Monday, July 30, 2007

Who will win the next election?

Today's Galaxy Poll shows an improvement in the chances of the Coalition - Labor gets 44% of the primary vote compared to the Coalition's 41%. The two party preferred gives Labor 54% and the Coalition 46%. The Coalition have improved their primary vote 4% since April-May. An interesting analysis of the current situation is here. This confirms that the swing to Labor is 'soft' in the sense of being reversible.

I have patiently followed the polls and the betting markets for months. For a long-time I thought the betting markets were unduely optimistic for the Coalition - today Sportingbet is paying $1-60 for a $1 bet on Labor winning and $2-30 for a bet on the Coalition. As the opinion polls have shown the Coalition recovering the odds offered by the bookies for a Coalition win have narrowed.

It is anyone's election in my view though Labor on current poll trends should win by a landslide.

As numerous commentators have said: The forthcoming election will be an interesting test of pollsters versus betting markets. As a good economist I am supposed to say markets aggregate information efficiently.


whyisitso said...

Harry, I've been following Sportingbet for some time and the Coalition's odds have lengthened considerably in recent weeks. The bookies and the polls are in considerable agreement. I've been reconciled to a Coalition defeat for quite a while and can't see that changing. Personally I find it very depressing, and for NSW people it means that 2007 is a particularly black year. We've had arguably the worst State government in Australia's history (with the possible exception of John Cain's in Vic) re-elected and we're about to eject one of the two best Federal governments in history (I couple Howard's government with the Hawke government - not Keating).

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