Today's Galaxy Poll shows an improvement in the chances of the Coalition - Labor gets 44% of the primary vote compared to the Coalition's 41%. The two party preferred gives Labor 54% and the Coalition 46%. The Coalition have improved their primary vote 4% since April-May. An interesting analysis of the current situation is here. This confirms that the swing to Labor is 'soft' in the sense of being reversible.
I have patiently followed the polls and the betting markets for months. For a long-time I thought the betting markets were unduely optimistic for the Coalition - today Sportingbet is paying $1-60 for a $1 bet on Labor winning and $2-30 for a bet on the Coalition. As the opinion polls have shown the Coalition recovering the odds offered by the bookies for a Coalition win have narrowed.
It is anyone's election in my view though Labor on current poll trends should win by a landslide.
As numerous commentators have said: The forthcoming election will be an interesting test of pollsters versus betting markets. As a good economist I am supposed to say markets aggregate information efficiently.
Monday, July 30, 2007
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Harry, I've been following Sportingbet for some time and the Coalition's odds have lengthened considerably in recent weeks. The bookies and the polls are in considerable agreement. I've been reconciled to a Coalition defeat for quite a while and can't see that changing. Personally I find it very depressing, and for NSW people it means that 2007 is a particularly black year. We've had arguably the worst State government in Australia's history (with the possible exception of John Cain's in Vic) re-elected and we're about to eject one of the two best Federal governments in history (I couple Howard's government with the Hawke government - not Keating).
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