Thursday, March 26, 2009

World trade collapse

The value of world trade will fall 9% in 2009 compared to growth of a miserable 2% (not 4.5% as forecast) in 2008 the WTO said on Monday.  World production will fall by 1-2% in 2009, the first fall since the 1930s.  Further falls in trade can be anticipated as the recession intensifies - the unavailability of trade finance is proving a constraint for developing countrie and declines in exports have strong multiplierr effects on all trading economies.

The economic crisis that has descended on the globe will not end quickly. A move toward protectionism would naturally worsen things.

2 comments:

Sir Henry Casingbroke said...

Bit off topic I know, but there have been two notable defences of the Geithner plan: 1. by James Surowiecki on the New Yorker website (and its corollary, a negative critique of a Geithner negative critique by Joe Stiglitz); and 2. by Tom Friedman on Lateline tonight, one presumes voiced by him in his NYT column.

I think a comment on the progress of the Geithner plan, and its toxic buyout plan would be timely, methinks.

Janet Brown said...

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has done great work on key issues facing America -- assessing our country's strengths and weaknesses and outlining the public policies we must pursue to succeed in the world economy. I was glad I could help take action on their web site (here) with several petitions focusing on everything from the economy and energy to healthcare and legal reform.