
The Salon article analyses the likelihood of attack, the plausible form of the attack and provides pessimistic assessment of the military and strategic costs the Americans will face. Spectator argues that Iran already has missile technology that will carry nuclear warheads into Europe.
Update: The BBC report that Iran dismisses the prospect of an attack as 'psychological warfare' while the UK Foreign Secretary, Jack Staw, sees no basis for the claim. Again the BBC report President Bush dismisses as speculation that a nuclear attack on the nuclear faciities in Iran might occur. The Iranians counter that US 'news' of a possible attack is 'psychological warfare' - that if the US were going to attack it would not be pre-announced.
(Thanks Rabee for the Salon reference).
Saturday, April 08, 2006
PCs running OS X?
Robert X. Crinkely in the New York Times suggests that the intention of AppleComputer's Boot Camp , which enables dual boot up of its new Intel-using MACs into either Windows or OS X operating systems, is designed to lead PC users to use MAC operating system on their PCs.
My bet is that once Apple has Windows Vista running smoothly on its operating system and helping its business sales, the company will try a more profitable avenue: marketing a version of OS X able to run on regular PC's that now use Windows.
This strategy would turn Boot Camp on its head, as the company selling all those $140 retail copies of its operating system would be Apple. And with hundreds of millions of Windows machines in the world, getting even 1% of PC users to switch to OS X would be a huge new business for Apple. It would also create another headache for Microsoft. And that, in the end, is what Apple does best.
Less grinding poverty
I took this graphic from a recent Scientific American article. It indicates the percent of various populations living on less than $1 per day. While the hurdle is set very low the improvements in regions outside Sub-Saharan Africa (a notable exception) are remarkable.The article, by Pranab Bardhan, questions the extent to which globalisation - mainly interpreted as trade liberalisation - rather than events such as the 'green revolution', social investments, anti-poverty programs - have brought gains. Bhardhan is generally a supporter of globalisation but emphasises that this does not proclude a role for active public policy.
Bardhan has a sensible general conclusion:
Simplistic antiglobalization slogans or sermons on the unqualified benefits of free trade do not serve the cause of alleviating world poverty. An appreciation of the complexity of the issues and an active interweaving of domestic and international policies would be decidedly more fruitful.
Capote
Capote, the movie, got mixed reviews overall (this is one of the more positive) - I thought it was superb and probably the best movie I have seen this year. The In Cold Blood non-fiction novel and (the original) movie describe the brutal multiple-murder of an innocent family by a pair of drifting no-hopers that yields $50. A wikipedia entry describes the history. Truman Capote established himself as an important US writer by his dramatic depiction of this. Capote, the movie, describes how he sourced the novel by getting one of the killers to open up to him. Philip Seymour Hoffman who plays Capote is brilliant as the openly gay, self-absorbed author.
Indeed writing In Cold Blood becomes an obsession for its author. Capote even offers to get the killers an appeal after they are convicted to hang but he is concerned with himself not the killers. He lies, cajoles and fools himself as he toils over the book. While he pretends to emphasise with one of the killers he rather callously tells others that he hopes their appeals will fail so he can finish the work off. After they do hang its not even clear if the emotion he does display is compassion or self-obsession again. In real life Truman Capote became addicted to drugs and alcohol after the executions and never completed another book.
The movie has a documentary feel to it, sticking to facts and avoiding sensation and preachiness. It offers a view of the detached world of journalism and the poetic license seen in creative non-fiction and fictional biographies so prevalent today. In the original In Cold Blood movie I found myself focusing sympathies on the terribly evil killers – they were stupid psychopaths who had no compassion and that has always seemed something tragic to me. In Capote I felt the same emotion – although it was compounded by feelings for the central character, Capote himself, who is intellectually detached and psychopathic in a different way. The impact of the terrible events perhaps gets to him in the end but the lies he tells to the killers and the lack of genuine empathy for those killed and those affected by the killings shows he is mainly after the great ‘Gold Mine’ story.
And it is the compelling emotional impact of this psychological confusion that creates what for me is a great movie. Hoffman is particularly brilliant as Capote.
Odd spots
Snippets (Beazley, Gillespie, Xiali, Thaksin, Les Murray) from the Weekend Australian:
Kim Beazley has reaffirmed the ALP's stance on uranium mining but has agreed to dump the 'hit list' policy on private schools. The uranium decision is foolish but the revised education policy makes sense if Labor seeks to govern federally. My kids go to private schools and I know that many parents who do so are not rich - they just put high priority on education. They will never vote Labor with a 'hit lists' policy since they see the huge amounts they pay in fees (and the meagre government contributions) as underpinning public school financing.Sometimes the weekend press has little of interest but today I grabbed the paper at 7-00am and was still getting into it at midday when I had brunch. It should last the weekend.
KB launched a strong attack on the skilled migration program. Will the left attack him for his Blainey-esque attacks on foreign migrants as creators of an anti-migrant 'backlash' in Australia? Presumably the usual hypocrisy will prevail.
It is good to hear that Jacqueline Gillespie has been reunited with her daughter, Shahirah, (Sharia?), after she was kidnapped and taken to Malaysia by her father.
I was amazed to read that a Chinese sedan car (the Xiali) can be sold in Australia for as little as $5978. What sort of future do US and Australian car industries have? Presumably car travel in the future will be primarily driven in the future by fuel prices and government charges.
The specific details of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's claimed corruption in Thailand are spelt out. Thaksin has said he will resign as PM. Thailand was my home for 10 years I still keep an interest in Thai politics. Thaksin and his family companies have a case to answer. I am suprised to hear of Mr. Chamlong's return who was mayor of Bangkok while I lived there - a celibate, vegetarian and very strict Buddhist who brings an unusual anti-materialist moral twist to the incomprehensible (to outsiders) world of Thai politics. Information on the role of His Majesty King Bhumibol in events leading up to the resignation of Mr Thaksin would interest me.
There are two articles on Les Murray with some great quotes. His new book of poetry, The Biplane Houses , has just been released and I'll try to grab a copy today. Murray is a weird composite of conservatism and irreverence.
Friday, April 07, 2006
Banana price dynamics
Economists focus on how dramatic events impact on prices. When Cyclone Larry hit North Queensland wiping out 80% of the Australian banana crop there were forecasts that banana prices would hit ultra-high levels. They didn't. Before the Cyclone of March 20 they were $3 per kilogram and a week after it around $4-50. Nearly 3 weeks later they are still about that. Not much reaction. I couldn't figure it out.
Tonight I asked Mr D, who sells fruit to large supermarkets what was happening. He told me that when the Cyclone hits it flattens the trees and growers immediately cut and remove the felled bananas. The market gets effectively 'flooded' with bananas. There is a short-term price surge that reflects expectations but the glut tends to keep prices moderate until the initial surge in supply peters out. But then the price goes through the ceiling.
Indeed, he said that these events had happened at least 3 times over the past 50 years. He also suggested that the demand for bananas was quite price inelastic and tipped a medium term equilibrium price of around $10 per kilogram. In fact he suggested from about next week.
