Friday, October 19, 2007

Cheerful Friday thought - Coalition on the mend

Howard closes in on the riff-raff.

The Age poll shows Labor down 2 points to 54% of the preferred vote and the Coalition up 2 points to 46%. The Gallaxy poll puts Labor’s position at 53% versus the Coalition’s 47%. John Howard has improved his approval rating to the closest it has been behind Rudd since the latter was elected and went on his honeymoon.

It is a long way to go but – I’ll buy a bottle of Bollinger in anticipation – the Federal election remains a contest. The revival of Coalition prospects was partly due to its announced tax package but also simply the inevitable narrowing in the polls following the election announcement. Australians are fearful of jeopardising their future with union-dominated, hack politicians. My guess is that Rudd’s ‘me-tooism’ and ‘small targets strategy’ (something the left criticised when Kim Beazley tried the strategy) will fail as it should. Why give up on a tried and proven team when the challenger offers nothing substantively new?

The nodding ALP dills need to respond with something more than some clich├ęs about skills and irrelevancies concerning the IMF. The tax cuts were promised to be phased in over 5 years thereby defusing inflationary impacts. Wayne Swan is so unimpressive – unimaginative, hack politician.

Yippee! I enjoyed my golf yesterday and the prospects of retaining civilised, decent, experienced government in Australia invigorates me today. Let us hope Rudd accepts loser Kennett's advice and rejects the tax cuts! Where is that Bollinger?

Update: The betting markets further bolster my optimism: Labor on $1-60 this morning and the Coalition on $2-20. This is the shortest the Coalition price has been in weeks.

Update: The Coalition's tax plan has been endorsed by Labor who have replicated it. There is slight differentiation with some low impact 'soaking the rich' restrictions on the tax cuts and a minor boost to reducing education costs - dumb cause they could have just given the money to needy schools at lower cost. But overall good policy choice by Labor but what a pathetic alternative government. Alternative? Peter Martin outlines the plan.

Update: Rudd's wax policy - No, Kevin! NO, KEVIN! NOOOOOO! (From, Tim Blair).


Bring Back CL's blog said...

hey Arry,

Tell us the swing involved and then tell us the margin of error in the polls. Betcha can't get the one for Galaxy.

now is the swing greater ot smaller than the MOE and what does that mean.

In comparison to Costello in 96 does Swan have a greater understnding of the job, we know he has a greater work ethic and my guess is that stint as a politics lecturer gave him a beteer grasp of economics than Costello being a juinor barrister.


Ever looked at the Canadian economy

hc said...

I agree Homer that the finding could be a statistical fluke but that it was verified in two independent polls is encouraging.

How many Federal budgets has Swan presented? Can he ever mouthe anything other than pure cliche?

Swan is shadow treasury because beyond Rudd and Gillard L:abor's ranks are thin.

derrida derider said...

A lousy two percentage points from a $34B tax cut which the "riff raff" are gonna be able to easily match real soon now? Not really good news for your side.

Slim said...

If $34 billion can't buy a 2% lift in the polls your lot might as pack it in. Hardly a surprising poll result - indeed Team Howard would be in even deeper trouble if they hadn't improved. So we're only looking at a landslide of 1996 proportions, not 1975.

But the polling will be more informative once Kevin07 has released their response to the Great Tax Cut Plan for the Future of Australia.

Putting aside statistical issues such as MOE, sample size, mid-week, etc, Team Howard won't be taking much comfort from the primary vote indicators - ALP up 2%, Coalition 1%. This suggests that the polling shift is coming from the smaller party vote or even the soft Liberal vote - what Liberal leaning swinger isn't going to get excited about a tax cut?

Team Howard are winning only 2 of the 7 or 8 issues identified as determining the election - the economy and the War on Terror. They've fired a grand opening shot in their strong suit, but the other issues are yet to be played out. Team Howard also have to get through the inflation figures and the Reserve Bank's interest rate decision.

It's very early in the match. The ball has been bounced and Coalition has scored a rushed goal. Well done! But it's a long way to go.

Never having been able to afford one, I wouldn't know, but does Bolle improve if you have to store it away for 10 years?

Mark U said...

"How many Federal budgets has Swan presented? Can he ever mouthe anything other than pure cliche?"

I personally don't think Swan is all that brilliant, but your logic is a bit faulty here.

On this basis, we should never change government unless the shadow Treasurer has been Treasurer in a previous government. So we should never have tossed out the Howard-Fraser government and voted for Hawke-Keating, as Keating had never been Treasurer. Or we should never have tossed out the Keating-Willis government because Costello had never been Treasurer.