Monday, June 18, 2007

Election polls and gambling markets

According to the AC Neilson poll Labor has hung onto a landslide lead against the Government's sustained assault even though John Howard strongly outstrips Kevin Rudd on leadership and economic credentials and is regarded as having a better grasp of foreign policy. Kevin Rudd is seen as more open to ideas than John Howard. Labor has lost only one point in a month, leading the Government 57-43 per cent in two-party preferred terms.

According to Newspoll, Labor remains in a position to wipe out the Coalition at the next election, 56 to 44 per cent.

The two polls are close but the rate of shift back to the Liberals is greater for Newspoll. As usual the analysis of the polls splits on party lines – The Age providing the AC Neilson poll sees solid support for Labor being maintained while The Australian sees the cup as half empty for Labor – the Liberals are catching up! It is pathetic.

The odds favoring a Liberal victory have shortened in the betting markets. Its close to a 50:50 bet though Labor has a slight edge.

3 comments:

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