Gondwana Link

One of my favourite places to visit in Australia is the southwest corner of the country. It has a fantastic variety of rare and interesting avifauna and some of the best natural wildflower displays I have seen. The area around Albany and particularly Two Peoples Bay interest me but the whole south west is a great place to visit.

Gondwana Link is an ambitious ecological program in southwest Western Australia that seeks to protect, manage and restore bushland in a 1000 kilometre long pathway, from the wet forests of the Australia's south west corner to the woodlands and mallee bordering the Nullarbor Plain. As part of this program Bush Heritage, Greening Australia and The Nature Conservancy have been raising funds, buying strategic properties, managing the bushland and re-vegetating large areas of cleared land. The idea is to increase ecological resilience to such events as climate change by providing a connected corridor of habitat that permits animal and plant relocations.

South-western Western Australia (SWWA) is (following the classification of Norman Myers) Australia’s single biodiversity hotspot. To qualify as a hotspot, a region must meet two criteria: it must contain at least 1,500 species of vascular plants (> 0.5% of the world’s total) as endemics, and it has to have lost at least 70% of its original habitat. In fact this area contains more than 10,000 plant and animal species – many of them endemic to this region. A great deal of native vegetation has been lost to land clearing and even fertile agricultural land is being lost to salinity. The promise is that improved conservation of landscapes will help conserve species and improve agricultural productivity.

The project itself commenced in 2002 and when complete will link 146,000 square kilometres of reconnected and restored land. Yesterday the Australian Government announced the 946 hectare Monjebup Creek Reserve would join the Peniup, Nowanup, Chereninup Creek and Yarrabee Westfarmers Reserves as part of the Gondwana Link project.

The southwest region as a whole is vulnerable to climate change. It is under significant stress due to poor land management. Land clearing has created salinity problems and impacted on the region’s biodiversity. These stresses have increased the region’s sensitivity to further climate–related changes: See Allen Consulting Group (2005).

Furthermore, SWWA has already experienced climate changes. This region has seen a 10-20 per cent decrease in its winter rainfall over the last 30 years and in tandem with this, temperatures have also increased substantially over the last half century.

Studies by the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative (IOCI) have indicated that the decrease in rainfall has been accompanied, and been associated with a change in the large scale global atmospheric circulation, which is consistent with changes projected by global climate models incorporating anthropogenic forcing. There is insufficient evidence to indicate that the enhanced greenhouse effect alone is responsible for the shift in rainfall levels and temperature patterns. Most likely, the climate changes are a function of both natural variability and anthropogenic change. Nevertheless, these climate pressures remain, and science suggests that they are likely to continue into the future as on overlay on ‘natural’ occurrences.

In work that I am now undertaking I will look at the implications of the Gondwana Link project in terms of its capacity for assisting in dealing with climate change. If the main relocation consequences of global warming are to encourage species south to cooler climates then species in the northern extremity of the project area will head south or south east. One difficulty is that numerous endangered species in this zone lie on its southern extremity and they cannot relocate into the ocean. For example, heathland systems in this area exhibit high levels of biodiversity and are already under pressure from habitat fragmentation and salinity. They are trapped from further southward migration as temperatures warm. Of course connecting up areas of disjoint native habitat by means of corridors will improve environmental resilience generally but this latter concern is a real one.

Some useful links: Official website; Bush Heritage News and here; The Nature Consultancy and Greening Australia. The Western Australian Greenhouse Strategy.

It is worth noting that Bush Heritage is also developing a Kosciuszko-to-coast (K2C) project in Southern NSW that will connect the Australian Alps with remnant bushland on the coastal ranges to the east. Scottsdale Reserve has already been purchased by Bush Heritage. It covers 1328 hectares of the Murrumbidgee River valley 12 kilometres north of Bredbo in New South Wales, a 45-minute drive south of Canberra. It rises in elevation from a large fertile grassy valley with rich alluvial soils, through dry sclerophyll woodlands and onto a grassy woodland plateau. This plateau drops steeply into the Murrumbidgee River itself.

University of Melbourne model

I posted on the Melbourne Model being pursued by the University of Melbourne last year. The idea is to have undergraduate generalist degrees followed by full fee postgraduate degrees along the lines of the US liberal arts model. Vice Chancellor Glyn Davis already seems to be getting nervous about the implications of the plan for enrolments there next year. The fraction of full-fee paying students will increase from 25% to 33% and, even apart from this, the costs of gaining a degree will increase because of the longer times taken to gain qualifications. If one believes in the 'law of demand' the moves by Melbourne will reduce numbers seeking to utilise its programs.

Essentially options for existing students are restricted – they can already do ‘double degree combos’ if they wish – and, even apart from this, programs will become more expensive in time and aggregate tuition charges. Other universities around Australia eagerly look towards able students heading in their direction rather than to Melbourne. Of course I hope that happens.

