Thursday, May 10, 2007

Light on the hill

A few days post-budget, Sportsbet payouts suggest the Coalition is more likely than Labor to win the forthcoming federal election. Other betting firms are not indicating support for the Coalition - it is close to an even money bet. But as as Tim Blair shows, they all suggest the budget has improved the Coalition's election chances.


derrida derider said...

Puzzling behaiour - the betting market should have anticipated a free-spending budget and priced it in in advance. I can only think that some punters weren't paying attention.

I think the odds for Labor are generous - they should be a clear favourite now.

hc said...

Derrida, I was going to put $1000 on Labor a month ago - they then paid better than even money. I thought if they won (on balance likely) I would get a financial reward whereas if they lost I would be blessed with better government.

But I now think it will be a close election - I don't want to throw my money away. I'll wait.

BTW - the budget was not so free-spoending given the income receipts.