I forecast in April this year - in the face of hysteria about $200/barrell oil prices - that the price of oil would approach $75US/barrell within 18 months and would settle around there. After I made my prediction it increased to a peak of $145-29US. Today- about 5 months later - it touched $91-23US. Indeed we seem to be moving back into what looks increasingly like an OPEC-determined oil price driven by supply rather than oil prices driven by surging developing country demands. I'll stick to my earlier medium term forecast - there is plenty of exploitable oil in the world at $75US/barrell. The OPEC cartel-type supply restrictions have a long history of repeated failure.
Of course, the current oil price fall is partly due to expectations of lower economic activity associated with the current capital market crisis. This capital market crisis has however dented speculative activity in oil markets that will make things easier for motorists and more difficult for OPEC and the Russians.