Melbourne will offer a handful of top school achievers reasonably lucrative scholarships. Sixty students who achieve an ENTER score of 99.9 will get their undergraduate degree course HECS-free along with cash incentives of $5000 a year, or $10,000 for interstate students. Students who achieve an ENTER of 98 or higher will receive a one-off $2500 payment to help offset costs.

One wonders if these sorts of measures will have much effect. My guess is that most of these top ENTER students, at least in Victoria, would already have intended to enroll at Melbourne.

Perhaps it will prevent them from shifting elsewhere. If not the only effect of the scholarships will be to redistribute resources to, in the main, the well-off private-school-trained students who get the bulk of the top ENTER scores. It would then have almost no efficiency effects and would be distributionally regressive.

Professor Davis says “We're trying to establish a culture that says (we would like) the very best students to aspire to come to Melbourne and we've got to make it possible for them to get here.”
That’s fine if additional good students are brought to Melbourne and if education objectives are seen to be a zero sum game where one university sets out to take all. Its not my view of how things should operate.

Of Substance

One of the better publications I receive on licit and illicit drug consumption in Australia is Of Substance.

This is published by the Australian National Council on Drugs and is available in printed version or online free of charge (at www.ofsubstance.org.au) coutesy of the Department of Health and Aging. The April 2007 issue has just come out. It contains interesting articles. I’ll pick 3 examples.

An excellent article by Don Weatherburn on alcohol and indigenous Australians. The general argument supports Noel Pearson’s view that restricting the availability of alcohol and other drugs is better than spending a lot on treatment of abuse problems. Drug and alcohol problems, rather than social disadvantage, drive a great deal of indigenous problems with the criminal justice system. Education and employment are important but so too are the direct effects of drug and alcohol abuse.

The National Drug Research Group also points out that alcohol kills an indigenous Australian every 38 hours – mostly due to cirrhosis or suicide. The average age of their death is 35.

I also liked the review of the Australian Secondary Students’ Alcohol and Drug Survey for which I cannot find a weblink. More school kids aged 12-17 are alcohol abstinent since 1999 (29% in 2005 compared to 35% then) but the long-term trend in ‘problem drinking’ (more than 7 drinks in the past week in a single session for males) is discouraging (6% in 1984, 9% in 2005). The really good news is the massive decline in smoking. Current smokers were 19% of the total in 1999 and only 9% in 2005 while committed (addicted) smokers fell from 9% to 6% today. The fraction that used cannabis in the month before the survey halved over this same period from 14% to 7%. There are now more cannabis than tobacco users in our high schools.

Soak the rent-seeking gambling firms

The decision of the Victorian Government to levy an extra $1300 charge on poker machines to help fund health care is an interesting one. It takes the levy per machine to $4333 which, Tattersall’s chief executive Dick McIlwain laments, could ‘prevent further investment in the industry’ (AFR today, subscription only).

The extra-normal profits the gambling firms make (Tattersalls, Tabcorp and PBL) are due to the monopoly privileges they enjoy in owning gambling capital. These monopoly privileges are awarded by the State government.

Victoria’s gambling licences are due to be renewed in 2012 and the bidding firms will make smaller bids for licence renewal as a consequence of these higher tax levies. They will also reduce their bids as a consequence of the apparent regulatory risk they encounter in operating in a political and community environment that is basically hostile to their continued existence – in 1999 the levy was set at $333 per machine then in April 2005 the Government raised the levy from $1533 to $3033. Overall, the levy has trebled in 2 years. It is still, however, only a tiny fraction (about 4%) of revenue yielded per machine:

Tattersalls earns an average of $257 per machine per day, roughly $93,800 a year, while Tabcorp earns $263 per machine per day, about $96,000 a year.

The increased charges are a good move. Victoria doesn’t want increased investment by this industry – indeed we would be better-off with a smaller, more regulated industry given the scale of the social disaster inflicted by the introduction of pokies. While Mr Bracks likes to forget it, around 87% of Victorians favour slashing poker machine numbers. The public income generated from pokies is based on a regressive tax built on human misery. We could also do without the post-politics careers for ex-Labor pollies funded by big gambling. We would also be better-off raising this revenue as a congestion tax levied on Melbourne’s traffic.

The large gambling firms take no risks and not developing innovative or new products. They deserve at best a competitive return on assets employed. Governments should decide on the basis of community values to optimise the scale of the delivery of gambling products – this will presumably be lower than the scale that would maximise delivery of monopoly rents. It should then tax all of these rents away to ensure at most a competitive return on capital advanced.

