Sunday, April 09, 2006

Attacking Iran?

Does the US seek to attack Iran as Salon believes?

Current and former American military and intelligence officials said that Air Force planning groups are drawing up lists of targets, and teams of American combat troops have been ordered into Iran, under cover, to collect targeting data and to establish contact with anti-government ethnic-minority groups. The officials say that President Bush is determined to deny the Iranian regime the opportunity to begin a pilot program, planned for this spring, to enrich uranium.
Intrade will now pay more if Israel or the US launch a strike before 30 March 2007 than they would 6 weeks ago. So if you were indifferent then, and believe the Salon story, place your bets.

The Salon article analyses the likelihood of attack, the plausible form of the attack and provides pessimistic assessment of the military and strategic costs the Americans will face. Spectator argues that Iran already has missile technology that will carry nuclear warheads into Europe.

Update: The BBC report that Iran dismisses the prospect of an attack as 'psychological warfare' while the UK Foreign Secretary, Jack Staw, sees no basis for the claim. Again the BBC report President Bush dismisses as speculation that a nuclear attack on the nuclear faciities in Iran might occur. The Iranians counter that US 'news' of a possible attack is 'psychological warfare' - that if the US were going to attack it would not be pre-announced.

(Thanks Rabee for the Salon reference).


rabee said...

Bush has a Masianic vision that needs to be realized before the congressional elections. He wants regime change in Iran.

But nothing less than many legions of zealous Christian missionaries and a vivacious and merciless inquisition will ensure a permanent regime change in Iran.


I’m short selling insurance stocks and buying Halliburton call options.

Not my real name said...

Of course Bush is 'planning' to attack Iran. I think the article is incredibly misleading in that it makes out that this was something new. American have probably been planning ways which Iran might be attacked if it came to that for about 30 years.

Lists of targets etc are probably in place in the US for lots of countries. That doesn't mean that next week they are going to bomb them all.

All it means is there is some escalation NOW that America is worried about, rather than starting to plan an attack NOW, if you know what I mean.

hc said...

nmrm, I got the impression that operational plans were being suggested that were quite a bit more than hypotheticals for various contingencies. And the claimed anger in sections of the military suggest the plans have real intent. But I agree with your general point about contingency planning and increasing investment in such when the scale of pressure rises.

hc said...

nmrn. The Wasington Post supports your view - plans but early intervention unlikely.