Update: Mr G who has been in the business of retailing fruit for about as long as Mr D as been in wholesaling it flatly rejected Mr D's explanation when I asked him this morning. He said there was a significant lag between harvesting fruit and selling it because of significant storage-ripening delays. Thus the plentiful supply in the couple of weeks after the cyclone. As time passes an absolute supply constraint will be hit and prices would rise strongly. He also said that harvesting of the type suggested by Mr D was physically impossible. Actual shipments of bananas to markets have fallen drastically over the last three weeks so maybe there shipment of bananas is being met by drawing on stored fruit.
These two guys know each other though I talked to them independently. After they talk I'll talk to them again. Wait for the next fruity and gripping episode. By the way prices today were about $1 higher so there is evidence of an upward move.
New lotteries
Three questions about gambling with public policy implications:
- Does a new gambling product, such as a lottery ticket, crowd-out spending on other forms of gambling or does it reduce non-gambling spending? Does spending on necessities fall?
- Are there specific effects of new instant lottery products such as 'scratch-off' tickets?
- Do people make informed choices of lottery products? If consumers make informed choices their purchases are welfare-increasing.
A recent paper by Melissa Kearney provides an analysis of these issues using State-based household expenditure data for the US 1982-1998. Her main findings:
1. Introducing a state lottery reduces non-gambling spending by $24 per adult per month compared to the average cost of lottery sales of $18 per month. For the average household spending on lottery tickets is financed completely (and permanently) by reduced non-gambling spending. People do not have a fixed total gambling demand, merely substituting new gambling products for old.
2. The poorest 1/3 of households have the biggest response to a new state lottery. Their non-gambling spending falls by 2.5% (3.1% when the lottery offers instant games). These households spend less on food eaten in the home (2.8%) and on housing (5.8%). These are averages - many households do not buy lottery tickets - so actual figures for those who gamble are much higher than this.
3. Lotteries have investment and entertainment value. Assuming pecuniary and entertainment components are separate, sensible behaviour suggests purchases should be greater for products with higher expected returns and this is so when other factors are controlled for. Consumers however also respond to non-wealth creating entertainment features. Hence purchase is consistent with informed choice - deriving an entertainment value equal to the price of the lottery (cost less expected return) and then making informed investments. However it is also consistent with the belief that consumers believe that entertainment characteristics enhance their chance of winning so the evidence is not necessarily consistent with informed choice.
See: Abstract 'State lotteries and consumer behavior', Jourmal of Public Economics, 89, 2005. Earlier complete version here. Related papers on gambling here.
Dopey kids
A number of commentators (for example Yobbo) have criticised the view that the sale of alco-pops such as Mudslides and Breezers should be banned. I agree bans are clumsy, and unlikely to be effective, but I am sympathetic to the notion that the use of several drugs (alcohol, nicotine and cannabis), while harmful to all age groups, are possibly particularly harmful to people of age less than about 25. If bans are inappropriate - then at least people in this age group should be made aware of the particular risks. Perhaps advertising of such products should be restricted.
Neuroscience recognises that the human brain does not reach adult structure until around age 25. Tissue growth occurs throughout the brain in early childhood followed by a remodelling during teenage years - including refinement or pruning of cortical synapses (nerve connections) that ensures good connections are strengthened while less useful ones disappear. Pruning is accompanied by myelination that speeds neural connections and improves brain operation.
Remodelling continues beyond traditional adolescence and is concentrated in the cortex parts of the brain that regulate emotions and behaviour. Recent work suggests that adolescents are vulnerable to disturbances in brain development caused by addictive drugs. A useful survey is by Dan Lubman & Murat Yucel in the April 2006 issue, Of Substance. Consider:
Alcohol. Is a neurotoxin. It kills brain cells so alcoholics have smaller brains than light consumers of alcohol. Adolescents in particular are vulnerable to the effects of alcohol on memory-related brain functions. Research shows that the sizes of an adolescent's hippocampus and frontal brain lobes are significantly reduced by alcohol consumption.
And animal studies suggest that adolescent rodents can 'party harder' than older consumers without feeling sedated (this accords with high levels of 'binge drinking' among young people) while at the same time being subject to greater risk of disturbed brain development.
Nicotine. Animal experiments suggest nicotine is neurotoxic during adolescence though not during adulthood. Moreover, adverse effects on adolescents occurred even with much lower levels of exposure than typically consumed by regular smokers.
Cannabis. There has been much debate (including discussion here) about the links between cannabis use and psychopathology. This is a contentious area but again research is suggesting that, if there are adverse effects, these are most likely to be experienced at younger ages. Early onset cannabis use suggests increased risk of depression and psychosis. The explanation here emphasises links between genetic predisposition and cannabis exposure.
This is unsettled science and more research is needed. But there is the risk of a specific link between adolescent substance use and later psychopathology. While you can argue that young people should make up their own minds we know that, in youth, discount rates are high so agents are prone to impulsiveness. Thus, they can be better-off in terms of their own lifetime utility if early destructive impulses are curtailed. Indeed, as they age, these discount rates become lower. If risks are judged severe enough there are important implications for public health policy.
Neuroscience recognises that the human brain does not reach adult structure until around age 25. Tissue growth occurs throughout the brain in early childhood followed by a remodelling during teenage years - including refinement or pruning of cortical synapses (nerve connections) that ensures good connections are strengthened while less useful ones disappear. Pruning is accompanied by myelination that speeds neural connections and improves brain operation.
Remodelling continues beyond traditional adolescence and is concentrated in the cortex parts of the brain that regulate emotions and behaviour. Recent work suggests that adolescents are vulnerable to disturbances in brain development caused by addictive drugs. A useful survey is by Dan Lubman & Murat Yucel in the April 2006 issue, Of Substance. Consider:
Alcohol. Is a neurotoxin. It kills brain cells so alcoholics have smaller brains than light consumers of alcohol. Adolescents in particular are vulnerable to the effects of alcohol on memory-related brain functions. Research shows that the sizes of an adolescent's hippocampus and frontal brain lobes are significantly reduced by alcohol consumption.
And animal studies suggest that adolescent rodents can 'party harder' than older consumers without feeling sedated (this accords with high levels of 'binge drinking' among young people) while at the same time being subject to greater risk of disturbed brain development.
Nicotine. Animal experiments suggest nicotine is neurotoxic during adolescence though not during adulthood. Moreover, adverse effects on adolescents occurred even with much lower levels of exposure than typically consumed by regular smokers.
Cannabis. There has been much debate (including discussion here) about the links between cannabis use and psychopathology. This is a contentious area but again research is suggesting that, if there are adverse effects, these are most likely to be experienced at younger ages. Early onset cannabis use suggests increased risk of depression and psychosis. The explanation here emphasises links between genetic predisposition and cannabis exposure.
This is unsettled science and more research is needed. But there is the risk of a specific link between adolescent substance use and later psychopathology. While you can argue that young people should make up their own minds we know that, in youth, discount rates are high so agents are prone to impulsiveness. Thus, they can be better-off in terms of their own lifetime utility if early destructive impulses are curtailed. Indeed, as they age, these discount rates become lower. If risks are judged severe enough there are important implications for public health policy.