The recent tax hikes should not leave these parasitic businesses under any illusion about the propensity of future governments to increase tax rates to capture any increased rents.

China addresses climate change

This is good news. China's Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, announced that his country was prepared negotiate on a new agreement limiting global warming emissions, to replace the Kyoto Protocol after 2012. China is not subject to emissions targets but will soon become the largest greenhouse gas emitter - China's cooperation is essential if global emissions are to be brought under control.

Research and political activity in China suggest it may be beginning to grasp that climate change poses a danger to itself. There is an extensive research effort going on in China that addresses climate change concerns.

A Reuters report suggests that China aims to reduce by 40% its greenhouse gas emissions per dollar of output by 2020 with an 80% cut by 2050. This is a 'no-regrets' oriented conservation option that makes sense for a country with low per capita energy consumption but low energy conservation efficiencies. China will reject strict caps for decades - this makes sense given that increasing per capita energy consumption is a development policy objective.

China's First National Climate Change Assessment that is about to be published in revised form notes the extreme vulnerability of China to climate change. This reflects its highly fragile environment, long coast-lines and current low per capita energy consumption.

The Chinese PM's announcement two days ago puts further pressure on countries like the US (and Australia) to cap emissions.

Don't legalise cannabis 3

Even more than binge drinking, teenage cannabis use causes poor mental health and increases the likelihood of progression to more dangerous drugs.

Researcher George Patton, who conducted the study for Melbourne University's Centre for Adolescent Heath, said that while both alcohol and cannabis carried health risks, the overwhelming evidence was that cannabis was 'the drug for life's future losers'.

This is apart from the fact that it causes lung cancer and might send you mad.

So it goes: Kurt Vonnegut 1922-2007

A photo montage to a wonderful human being.

Update: A tribute by Anglophile.

Indigenous smoking

Australia’s aboriginals smoke at more than double the rate of non-indigenous Australians. They will accordingly suffer at least twice the level of heath damages from smoking. They are also very poorly informed of the heath consequences of smoking.

Those interested in aboriginal health often focus on issues of alcohol consumption and poor diet that produce the atrocious health outcomes of aboriginals. But in terms of heath damage nothing comes close to rivaling the damaging effects of cigarette smoking. It is not something that should be swept under the carpet - that a male aboriginal born in 2001 will die 17 years earlier than a non-indigenous male born in the same year is strongly linked to high rates of cigarette smoking.

In 1995, about 51% of indigenous adults smoked (ABS (1999)). Ten years later, the proportion of the indigenous population who smoke is unchanged, while the proportion in the non-indigenous population is 17 per cent (ABS (2006)). Higher rates of smoking are associated with lower socio-economic status, unemployment and early school leaving. These are characteristics of much of the indigenous population. Dispossession and dislocation are thought to contribute to the low self-esteem which is also associated with smoking. Members of the ‘stolen generations’
are more likely to smoke than other Indigenous Australians (Baker et al. (2006)).

Indigenous Australians are ill-informed of the dangers of smoking: a 1994 survey showed that one third thought it was safe to smoke up to one pack of cigarettes a day (ABS (1996)). While the level of understanding is likely to have increased since that survey, many people were unaware, for example, of the link between smoking and diabetes complications in 2004. There is little awareness of the dangers of passive smoking and of smoking while pregnant (NACCHO (2004)).

References

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (1996). National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Survey 1994: Health of Indigenous Australians. Canberra.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2006) Tobacco Smoking in Australia: A Snapshot, 2004-05. Canberra.

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (1999). National Health Survey: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Results, Australia, 1995, Canberra.

National Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisation, (2004). Tobacco Time For Action: National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Tobacco Control Project.

Women & cigarette smoking

Lee Smith sent me a useful link confirming that women are more susceptible to the adverse health effects of smoking than men. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has risen among women killing 1900 in Australia in 1993 and 2300 in 2003 – you’ve come a long way baby. This compares to a drop from 4000 to 3200 deaths among men. About 60% of COPD deaths are attributed to smoking.

I have been accumulating a data file on young women and smoking. There are a few interesting facts that I think many are unaware of.

To summarise: Young women have a higher incidence of smoking than young men perhaps because they are more easily addicted to nicotine than young men and use smoking as a technique for weight control. But young women are also subject to increased health risks from smoking.

In more detail.

Among Australian 14-19 year olds, more women smoke (11.9%) than men (9.5%). It seems that females are more susceptible to the addictive character of nicotine. A study of 12-13 year olds showed that the median number of days from initial tobacco use to symptoms of dependence was 21 days for girls, and 183 days for boys (DiFranza et al (2002)).

