Thursday, November 23, 2006

Nice try Ted

Labor Premier Steve Bracks should be comfortably returned to office this Saturday in the Victorian State Elections although his Opposition challenger, Ted Baillieu, has performed well.

On primary votes an ACNeilson poll sees the Labor Party with a narrow lead on primary votes of 41% compared to the Opposition's 40%. The Greens should gain about 12% of the vote and, despite their selective deals with some Liberal candidates, Green preferences will favor Labor. This would lead to a two-party preferred vote of about 54% to Labor and 46% to the Opposition.

In the 2002 election Labor scored 62 of the 88 seats in the lower house. On current trends the swing against Labor at 4% or about half that needed to gain office. The Liberals and Nationals have improved their position but not by enough to regain power.

Update: One small, recent poll might make me eat my words. The McNair Gallup poll of 609 voters tips that the election might be close. A significant 46% said they would vote for the Liberals or Nationals and only 39% supported Labor. The poll showed, on a two-party preferred basis, Labor on 50.5% and the Liberal-National coalition on 49.5% - representing a 7% swing from Labor. But at the close of betting 25th November Centrebet were offering $1-06 for a $1 bet on a Labor victory and $7-00 for a Liberal-National Victory. The money is backing a near certain Labor win.


Bring Back the Currency Lad's blog said...

I can't remember you saying the same thing about Iron Mark

hc said...

Homer, I read ML's book and his identification of what's wrong with the faction-ridden ALP is sound. But his campaigning was inept. He has a royal working class chip on his shoulder than annoys me.

But basically ML is not within a country-mile of John Howard's competency as PM.

Bring Back the Currency Lad's blog said...

You are avoiding the point Harry.

If you think ted campaigned well then Iron Mark was in the same league particularly given the call is made BEFORE the election

hc said...

Homer, Not quite clear what is irritating you. Latham was trounced by Howard on the Tasmanian forests issue and called for 'cut and run' from Iraq which sounded foolish.

OK Latham was visible like Baillieu. He was just inept - people had doubts about his stability and 'cool' and these doubts proved justified.