Missing jobs
During 2004 and 2005 the US manufacturing sector expanded more strongly than the rest of the economy. Yet after losing 1.5 million jobs during the 2001 recession it subsequently lost another 1.5 million jobs while the rest of the economy gained 5 million new jobs. US manufacturing employment at 14.2 million workers is the lowest it has been for 50 years.
David Huether in Business Week views the issue optimistically.
'Some blame ... outsourcing ... to...China and India. Others fault our growing trade deficit. And some posit that the current manufacturing recovery has not generated as robust a demand for US goods as have previous post-recession upturns. But none of these interrelated factors has influenced manufacturing employment nearly as much as has ...productivity growth.
Since 2001, with the aid of computers, telecommunications advances, and ever more efficient plant operations, US manufacturing productivity, or the amount of goods or services a worker produces in an hour, has soared a dizzying 24%. That's 72% faster than the average productivity advance during America's four most recent recession-recovery cycles dating back to the 1970s. In short: We're making more stuff with fewer people.
US manufacturing has for decades been the world leader in the productivity gains that drive living standards higher. But more recently, practically every manufacturing economy around the globe has posted strong productivity gains and experienced job losses as a result. ...China has actually lost more manufacturing jobs than America since 2000, with 4.5 million jobs gone vs. 3.1 million in the U.S. Among the top 10 industrialized economies ... which represent 75% of world manufacturing output, only Italy managed not to lose factory jobs since 2000.
It's ... true that US manufacturers face stiff competition in low- and mid-tech products from increasingly capable global rivals. Our trade deficit is a reflection of those competitors' collective capacity to deliver affordable consumer products to America and other international markets. But it's also true that persistently slow economic growth in Japan and Europe has limited demand for US-made goods and thus worked to lower post-recession output from American plants.... So, contrary to popular belief, it has been this lower demand and output, coupled with high productivity growth, that has conspired to depress ... manufacturing job creation ....
US manufacturing output has increased a welcome 13% since the end of 2001. But that growth is barely half the average increase during the initial four years of the previous four recoveries. Remember, our manufacturing productivity has increased significantly faster than in earlier recoveries. You don't have to be an economist to see how this combination of far slower output growth and much higher productivity has been very bad for employment.
Indeed, if manufacturing output and productivity growth rates during the current recovery had equaled those averaged during the previous four upturns, US manufacturing would have created 3 million more jobs than it has, and employment would have recovered to its pre-recession level of 17.2 million by the end of 2005. Fortunately, demand for US-made products has increased, and manufacturing's output has grown at a solid 4.8% annual pace during the past two years.
Because that figure almost matched manufacturing's 5.1% productivity growth, factory employment has remained relatively stable. But US manufacturers aren't about to invest any less in productivity improvements in future years. International competition won't let them. Looking ahead, the number of manufacturing jobs we create or lose will depend entirely on the global demand for U.S.-made products'.
David Huether in Business Week views the issue optimistically.
'Some blame ... outsourcing ... to...China and India. Others fault our growing trade deficit. And some posit that the current manufacturing recovery has not generated as robust a demand for US goods as have previous post-recession upturns. But none of these interrelated factors has influenced manufacturing employment nearly as much as has ...productivity growth.
Since 2001, with the aid of computers, telecommunications advances, and ever more efficient plant operations, US manufacturing productivity, or the amount of goods or services a worker produces in an hour, has soared a dizzying 24%. That's 72% faster than the average productivity advance during America's four most recent recession-recovery cycles dating back to the 1970s. In short: We're making more stuff with fewer people.
US manufacturing has for decades been the world leader in the productivity gains that drive living standards higher. But more recently, practically every manufacturing economy around the globe has posted strong productivity gains and experienced job losses as a result. ...China has actually lost more manufacturing jobs than America since 2000, with 4.5 million jobs gone vs. 3.1 million in the U.S. Among the top 10 industrialized economies ... which represent 75% of world manufacturing output, only Italy managed not to lose factory jobs since 2000.
It's ... true that US manufacturers face stiff competition in low- and mid-tech products from increasingly capable global rivals. Our trade deficit is a reflection of those competitors' collective capacity to deliver affordable consumer products to America and other international markets. But it's also true that persistently slow economic growth in Japan and Europe has limited demand for US-made goods and thus worked to lower post-recession output from American plants.... So, contrary to popular belief, it has been this lower demand and output, coupled with high productivity growth, that has conspired to depress ... manufacturing job creation ....
US manufacturing output has increased a welcome 13% since the end of 2001. But that growth is barely half the average increase during the initial four years of the previous four recoveries. Remember, our manufacturing productivity has increased significantly faster than in earlier recoveries. You don't have to be an economist to see how this combination of far slower output growth and much higher productivity has been very bad for employment.
Indeed, if manufacturing output and productivity growth rates during the current recovery had equaled those averaged during the previous four upturns, US manufacturing would have created 3 million more jobs than it has, and employment would have recovered to its pre-recession level of 17.2 million by the end of 2005. Fortunately, demand for US-made products has increased, and manufacturing's output has grown at a solid 4.8% annual pace during the past two years.
Because that figure almost matched manufacturing's 5.1% productivity growth, factory employment has remained relatively stable. But US manufacturers aren't about to invest any less in productivity improvements in future years. International competition won't let them. Looking ahead, the number of manufacturing jobs we create or lose will depend entirely on the global demand for U.S.-made products'.
Thursday, April 06, 2006
Idiot box
A Chinese study in Neurology (March 2006, subscription only) studied 5000 people aged over 55 for 5 years. It found that those who developed cognitive impairment were less likely to play mahjong or to read. It showed that spending a lot of time watching television was associated with a 20% increase in risk of developing cognitive impairment.
A US study in the same journal found that crosswords, board games, reading, writing, group discussion and music prevented cognitive impairment among the elderly but watching television hastened it.
I am getting to the age where these findings become relevant. I have largely abandoned television and read quite a bit. I play a bit of chess and enjoy classical music. Will I escape 'cognitive impairment'? I'd like to see studies which included the factors above, life-style and dietary choices.
A US study in the same journal found that crosswords, board games, reading, writing, group discussion and music prevented cognitive impairment among the elderly but watching television hastened it.
I am getting to the age where these findings become relevant. I have largely abandoned television and read quite a bit. I play a bit of chess and enjoy classical music. Will I escape 'cognitive impairment'? I'd like to see studies which included the factors above, life-style and dietary choices.
Healthy lunch
Today I attended an interesting lunchtime discussion (organised by the Melbourne Institute) with presentations by Peter Allen , a Victorian Government public official and Richard Scotton, recently retired from the Health Economics Unit at Monash. (An introductory talk by Anthony Scott on British Health sector reforms I found uninteresting).
Several interesting issues stood out. Scotton pointed out that Australia spent 5% of GDP on health in 1961 and that Commonwealth Treasury projects we will spend about 15% in 2050, about the proportion the US currently spends. Moreover although we don't spend as much as the US our health gains have been substantial. Over the past 40 years, 50 year olds - men and women - have gained an average of about 7 extra years of life. Even ignoring lifestyle improvements through the associated improved health, this is a big gain.