Studies of adolescents aged 12-17 also find that females often believe that smoking controls weight (Bowles et al. (2001)). Moreover, girls who report trying diets were more likely to take up smoking (Austin et al (2001)). 12-15 year old girls who reported valuing thinness in a Massachusetts study were nearly five times as likely as those who did not value it to take up smoking in the following four years (Honjo et al. (2003)).

It is certainly true that smoking cessation is associated with weight gain. Quit programs typically report an expected weight gain of 2-3 kilograms, but studies report average gains of about 5kg, and unbiased estimates of nearly 10kg, after taking in to consideration the characteristics of successful quitters (Eisenberg & Quinn (2006)). In one study, subjects following a diet to reduce weight gain after quitting were more likely to relapse (Hall et al (1992)).

Young women may not be aware that they have a greater risk of contracting lung cancer than men who smoke the same amount. Studies show that, even taking into consideration body weight, women are more susceptible to tobacco carcinogens (Zhang et al (1996)).

For young women even more than men - don't smoke!

References

Austin, S. B. & Gortmaker, (2001). Dieting and smoking initiation in early adolescent girls and boys: A prospective study. American Journal of Public Health, 91, 446-450

Baker A; Ivers RG; Bowman J; Butler T; Kay-Lambkin FJ; Wye P; Walsh RA; Pulver LJ; Richmond R; Belcher J; Wilhelm K & Wodak A. (2006) Where there's smoke, there's fire: high prevalence of smoking among some subpopulations and recommendations for intervention. Drug and Alcohol Review, 25, 1, 85-96.

Bowles, S., & Johnson, P. (2001). Gender, weight concerns, and adolescent smoking. Journal of Addictive Diseases. 20, 2, 5-14.

DiFranza JR, Savageau JA, Rigotti NA, Fletcher K, Ockene1 JK , McNeill AD, M Coleman M & C Wood, (2002) Development of symptoms of tobacco dependence in youths: 30 month follow up data from the DANDY study. Tobacco Control. 11, 228 –235.

Eisenberg, D. & Quinn B.C. (2006) Estimating the Effect of Smoking Cessation on Weight Gain: An Instrumental Variable Approach. Health Services Research 41, 6.

Gilliland, F.D., Berhane, K., McConnell, R., Gauderman, W.J., Vora, H., Rappaport, E.B., Avol, E. and J.M. Peters (2000) Maternal smoking during pregnancy, environmental tobacco smoke exposure and childhood lung function. Thorax 55, 271-276

Hall, S.M., Tunstall, C.D., Vila K.L., & J Duffy. (1992), Weight gain prevention and smoking cessation: cautionary findings, American Journal of Public Health, 82, 6, 799-803.

Honjo, K. & Siegel, M. (2003) Perceived importance of being thin and smoking initiation among young girls. Tobacco Control 12, 289-295.

Zang EA, Wynder EL. (1997) Differences in lung cancer risk between men and women: examination of the evidence. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 21, 88, 3-4, 183-92.

Don't admit immigrants with HIV to Australia

John Howard reiterated Government policy when he said that those with HIV should not be admitted as migrants to Australia.

Under Australia's existing immigration arrangements, all people over the age of 15 who apply for permanent residence are tested for HIV. People under 15 are tested if either of their parents is HIV-positive, if they are an applicant for an adoption or child visa or an unaccompanied humanitarian visa, or if there are clinical indications or a history of possible infection. Temporary visa applicants are screened for HIV if they are seeking to work as a doctor, dentist or nurse.

Permanent visa applicants with a medical condition are automatically knocked back if the lifetime cost of their treatment exceeds $21,000.

The Immigration Department estimates the lifetime cost of an HIV-positive person is $240,000 to $250,000. In 2005-06, HIV-positive people accounted for 48% of requests for health waivers in cases where lifetime medical costs exceeded $200,000.

So Australia is being used by non-resident HIV sufferers who gain a health waver as a way of paying for the medical costs of their HIV infection. Australian Federation of AIDS Organisations spokesman Don Baxter said people with HIV ‘contribute enormously to Australia's benefit’. They would want to be contributing a lot given the infection risks they pose in the Australian community and the huge health costs they pose on us.

Australia’s HIV infection rate has soared since 1998. It would be negligent of any government to admit to Australia immigrants it knew was suffering from HIV. Do not admit them and do not give health waivers to those who come here with HIV.

One claim cited in the Arab Times is that Australia might be guilty of discrimination. It is discrimination but what a great idea discrimination in this instance. Australian citizens with HIV should receive normal health assistance. Those with HIV who live elsewhere should continue to live elsewhere. Australians who want to live with their HIV-infected partner in Australia should post a non-refundable $245,000 bond with the Commonwealth Government covering their partner’s heath costs attributable to HIV/AIDS. They should also be liable for any damage costs incurred by the partner as a consequence of spreading the HIV virus.

