Coalition to be returned?

Some interesting posts at the oz politics blog on the next Federal election.

• The Morgan Poll forecasts a two-party preferred vote of 57.5% to Federal Labor.
• The bookies still give odds to the Coalition winning of 57.4%.
• Three weeks ago 60% of Labor supporters believed Labor could win. Hardly surprising this is much more than with Latham a Leader and facing an election.

I’ll stick to my previous views that the Coalition will scrape back in with a reduced majority. Interest rates should fall this year, inflation is moving lower, unemployment is low and the economy is in great shape. Howard will wait until Rudd’s honeymoon period comes to an end when I think the electorate will go for more of the same.

Labor’s policy on industrial relations is Neanderthal, on nuclear fuels crazy and, right-or-wrong, Australians won’t be comfortable with committing to desert our major ally, in Iraq. Labor’s industry policy – as stupid as it is – will get a few votes but my guess not enough.