Scotton out that the success of these health efforts meant that people would live longer which would increase health costs through aging. He advocated market-based reforms of the health system but was not specific.
Allen was an interesting bureaucrat who gave a good perspective of current politics. He talked about the National Reform Agenda (NRA) on health and the role of COAG. He supported Scotton by pointing out Australia had the second lowest mortality in the OECD. A major difficulty, he suggested, was in indigenous health which is improving but by less than the improvement of others - the gap between non-aboriginals and others is increasing. There are also worse health outcomes for the poor - health varies with socioeconomic status. Ok, all this is obvious but worth making explicit.
Allen pointed out the increasing role of chronic diseases (asthma, cardiovascular, cancer, diabetes, mental, neurological) often treated using community rather than hospital care.
The NRA recognised the correlation between health status and work participation and essentially saw health care as an investment rather than a maintenance cost. Thus workforce participation can be boosted by improving health.
I have read Andrew Norton's interesting post on the recent AIHW report on mortality trends in Australia. When I get a day or so I'll post on this and link it to today's discussion.
Several interesting issues stood out. Scotton pointed out that Australia spent 5% of GDP on health in 1961 and that Commonwealth Treasury projects we will spend about 15% in 2050, about the proportion the US currently spends. Moreover although we don't spend as much as the US our health gains have been substantial. Over the past 40 years, 50 year olds - men and women - have gained an average of about 7 extra years of life. Even ignoring lifestyle improvements through the associated improved health, this is a big gain.
Scotton out that the success of these health efforts meant that people would live longer which would increase health costs through aging. He advocated market-based reforms of the health system but was not specific.
Allen was an interesting bureaucrat who gave a good perspective of current politics. He talked about the National Reform Agenda (NRA) on health and the role of COAG. He supported Scotton by pointing out Australia had the second lowest mortality in the OECD. A major difficulty, he suggested, was in indigenous health which is improving but by less than the improvement of others - the gap between non-aboriginals and others is increasing. There are also worse health outcomes for the poor - health varies with socioeconomic status. Ok, all this is obvious but worth making explicit.
Allen pointed out the increasing role of chronic diseases (asthma, cardiovascular, cancer, diabetes, mental, neurological) often treated using community rather than hospital care.
The NRA recognised the correlation between health status and work participation and essentially saw health care as an investment rather than a maintenance cost. Thus workforce participation can be boosted by improving health.
I have read Andrew Norton's interesting post on the recent AIHW report on mortality trends in Australia. When I get a day or so I'll post on this and link it to today's discussion.
Wednesday, April 05, 2006
Orange-bellied parrot
A beautiful Australian parrot is also one of the most endangered bird species in this country. It's the Orange-bellied parrot which numbers around 200 adults in the wild. Each year the OBP takes two trips across Bass Strait migrating between Tasmania and the coastal areas of Victoria. Conservation of the OBP has caused problems for wind power advocates in Victoria because governments perceive that wind farms might hasten the extinction of the parrot.
Indeed The Age reports a Federal Government decision has blocked a controversial 52-turbine wind farm plan on Victoria's south-east coast. The $220 million development was approved by the Victorian Government in 2004, but the Federal Environment Minister, Ian Campbell, today announced he was overruling that decision over concerns for the OBP.
I am a conservationist and have written on conserving the OBP but this decision seems inefficient. The OBP can be captive-bred and when released in the wild, returns to its natural migratory behaviour. Moreover, the wind farms offer only a low chance of harming the parrots given the length of the Victorian coastline - the expected mortality would probably be much less than one bird per year. Thus a solution that would permit the OBP's conservation to be enhanced, but which would also permit the wind farm, would be to tax the windfarm the cost of raising two or three parrots in captivity each year for release in the wild. This would increase the wild population of OBP and permit the wind farm.
Prohibitions can make sense in dealing with biodiversity conservation problems but on this occasion they don't. A standard tax-subsidy solution would have left all sides better-off here.
(Thanks Lee for providing The Age article).
Full-steam for Aussi economy
The RBA announced yesterday that it would again keeps its cash rate at 5.5%. Its excellent Chart Pack gives a feel for what is happening in the Australian economy.
Highlights:
- Australia’s major trading partners are growing faster than the rest-of-the-world.
- Australian growth slowed a bit during 2005 but is still strong.
- Business investment has usurped dwelling investment as the driver of the sustained boom in the Aussie economy.
- Unemployment rates close to record lows, labour force participation growing strongly.
- Current account deficit of 6% of GDP but reducing. The trade balance improving.
- Underlying inflation low at 2.5%.
Its a very positive outlook.
Mid week review
I've been blogging for two months. Its been fun. According to the Sitemeter icons installed (I have no idea of their accuracy) my readership has risen steadily, though not the number of comments, which remains low.
I've been thinking about the left's apparent domination of political blog commentary in Australia. Maybe this reflects my starting point in the blogosphere but the left do seem to dominate things. Blogs which I like, and which are more to the right - such as Catallaxy - seem to consistently dodge major issues that interest me, such as the war in Iraq. I wonder why? I have recently been reading The Currency Lad which provides counterbalance. Tim Blair , who can be witty and sharp, does not go for depth.
Expressing non-left-wing views on left-wing blogs is quickly detected as a right-wing intrusion and resented by the leftist blog members. This is an issue as, unlike many of my friends and colleagues, I am not firmly on the left of politics. Moreover, I am much less interested in a person's general political stance than their specific views. The predictability of political views of those on the left (and the ' 'aint it awful brigade') depresses me. Greenhouse, Iraq, Work Choices, John Howard, unemployment, ... the list of 'disasters' goes on and on.
Many on the left have transparently inquisitional attitudes - recently I was attacked for being a 'cheerleader for mass murder' because I articulated an argument concerning the American invasion of Iraq. The claim is false but I suspect the language is so frequently intemperate in such debates that concern for truth is secondary. Indeed this claim would not even be seen as 'uncivil' just the norm.
A couple of pleasant things happened to me this week. My paper was accepted for the Econometric Society meetings in Alice Springs in July so I get to visit a new place. I will take a week's holiday after the conference. I also got a teaching award for a subject on Environmental Economics and Strategy taught in 2005. This strokes my variant of the notorious academic ego.
Did you have anything positive happen to you during the last week? Feel free to post on it (or life's miseries if you wish) here. If you know about Alice Springs I'd be interested in your views on things to do, places to see there.
I've been thinking about the left's apparent domination of political blog commentary in Australia. Maybe this reflects my starting point in the blogosphere but the left do seem to dominate things. Blogs which I like, and which are more to the right - such as Catallaxy - seem to consistently dodge major issues that interest me, such as the war in Iraq. I wonder why? I have recently been reading The Currency Lad which provides counterbalance. Tim Blair , who can be witty and sharp, does not go for depth.
Expressing non-left-wing views on left-wing blogs is quickly detected as a right-wing intrusion and resented by the leftist blog members. This is an issue as, unlike many of my friends and colleagues, I am not firmly on the left of politics. Moreover, I am much less interested in a person's general political stance than their specific views. The predictability of political views of those on the left (and the ' 'aint it awful brigade') depresses me. Greenhouse, Iraq, Work Choices, John Howard, unemployment, ... the list of 'disasters' goes on and on.