The claim that immigrants provide only a small component of HIV cases in Australia is not an argument for admitting those who are affected by HIV. Its an argument shoewing that the costs of excluding those with a serious disease that works against our national interest HIV is a small one to those excluded.

How to beat your wife - a user guide

Examining the way men treat women in the Middle East is almost a clichéd popular sport. Other than football I love sport. So I introduce a film clip designed mainly for my male readers – though it might help my female viewers understand – explaining how to beat up your wife if she steps out of line.

This video shows that wife-beating is a form of ‘therapy’. A beating is ‘not an assault but discipline’. Understanding this it is difficult to dispute the right of a husband to give his spouse a decent beating- after all he is merely correcting a mistake and he does have the authority:

Quote: Sura 4:34 – ‘Men have authority over women because God has made the one superior to the other...’.

This might sometimes be difficult to explain to some recalcitrant, little women. I mean ha, ha, ha if I told my wife that she was the ‘inferior’ and subject to my discipline, ha ha ha, she might convulse with laughter or target me with a saucepan. Is there a video explaining how to beat someone rolling on the floor with laughter! Can I throw the saucepan back?

The pain, embarrassment, divorce and legal costs might end up being mainly mine!

The female interviewer in the above-mentioned video points out to the gentleman justifying the right-to-beat logic (again, on the grounds that ‘Allah says that man has the best judgement’) that ‘women sometimes have better judgement’.

I like her spunk though she obviously needs to be corrected.

The other woman interviewing this gentleman had conducted a survey around the Middle East and came up with the hypothesis of the ‘culture of the electric cable’ that was valid for many civilisation centres - Palestine, Jordon, Kuwait, Egypt and Syria. The interesting multicultural hypothesis: Even men who didn’t know each other in these different centres all mystically gravitate to the practise of beating their wives with heavy electric cables.

Would it help these folks if they thought of Israel as a female country?

The gentleman in the video points out that only ‘light beatings’ (don’t leave a mark, don’t break bones, don’t kill) are permitted so the spunky female interviewer asks – ‘what is a light beating’ with an electric cable? The gentleman evades this one but does point out ‘With some women nothing helps except beatings… Let’s face it, women were created from a crooked rib’. Plausible, I have read it somewhere else I am sure.

In a follow-up video another gentleman asserts that beating wives is part of religious law – on how to ‘manage’ a wife ‘like an electric appliance’. The natural and scientific way of looking at marital relationships! I guess the electric appliance idea justifies use of an electric cable. That’ll teach ‘em.

If correct wife-beating practises could be spread internationally a cultural innovation would improve discipline among mothers and daughters on the basis of values that counteract Western decadence. Instead of treating child and wife-bashing as a social problem we could use the mother-of-all-electric-cord-mercies to promote misogyny as a social ideal.

Taliban values – primitive but devout - would direct us to a more civilised future! Death to Israel! Death to America! Flay that butt without killing her or breaking her skin.

And death to women who make us lose our namus.

As a postscript note from Feministing:

An Internet poll conducted by a local newspaper showed that 42% of married Saudi men say they do not have sexual problems. Meanwhile, 93% of married women surveyed said they were experiencing sexual problems.

Where’s the electric cord? What’s the matter with these ungrateful femmes?

Next week: Genital mutilation and more on honour killings. The way to eliminate 50% of the world's psycho-social problems.

Unemployment at record low

The 4.5% unemployment figure – the lowest in Australia in 32 years – is fantastic news for working Australians. 276,000 new jobs, mostly full-time jobs were created over the past year. Was it due to the abolition of Unfair Dismissal Laws? Was it due to the mining boom or to the general investment boom sweeping through the economy?

The most reasonable answer is – a 'bit of both' though small business makes it clear they are much more prepared to take on new staff if they know they can easily get rid of them if they are not needed or don’t perform. That sounds plausible. Of course the response of the unions will be that those that do get jobs are worse off in terms of pay and conditions than they were before.

There might be an element of truth in that but the reduction in unemployment is a fantastic outcome for those who have previously been excluded from the workforce. We need real evidence but, as excess supplies of labour dry up, this should force firms to improve rather than degrade pay and conditions. I am amused that, The Age, which is so consistently biased against anything the Government does, cannot even see the possibility of higher wages as a good outcome. The fear is that it will force the RBA to increase interest rates! The Government cannot win - it wouldn’t matter what happened to wages they will be condemned in one way or another.

Licit & illicit drug use in Australia

What are the facts on illicit and licit drug use in Australia? The NDARC data published at the University of New South Wales is close to worthless. It is really difficult to understand why governments fund such a wasteful enterprise. By far the best available picture is the correctly sampled data provided by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Its Statistics on Drug Use in Australia 2006 came out today.