Many on the left have transparently inquisitional attitudes - recently I was attacked for being a 'cheerleader for mass murder' because I articulated an argument concerning the American invasion of Iraq. The claim is false but I suspect the language is so frequently intemperate in such debates that concern for truth is secondary. Indeed this claim would not even be seen as 'uncivil' just the norm.
A couple of pleasant things happened to me this week. My paper was accepted for the Econometric Society meetings in Alice Springs in July so I get to visit a new place. I will take a week's holiday after the conference. I also got a teaching award for a subject on Environmental Economics and Strategy taught in 2005. This strokes my variant of the notorious academic ego.
Did you have anything positive happen to you during the last week? Feel free to post on it (or life's miseries if you wish) here. If you know about Alice Springs I'd be interested in your views on things to do, places to see there.
Tuesday, April 04, 2006
Impulsiveness
Many of the social problems I am studying at present (drug addiction, alcoholism, compulsive gambling, suicide, ADD, obesity) are attributed to impulsiveness. But there are good and bad sides to being impulsive. The New York Times discusses research distinguishing between self-destructive impulsiveness and spontaneity that is an intellectually healthy break from routine. A taste for danger is not enough to produce ruinous impulsivity.
This research, in The Journal of Psychiatric Research, investigated 351 healthy adults and 70 others with impulse-related disorders like antisocial and borderline personality disorders. The participants took tests to measure inhibition, risk attitudes and the propensity to plan. An appetite for risk in the healthy was associated with having a good education - risk seekers scored highly for curiosity and openness to new experiences. Those with personality disorders however combined sensation-seeking with extreme lack of deliberation leading to chronic trouble or mental illness.
A key differentiating factor had to do with how people apply the brakes when impulsive behaviour steers them in a harmful direction. People can binge, gamble or try hard drugs and get away with it if have a native cunning when it comes to risk. They are then prepared for danger and poised for retreat. Such self-directed types have clear goals and are resourceful in pursuing them. Those who get upended by their impulses, by contrast, trust first impressions absolutely and don't take evasive action to avoid problems. So you can be efficiently impulsive provided you are prepared for trouble. Yes.
This research, in The Journal of Psychiatric Research, investigated 351 healthy adults and 70 others with impulse-related disorders like antisocial and borderline personality disorders. The participants took tests to measure inhibition, risk attitudes and the propensity to plan. An appetite for risk in the healthy was associated with having a good education - risk seekers scored highly for curiosity and openness to new experiences. Those with personality disorders however combined sensation-seeking with extreme lack of deliberation leading to chronic trouble or mental illness.
A key differentiating factor had to do with how people apply the brakes when impulsive behaviour steers them in a harmful direction. People can binge, gamble or try hard drugs and get away with it if have a native cunning when it comes to risk. They are then prepared for danger and poised for retreat. Such self-directed types have clear goals and are resourceful in pursuing them. Those who get upended by their impulses, by contrast, trust first impressions absolutely and don't take evasive action to avoid problems. So you can be efficiently impulsive provided you are prepared for trouble. Yes.
Work illusions
I did something unusual (for me) tonight by attending a La Trobe Politics Society discussion on 'Working Life Under Howard'. It included Elisabeth Wynhausen, who spoke on her book Dirt Cheap: Life at the Wrong End of the Job Market , and Jill Murray, a LaTrobe University law lecturer who spoke on the Work Choices Act (2005).
It was a discouraging evening for me dominated by leftist political rhetoric, little analysis and no understanding of basic economics. Wages were a social welfare tool that need bear no relation to productivity. Employers were irrational agents who would sack workers, to quote Murray, if they disliked someone's 'red hair'. Is this typical of political science in Australia today?
I am uncertain about some implications of this 'Act. It is not clear that minimum wages do have strong impacts on employment outcomes as Card and others have argued. There are adverse implications of weakening awards and conditions in situations where firms have monopsony power. This is relevant for low-income workers with low bargaining power. But there are offsetting effects - with fewer restrictions on agreements between workers and firms there are likely to be more jobs. And if unemployment is reduced below 5% in Australia the bargaining power of most workers will be high because of competition. To some extent, at least, forcing employers in low productivity sectors to pay high wages or to meet onerous work conditions will limit job creation. There is a strong argument that desired distributional outcomes should be met through the tax-transfer mechanisms not by restricting willingness-to-hire.
I was struck by the low level of the discussion. Models and data were not used to argue a case and discussion was based on anecdotes and media reports. There was a pervasive anti-Liberal, pro-Labor ethos and no attempt to separate ideology from analysis. One wonders what sorts of graduates are being produced by these programs. While economists sometimes have an excessively narrow vision, my vision was not enhanced by this discussion.
It was a discouraging evening for me dominated by leftist political rhetoric, little analysis and no understanding of basic economics. Wages were a social welfare tool that need bear no relation to productivity. Employers were irrational agents who would sack workers, to quote Murray, if they disliked someone's 'red hair'. Is this typical of political science in Australia today?
I am uncertain about some implications of this 'Act. It is not clear that minimum wages do have strong impacts on employment outcomes as Card and others have argued. There are adverse implications of weakening awards and conditions in situations where firms have monopsony power. This is relevant for low-income workers with low bargaining power. But there are offsetting effects - with fewer restrictions on agreements between workers and firms there are likely to be more jobs. And if unemployment is reduced below 5% in Australia the bargaining power of most workers will be high because of competition. To some extent, at least, forcing employers in low productivity sectors to pay high wages or to meet onerous work conditions will limit job creation. There is a strong argument that desired distributional outcomes should be met through the tax-transfer mechanisms not by restricting willingness-to-hire.
I was struck by the low level of the discussion. Models and data were not used to argue a case and discussion was based on anecdotes and media reports. There was a pervasive anti-Liberal, pro-Labor ethos and no attempt to separate ideology from analysis. One wonders what sorts of graduates are being produced by these programs. While economists sometimes have an excessively narrow vision, my vision was not enhanced by this discussion.
Simplifying tax law
The Treasurer today released draft legislation to repeal more than 4,100 pages from Australia's tax legislation to reduce the complexity of tax laws. The exposure draft proposes to reduce the income tax law by more than 31%.
The draft can be viewed at www.treasury.gov.au.
The draft can be viewed at www.treasury.gov.au.
My brain
I got a new brain today. I been waiting several weeks and people have been asking 'where is your brain?' and I just didn't know. It was embarrassing as it seemed to have got lost in the post. What a sad story for a brain. Then I got rung from Adelaide, where I had bought my brain, and was told that it hadn't been forwarded because of a problem with my credit card number. So I corrected the number and my brain arrived.
Its called the C-20C Budget Brain Model with Arteries and is manufactured in China by the Anatomical Chart Company. There are various models - mine is not made of gelatine and doesn't have a skull. But it does split into 8 parts (4 cerebrum parts, 2 brain stem halves and 2 cerebellum halves) and a brochure describes how the various bits fit together. It looks a bit like a crouched foetus doing something quite unnatural.
I have been playing with it tonight because its been a quiet night and around midnight you start to think about life and other contingencies. Its OK, don't worry, I feel like a new man! But not being good at abstractions I will play with this brain until I master neuroscience. It is enervating.
Monday, April 03, 2006
Booze no good for ya
I am studying net social costs of alcohol consumption with PhD student Cecile McKeown. Cecile is an expert in alcohol and drugs research and has long warned me that the claimed net health benefits from drinking booze (as articulated in Australian Health and Welfare reports) are questionable.
The National Drug Research Institute has issued a press release confirming this. The NDRI analysed 54 research studies linking how much people drank with risk of premature death from all causes including heart disease.
It claims the studies made a consistent and serious error of including as 'abstainers' people who had cut down or quit drinking due to declining health, frailty, medication use or disability. The few studies without this error showed no evidence of health benefits.
This does not disprove that light drinking is good for health but the extent of benefits may be exaggerated. The team identified only 7 studies that properly compared light drinkers with long-term abstainers. The results showed no reduction in risk of death among light drinkers compared with abstainers. The other 47 studies showed significantly lower risk of death among light drinkers compared with a group of 'abstainers' that included people who had recently cut down or quit drinking.
The report is in the April issue of Addiction Research and Theory. The article itself is unavailable online.
The National Drug Research Institute has issued a press release confirming this. The NDRI analysed 54 research studies linking how much people drank with risk of premature death from all causes including heart disease.
It claims the studies made a consistent and serious error of including as 'abstainers' people who had cut down or quit drinking due to declining health, frailty, medication use or disability. The few studies without this error showed no evidence of health benefits.
This does not disprove that light drinking is good for health but the extent of benefits may be exaggerated. The team identified only 7 studies that properly compared light drinkers with long-term abstainers. The results showed no reduction in risk of death among light drinkers compared with abstainers. The other 47 studies showed significantly lower risk of death among light drinkers compared with a group of 'abstainers' that included people who had recently cut down or quit drinking.
The report is in the April issue of Addiction Research and Theory. The article itself is unavailable online.
Australian commodity prices
BHP-Billiton hit $29.32 today. They have trebled over the past few years. They closed lower than this but my guess is they have further to go. The company has announced that it will increase the buyback of its shares by $2.25 billion. The stock has increased about 20% since I tipped them on 11th February this year on this blog.
The attached dramatic graph, released today by the RBA shows why the world's largest mining company is doing so well. Actually there was a very slight decline in prices in March (you would have to be brave to pick a peak) but the dramatic growth over the past 6 years is clear.
Update: The role of BHP-Billiton's uranium sales from Olympic Dam to China are emphasised here. BHP-Billiton got WMC for a song and will reap rewards for decades.
Sunday, April 02, 2006
Smearing
Ken Parish at Troppo republishes a note from The Art Life on Pro Hart. I had already cited my own views on Pro Hart. I quote from the reproduced report by Parish:
So as I read it:
(i) Pro Hart's politics have not been discussed but Harry Siedler just died and he had a youthful connection with the Nazis and Pro Hart just died so he too.... .....well, no, that's not right.
(ii) Pro Hart believed in a 'rank form of neo-Nazism' - you can see this from the link. Or can you? The link doesn't refer to Hart or Neo-Nazism but to ZOG which is 'used by several extremist groups in various countries, such as neo-Nazis .......' (my emphasis). (The recent Mearsheimer and Walts piece criticising the role of the Israel Lobby in determining US foreign policy has been used by US neo-Nazis. Are Professors Mearsheimer and Walts neo-Nazis?).
So, conclusion: Pro Hart is a Neo-Nazi or perhaps, with further simplification, just a Nazi.
Ken Parish appreciates Pro Hart and his work. So do I. But his account is promoting guilt-by-association which smears a reputation. I responded in comments to the Art Life and Troppo. The Art Life I think is a bunch of brainless kids who misled Ken.
'What hasn’t been reported was Hart’s politics. When Harry Seidler died his life as a refugee from Germany was duly reported, as was Seidler’s own unfortunate youthful enthusiasm for the aesthetics of the Nazis. It was a revealing and interesting insight into Seidler’s personal history and development, but perhaps everyone has forgotten then that Pro Hart, while a charming duffer, held extreme right political views. It was a paranoid view which claimed – among other things - that a Zionist Occupation Government [read “jews”] is vying for the control of Australia and the United States, either via the United Nations or through “international banking”. ZOG and its various conspiracy theory derivatives are a rank form of neo-Nazism'.
So as I read it:
(i) Pro Hart's politics have not been discussed but Harry Siedler just died and he had a youthful connection with the Nazis and Pro Hart just died so he too.... .....well, no, that's not right.
(ii) Pro Hart believed in a 'rank form of neo-Nazism' - you can see this from the link. Or can you? The link doesn't refer to Hart or Neo-Nazism but to ZOG which is 'used by several extremist groups in various countries, such as neo-Nazis .......' (my emphasis). (The recent Mearsheimer and Walts piece criticising the role of the Israel Lobby in determining US foreign policy has been used by US neo-Nazis. Are Professors Mearsheimer and Walts neo-Nazis?).
So, conclusion: Pro Hart is a Neo-Nazi or perhaps, with further simplification, just a Nazi.
Ken Parish appreciates Pro Hart and his work. So do I. But his account is promoting guilt-by-association which smears a reputation. I responded in comments to the Art Life and Troppo. The Art Life I think is a bunch of brainless kids who misled Ken.
How to be a good wife
From Housekeeping Monthly 1955. (Thanks Jack)
One: Have dinner ready. Plan ahead, even the night before, to have a delicious meal ready, on time for his return. This is a way of letting him know that you have been thinking about him and are concerned about his needs. Most men are hungry when they come home and the prospect of a good meal (especially his favourite dish) is part of the warm welcome needed.
Two: Prepare yourself. Take 15 minutes to rest so you’ll be refreshed when he arrives. Touch up your make-up, put a ribbon in your hair and be fresh-looking. He has just been with a lot of work-weary people.
Three: Be a little gay and a little more interesting for him. His boring day may need a lift and one of your duties is to provide it.
Four: Clear away the clutter. Make one last trip through the main part of the house just before your husband arrives.
Five: Gather up schoolbooks, toys, paper, etc. and then run a dustcloth over the tables.
Six: Over the cooler months of the year you should prepare and light a fire for him to unwind by.Your husband will feel he has reached a haven of rest and order, and it will give you a lift too. After all, catering for his comfort will provide you with immense personal satisfaction.
Seven: Prepare the children. Take a few minutes to wash the children’s hands and faces (if they are small), comb their hair and, if necessary, change their clothes. They are little treasures and he would like to see them playing the part. Minimise all noise. At the time of his arrival, eliminate all noise of the washer, dryer or vacuum. Try to encourage the children to be quiet.
Eight: Be happy to see him.
Nine: Greet him with a warm smile and show sincerity in your desire to please him.
Ten: Listen to him. You may have a dozen important things to tell him, but the moment of his arrival is not the time. Let him talk first - remember, his topics of conversation are more important than yours.