This surveys almost 30,000 Australians aged 12+. There is much good news – reduced smoking rates, suggestions that problems of methamphetamine may have been exaggerated, declines in alcohol and drug use by school children. But also much bad news. The bad psychiatric outcomes associated with cannabis use stand out as do high levels of risky drinking. Problems of indigenous abuse of tobacco and alcohol remain appalling.

I summarise key aspects of this important report:

Tobacco

1. In 2004, 17% of Australians aged 14 years and over were daily smokers a decline from 24% in 1991. This decline is much greater than the decline in the number of tobacco sticks imported which has remained fairly stable at 23 billion sticks per year. One can speculate that this might reflect the fact that fewer smokers are smoking more cigarettes with reduced nicotine content.
2. In 2004–05, the government collected over $6.7 billion from the import and sale of tobacco products.
3. In 2003 about 15,500 deaths occurred due to tobacco use mainly lung cancer (6,309) followed by pulmonary disease (4,125). In terms of disability-adjusted life years lost smoking cost 205,000 DALYs mainly again associated with lung cancer.
4. Australia has one of the lowest daily smoking rates in the OECD. The US, Canada and Sweden are slightly lower

Alcohol

1. In 2004, 9% of Australians drank daily, 41% drank weekly and 34% drank less than weekly. This pattern and consumption levels have remained relatively unchanged since 1991. Australians have changed their preferred alcoholic drinks over the past 40 years but their pure alcohol consumption has remained stable at about 10 litres per year.
2. Government revenue from alcohol was $5.1 billion in 2004-05.
3. In 2004, 35% of Australians drank alcohol at levels considered risky or high risk for short-term harm and 10% at levels considered risky or high risk for long-term harm.

Illicit drugs

1. In 2004, 38% of Australians aged 14 years and over had used an illicit drug in their lifetime and 15% in the last 12 months.
2. Cannabis was the most common illicit drug used (34% had used in their lifetime).
3. Ecstasy use has grown strongly since the early 1990s and now about 3.4% of the population aged 14 years+ have recently used.
4. Illegal use of painkillers and analgesics seems to have steadied off in the last few years but remains a significant problem.
5. In 2004, 9% of Australians aged 14 years and over had used methamphetamine in their lifetime and 3% in the last 12 months. Meth use is rather uncommon and growth in its use - contrary to popular impression – has been slow since 1991. There is a lengthy discussion of meth in this report.

Pharmaceuticals

1. In 2005, 234 million prescription medications were dispensed, of which 79% were Government subsidised.
2. Blood cholesterol medications (Atorvastatin and Simvastatin) were the top two medications in terms of cost to the Australian Government, frequency of dispensing, and prescribed daily dose. In 2005 they collectively cost the Federal Government $834 million.

Drugs and health

1. In 2003, an estimated 8% of the burden of disease was attributable to tobacco, 2% to alcohol and 2% to illicit drugs.
2. In 2004, greater psychological distress was associated with cannabis users than non-users. About 23% of cannabis users aged 18-19 reported high psychological distress associated with cannabis use.
3. In 2005, 46% of injecting drug users had overdosed at some point in their lives. The overdose rate has remained relatively low following the severe decline associated with the heroin drought of 2001.

Special populations

1. Use of tobacco and alcohol declined among secondary students 1999-2005. The use of various illicit drugs either declined or remained stable.
2. Births in mothers with opioid, stimulant or cannabis diagnoses were associated with several negative birth outcomes. For example, there was a substantially higher percentage of low birthweight babies born to mothers with opioid (28%) or cannabis (29%) diagnoses compared with those without such diagnoses (10%).
3. In 2004–05, around half of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples (52%) were current smokers, 23% had used marijuana/cannabis and 28% an illicit substance in the last 12 months. About 16% drank alcohol at risky or high risk levels.
4. 59% of prisoners had a history of injecting drugs in 2004. These prisoners were more likely to test positive to hepatitis C (56%) and hepatitis B (27%) than non-injecting drug users in prison.
5. Patterns of alcohol consumption were closely linked to the prevalence of negative work-related behaviours and absenteeism in 2001.

Treatment services

1. In 2004–05, alcohol was the most common principal drug of concern in treatment episodes (37%), followed by cannabis (23%) and heroin (17%). More sought treatment for cannabis use than for heroin.
2. There were 39,000 clients receiving pharmacotherapy treatment as at 30 June 2005: 72% were methadone maintenance clients and 28% buprenorphine clients.

Crime and law enforcement

1. Marijuana/cannabis accounted for 71% of illicit drug arrests in 2004–05.
2. In 2005, one in 10 prisoners was imprisoned for drug-related offences.
3. In 2003–04, 88% of juvenile detainees had used an illicit substance 6 months prior to arrest and 70% were intoxicated at the time of offence.