Eleven: Make the evening his. Never complain if he comes home late or goes out to dinner, or other places of entertainment without you. Instead, try to understand his world of strain and pressure and his very real need to be at home and relax.
Twelve: Your goal: try to make sure your home is a place of peace, order and tranquillity where your husband can renew himself in body and spirit.
Thirteen: Don’t greet him with complaints and problems.
Fourteen: Don’t complain if he’s late home for dinner or even if he stays out all night. Count this as minor compared to what he might have gone through that day.
Fifteen: Make him comfortable. Make him lean back in a comfortable chair or have him lie down in the bedroom. Have a cool or warm drink ready for him.
Sixteen: Arrange his pillow and offer to take off his shoes. Speak in a low, soothing and pleasant voice.
Seventeen: Don’t ask him questions about his actions or question his judgement or integrity. Remember, he is the master of the house and as such will always exercise his will with fairness and truthfulness. You have no right to question him.
Eighteen: A good wife always knows her place.
Marijuana & fertility.
The Age reports that marijuana use is now claimed to reduce fertility in both men and women. The abstract is here - the full article hidden behind the need for a subscription.
(Thanks Lee Smith)
(Thanks Lee Smith)
Poor diseases
In one very limited sense one is better of contracting HIV rather than malaria or sleeping sickness. That's because wealthy gay men contract HIV and treatments have been devised to tap into that wealth. The New York Times discusses this here.
The profit motive fails to address important human health needs.
AIDs as a disease is taken seriously - at least among adults - because it is a disease of the rich. But children in developing countries who contract the disease (700,000 last year) don't do well because there is no money in it.
Malaria was effectively dealt with by chloroquine until the parasite established a resistance to it. Sufferers in Africa would be better off if the disease had not been eradicated in rich countries.
Sleeping sickness - the second most deadly parasitic disease after malaria, but confined to African countries, was largely ignored until a fashion magazine revealled it delayed facial hair growth. It is now being sold where it is really needed.
Treatments for other 'poor people' diseases (Kala Azar, TB, Chagas' Disease) are largely just neglected because the associated suffering does not translate into bucks.
The profit motive fails to address important human health needs.
AIDs as a disease is taken seriously - at least among adults - because it is a disease of the rich. But children in developing countries who contract the disease (700,000 last year) don't do well because there is no money in it.
Malaria was effectively dealt with by chloroquine until the parasite established a resistance to it. Sufferers in Africa would be better off if the disease had not been eradicated in rich countries.
Sleeping sickness - the second most deadly parasitic disease after malaria, but confined to African countries, was largely ignored until a fashion magazine revealled it delayed facial hair growth. It is now being sold where it is really needed.
Treatments for other 'poor people' diseases (Kala Azar, TB, Chagas' Disease) are largely just neglected because the associated suffering does not translate into bucks.
Saturday, April 01, 2006
Information markets
The AEI-Brookings Joint Centre study:
Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions Robert W. Hahn (Editor), Paul C. Tetlock (Editor), Michael Abramowicz, Joyce E. Berg, Robin Hanson, John O. Ledyard, Thomas A. Rietz, Cass R. Sunstein, Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz. Books and Monographs 06-03. March 2006, is available online here.
Abstract: Information markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event. They are used to predict a wide range of events, from presidential elections to printer sales. These markets frequently outperform both experts and opinion polls, and many scholars believe they have the potential to revolutionize policymaking. At the same time, they present a number of challenges.This collection of essays provides a state-of-the-art analysis of the potential impact of information markets on public policy and private decision-making. The authors assess what we really know about information markets, examine the potential of information markets to improve policy, lay out a research agenda to help improve our understanding of information markets, and explain how we might systematically improve the design of such markets.
(Thanks Marginal Revolution. Cass Sunstein evaluates the pros and cons of information markets versus other methods of eliciting truth from large numbers of individuals here).
Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions Robert W. Hahn (Editor), Paul C. Tetlock (Editor), Michael Abramowicz, Joyce E. Berg, Robin Hanson, John O. Ledyard, Thomas A. Rietz, Cass R. Sunstein, Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz. Books and Monographs 06-03. March 2006, is available online here.
Abstract: Information markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event. They are used to predict a wide range of events, from presidential elections to printer sales. These markets frequently outperform both experts and opinion polls, and many scholars believe they have the potential to revolutionize policymaking. At the same time, they present a number of challenges.This collection of essays provides a state-of-the-art analysis of the potential impact of information markets on public policy and private decision-making. The authors assess what we really know about information markets, examine the potential of information markets to improve policy, lay out a research agenda to help improve our understanding of information markets, and explain how we might systematically improve the design of such markets.
(Thanks Marginal Revolution. Cass Sunstein evaluates the pros and cons of information markets versus other methods of eliciting truth from large numbers of individuals here).
Nuclear madness
Uranium prices may surge as much as 45% to $US58 a pound by mid next year according to the AFR. There is an international boom in use of nuclear fuels for power generation. Yet state branches of the Australian Labor Party refuse to allow new sources of uranium exports, for example, from Western Australia.
As the International Herald Tribune points out:
We should improve our economy and the global environment by removing constraints on the development of new uranium mines in Australia.
As the International Herald Tribune points out:
Australia has about 37% of the world's known low-cost uranium resources, worth about $100 billion (Aust)….yet it lags Canada as a producer….China needs non-greenhouse-polluting polluting uranium to expand its industrial use of energy and Australia should supply it. The ALP Neanderthals are starting to rethink, if not out of any sense of commercial reality then because they understand this continued stance will mean well-justified electoral oblivion. Even the Green movement is pulling its head out of its posterior and recognising the global environmental values of switching to nuclear options.
Last year Australia exported a record 12,360 metric tons of uranium ore, valued at $573 million, the government estimates. Uranium prices have surged almost four-fold since 2003 as demand increases from countries like China, yet no new mines are being developed in Australia because of bans by state governments.
We should improve our economy and the global environment by removing constraints on the development of new uranium mines in Australia.
Tasteless anti-Indonesian cartoon
The squabble started with a leading Indonesian newspaper (Rakyat Merdeka) portraying John Howard and Alexander Downer having sex under a palm tree on an otherwise barren island called ‘Papua’. The Australian newspaper this morning has responded with a cartoon by Bill Leak showing President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono of Indonesia having anal intercourse with a black man who has a bone through his nose under the caption ‘No Offence Intended’.
I took offense and feel nothing but contempt for Leak and The Australian for this childish tit-for-tat attempt at humour. It isn't funny and makes no point of value.
SBY is a friend of Australia and has resisted attempts to break diplomatic relations over the incident of the 42 Papuans given asylum in Australia despite strong pressures. Australia acted inconsistently, even if with sound humanitarian intent, in giving these refugees asylum when it had refused equally deserving refugees from Afghanistan and elsewhere. The Indonesian government is better than the hateful Taliban and deserves to be accorded more respect. At times Australians should pull their heads in and shut-up – its not only morally sound but in our national self-interest.
I took offense and feel nothing but contempt for Leak and The Australian for this childish tit-for-tat attempt at humour. It isn't funny and makes no point of value.