Hat tip to US-based Tanya for alerting me to publication of this Australian data.

Research work available

I am interested in employing economics graduates to do part-time research work in the areas of:

(i) Licit and illicit drug regulation.
(ii) Biodiversity conservation management.

If you are interested please contact me for discussion via the email address opposite.

Information on smokeless tobacco & NRT

I am interested in finding out what I can about smokeless tobacco products (wet and dry snuff or snus) and nicotine replacement therapies (NRT) in Australia. The latter include things like nicotine patches, inhalents and gums.

I know a little about wet and dry snuff but very little about NRT in Australia or its regulation. I am very interested in the pricing and availability of NRT therapies. If you have any experience with using NRT I'd be interested in your views - either here or direct to my email on the side column.

On smokeless tobacco products such as snuff.

Despite their relative safety - they are much safer than smoking cigarettes - Australia banned smokeless chewing tobacco and snuff in 1991 and previously in 1989.

According to the ACCC:

‘On October 12, 1989 a ban on smokeless tobacco products was declared under the Trade Practices Act 1974. This ban was prompted by a World Health Organisation recommendation of a global and pre-emptive ban on all smokeless cigarettes on the basis of studies showing these products cause oral cancer and other severe oral conditions.’ The ban specifically refers to ‘Chewing tobacco and snuffs intended for oral use.’

More recently, in 2003, the ACCC still listed smokeless tobacco as a banned product on the grounds of links with oral cancer: (here, page 10). To cater for people already addicted to chewing tobacco, consumers are allowed to import quantities up to 1.5kg for personal use: See Food Standards Australia New Zealand 2004. The ACCC document recommended the banning of nicotine in foods since, as at 2004, there was no prohibition on importing foods containing nicotine, such as NicoPops - lollypops with a kick.

Somewhat inconsistently however nasal snuff is not banned In Australia but is regulated and must carry health warnings similar to cigarettes: See here page 33.

This failure to emphasise harm reduction is criticised in the RCACP Report (2005, pages 15, 62, 63). This is a comprehensive policy document which includes a recommendation to include harm reduction in the fight against smoking tobacco use.

Despite this those concerned with drug issues in Australia remain ambivalent about harm reduction efforts in relation to smoking. The Alcohol and Other Drugs Council of Australia Vice President Wayne Hall states in the recent edition of Substance:

‘What attitude, for example, should ADCA take if the tobacco industry begins to promote non-smoked forms of tobacco products that have reduced levels of carcinogens such as Swedish snus? Should ADCA campaign to have current bans on the sale of these products removed in the interests of reducing harm among current smokers? Or should we, as some tobacco control advocates argue, see this as another policy mirage (like ‘light’ cigarettes) and keep our gaze firmly fixed on the goal of zero tobacco use?’ (Hall (2007, p. 5)).

Banning Swedish snus but allowing the continued sale of smoking cigarettes provides a regulatory bias that delivers monopoly power to the lethal tobacco industry. Such regulations, globally, are directly responsible for millions of deaths given that there are much safe alternatives to smoking cigarettes.

On NRTs.

My impression is that NRT products are expensive in Australia but that they are generally fairly readilky available. Beyond this I don't have a lot of information after 2002. My understanding is that to be effective NRTs need to provide a decent nicotine blast and that some don't. They also need to be cheap enough to permit long-term use.

Oldie movies by Fritz Lang & some modern movies

I’ve watched a couple of Fritz Lang movie masterpieces over the last days and several modern films. Its been a long, lazy Easter break.

Metropolis is a silent Lang classic from 1926, perhaps the first science fiction epic, with a wild plot involving downtrodden workers, mad engineers and feminoid robots. This astounding film is highly moralistic with a message about the balance between heart and mind in an industrial society that has, I think, contemporary relevance. I couldn’t get the original version of this flick but was left with one having a new (1998) music soundtrack by Peter Osborne. What a surreal and stylistically exaggerated movie this is. With the silent movies the emphasis fell on acting skill and this is one of the greatest of its genre from the viewpoint of displaying precisely that skill – the acting is dramatic, exaggerated and gripping. Rank 10/10 'fantastic' is the accurate adjective.

The Lang movie M (1931) features Peter Lorre in one of his first starring roles as a serial child killer who whistles Grieg. Lorre is put on trial by a criminal gang who are annoyed that the crime crackdown following the murders isa cutting into their ability to act – Lorre pleads that while they choose to commit crime, he is compelled to commit it. This is early film noir. This is a spooky, thriller (in German with subtitles) with good mob scenes and cop-versus-robber adventures. The German city is fearful of the murderer and these fears provide an interesting picture of pre-War Germany with criminal gangs and authoritarian coppers. I originally had problems getting a copy – I normally search for these older movies on EBay – but I bought a splendid DVD of this in a remainder bin outside a Tandy’s store for exactly $2. Grade 7/10.