SBY is a friend of Australia and has resisted attempts to break diplomatic relations over the incident of the 42 Papuans given asylum in Australia despite strong pressures. Australia acted inconsistently, even if with sound humanitarian intent, in giving these refugees asylum when it had refused equally deserving refugees from Afghanistan and elsewhere. The Indonesian government is better than the hateful Taliban and deserves to be accorded more respect. At times Australians should pull their heads in and shut-up – its not only morally sound but in our national self-interest.
Iraqi realism
The blog Baghdad Burning which I recommended on March 1 has been reprinted as a book and nominated for one of Britain's leading literary awards, the Samuel Johnson Award. The anonymous writer, Riverbend, described herself in her first post in September 2003 as 'female, Iraqi and 24. I survived the war. That's all you need to know'.
Riverbend writes very well - she writes from the heart. It is a realistic account of the dangerous, scary and miserable lives ordinary people in Iraq are living. The Guardian reprints a poignant section of the book here. But it is all very moving ... searching for corpses in morques ... cars with 'simple narrow coffins in anticipation of a son or daughter' ... 'people scared and watchful' ... resentment at crazy religious sectarianism and yes ... resentment of the American war effort with affection for Americans. Reminds us that war isn't an academic debate over rights and wrongs - its a nightmare for those with no political or religious axe to grind who just want to get on with their lives.
It is historic that a blog, printed as a book, is being nominated for a major literary prize.
Riverbend writes very well - she writes from the heart. It is a realistic account of the dangerous, scary and miserable lives ordinary people in Iraq are living. The Guardian reprints a poignant section of the book here. But it is all very moving ... searching for corpses in morques ... cars with 'simple narrow coffins in anticipation of a son or daughter' ... 'people scared and watchful' ... resentment at crazy religious sectarianism and yes ... resentment of the American war effort with affection for Americans. Reminds us that war isn't an academic debate over rights and wrongs - its a nightmare for those with no political or religious axe to grind who just want to get on with their lives.
It is historic that a blog, printed as a book, is being nominated for a major literary prize.
The Israel lobby
Mearsheimer and Walt's, The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy, downplays the role of oil and sees a Jewish conspiracy driving US Middle East policy. The offending article itself is a monster document (here) - an abridged version is in the London Review of Books here.The furious reaction in the US to the paper, and the moves of Harvard and the University of Chicago to distance themselves from the paper (see above), suggest that, indeed, the lobby does have a fair bit of influence. Walt has been demoted from his position as a Dean at Harvard and the paper itself linked to pro-Nazi and pro-KKK groups in a nasty attempt to smear reputations.
The paper itself has been more favourably received in the international media than in the US. Mearsheimer is quoted in the Washington Post:
"I think the Israel lobby is mainly responsible for the difference in the reactions to our piece at home and abroad," he replied. "I think that most Americans, like most foreigners, understand that the main points in our article are correct. Christopher Hitchens put the point well in Slate when he said, "Everybody knows that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and other Jewish organizations exert a vast influence over Middle East policy, especially on Capitol Hill. The influence is ot as total, perhaps, as that exerted by Cuban exiles over Cuba policy, but it is an impressive demonstration of strength by an ethnic minority. Almost everybody also concedes that the Israeli occupation has been a moral and political catastrophe and has implicated the United States in a sordid and costly morass.
The difference between the United States and the rest of the world is that you cannot say that in the United States without being accused of anti-Semitism and bringing a storm down on yourself"
I am an Israel supporter but don't support the pressure group politics being directed towards these academics.
Don't pray for me
As discussed in the past religion can provide placebo benefits but this has nothing to do with the supernatural. The New York Times confirms this by pointing out that secretly praying for someone with an illness doesn't help. See also here.
This is research with serious intent. While it is important to understand the functional consequences of religious faith, research on the effectiveness of silent prayer is foolish.
Update: There is a discussion on this over at Crooked Timber which provides the abstract to the specific study. The best of the comments sites a study by Francis Galton in 1872 which rejected any beneficial effects on the object of prayer but which recognised a 'reverse placebo' effect that can comfort the person praying - prayer as a literate cry for help:
'Nothing that I have said negatives the fact that the mind may be relieved by the utterance of prayer. The impulse to pour out the feelings in sound is not peculiar to man. Any mother that has lost her young, and wanders about moning and looking piteously for sympathy, possesses much of that which prompts men to pray in articulate words. There is a yearning of the heart, a craving for help, it knows not where, certainly from no source that it sees. Of a similar kind is the bitter cry of the hare, when the greyhound is almost upon her; she abandons hope through her own efforts and screams,—but to whom? It is a voice convulsively sent out into space, whose utterance is a physical relief. These feelings of distress and of terror are simple, and an inarticulate cry suffices to give vent to them; but the reason why man is not satisfied by uttering inarticulate cries (though sometimes they are felt to be the most appropriate) is owing to his superior intellectual powers. His memory travels back through interlacing paths, and dwells on various connected incidents; his emotions are complex, and he prays at length.'
This is research with serious intent. While it is important to understand the functional consequences of religious faith, research on the effectiveness of silent prayer is foolish.
Update: There is a discussion on this over at Crooked Timber which provides the abstract to the specific study. The best of the comments sites a study by Francis Galton in 1872 which rejected any beneficial effects on the object of prayer but which recognised a 'reverse placebo' effect that can comfort the person praying - prayer as a literate cry for help:
'Nothing that I have said negatives the fact that the mind may be relieved by the utterance of prayer. The impulse to pour out the feelings in sound is not peculiar to man. Any mother that has lost her young, and wanders about moning and looking piteously for sympathy, possesses much of that which prompts men to pray in articulate words. There is a yearning of the heart, a craving for help, it knows not where, certainly from no source that it sees. Of a similar kind is the bitter cry of the hare, when the greyhound is almost upon her; she abandons hope through her own efforts and screams,—but to whom? It is a voice convulsively sent out into space, whose utterance is a physical relief. These feelings of distress and of terror are simple, and an inarticulate cry suffices to give vent to them; but the reason why man is not satisfied by uttering inarticulate cries (though sometimes they are felt to be the most appropriate) is owing to his superior intellectual powers. His memory travels back through interlacing paths, and dwells on various connected incidents; his emotions are complex, and he prays at length.'
Taming globalisation
Joseph Stiglitz in The Nation has a brief piece pointing out how the efficiency-enhancing consequences of globalisation should be combined with policies to protect the incomes and employment of low wage earners in developed countries to promote social justice. It is a sensible counterargument to those globalisation enthusiasts who wish to simultaneously cut support for the unemployed and the economically-disadvantaged at home while effectively pursuing labour market liberalisation internationally.
Other contributors to this forum on globalisation include Thea Lee, Will Hutton, James K. Galbraith, Jeff Faux, Joel Rogers, Marcellus Andrews & Jane D'Arista. A good read.
Other contributors to this forum on globalisation include Thea Lee, Will Hutton, James K. Galbraith, Jeff Faux, Joel Rogers, Marcellus Andrews & Jane D'Arista. A good read.
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