I watched Marie Antoinette which I enjoyed. It stars the blood-warming Kirsten Dunst - you will fall in love with her after viewing this delightful tale. It is almost a historical movie but poetic licence intrudes more than a little. It is presented in a modern idiom but with historical costumes and exquisite presentations of the extravagant, luxurious lifestyles of Versailles that lead to the collapse of Louis V1. Sad moments of sexual- and life-starved frustration for Marie though she sticks with dense Louis through thick-and-thin. Both are on a gravy train that they do not entirely welcome and from which they cannot get off. The images that stick in my mind are of the sumptuous strawberry deserts, Marie’s shoes and clothes and the general sumpyuous glory of Versailles! Rank 8/10.

I watched The Painted Veil which gets 7/10. Based on a novel by W. Somerset Maugham, this is a love story set in the 1920s telling the tale of a young English couple, Walter (Edward Norton), a bacteriologist, and Kitty (Naomi Watts), an upper-class woman. They get married for the wrong reasons and relocate to Shanghai, where Kitty falls in love with a sleazy cad. Walter uncovers the infidelity and, in an act of spite, accepts a job in a remote village in China ravaged by cholera and KMT anger, and takes Kitty with him. Watching her husband working with KMT nationalists and cholera sufferers gives Kitty a new respect for him and they re-engage. It is a 'solidity versus fickleness' story with impressive photography of Chinese countryside.

Finally, I watched and enjoyed The Illusionist – the story of a man from the ‘lower classes’ (Edward Norton again) who secures the love of a woman of far higher social rank and retains this love using his skills as a magician, illusionist and strategist. This is a delightful fairytale that I strongly recommend - a 9/10. The magic is awesome and the intriguing punch line (which I won’t preannounce) is compelling. It’s a pleasant, well-acted fantasy. Norton is excellent as is Jessica Biel, the target of his affections.

Left-wing ninnies

Road to Surfdom claims:

• Australia has made no contribution in Afghanistan because we have only had one soldier killed there. No possibility that our forces are well-trained, enjoy strong support from locals and, among other things, are doing a good job training young men with technical skills. Note Nazi-like references by commenters at RTS to JWH as the ‘rodent’.
• Another post ironically praises Hilali for his skilled media manipulations. RTS likes the ‘old Sheik’ and notes his brilliance at 'playing the media’ despite discrediting Islam in Australia and making an idiot of himself. Is a more inaccurate assessment of Hilali possible? Does anyone have poorer media management skills than the Mufti?

Farewell the Sopranos

Norman Mailer recently called ‘The Sopranos’ the closest thing to the Great American Novel in today’s culture. But sob, this great TV series running from 1999-2007 (most of which I have watched from DVD) is coming to an end. No more prudish anxieties about appreciating gangster chic.

As Tony Soprano tells his psychiatrist ‘Things are trending downward’.

Here is an amusing 7 minute summary of the series up to Series 6a. Series 6b has just been completed. Apparently it is more cerebral, and less entertaining, than the earlier six series.

That Mufti & his supporters

The Australian Federation of Islamic Councils seems again to have endorsed Sheik Hilali as Mufti of Australia.

This is the man who endorses Iraqi Jihadists fighting Australians. Who sees relations between the sexes in terms of cats chasing uncovered meat. Who gives Australian aid money to a Lebanese radio station with links to terrorism. Who urges Muslims to support the fanatical Mahmoud Government in Iran. And all the other usual stuff – hates Jews, supports young Lebanese Muslim rapists etc. etc.

Immigration Minister Kevin Andrews has suggested Hilali find a new country to live in. He knows Australia cannot (legally) rid itself of him so he urges him to please relocate. While I think this is a sensible move, as I have argued, Hilali by himself is a bad joke rather than the serious threat. The difficulty really lies in the 5,000 or more supporters who back him and, indeed, the AFIC, who seem unable or unwilling to remove him. In the main, Hilali’s supporters are Lebanese and Egyptian Muslims who either came, ot their parents came, to Australia under the humanitarian and refugee program – they often have high unemployment or low-skilled jobs, high welfare dependency and poor future prospects. Hence the appeal of uneducated, religious fanaticism.

What price compassion? In this case it has proven to be expensive for Australia in terms of maintaining social cohesion and our civilized, tolerant values. We do not need immigrants who despise our way of life – there are plenty of struggling people around the world who would not have the problems this group have in establishing themselves here and being a part of the local community. The right of the ALP and Paul Keating have much to answer for generally in Australian politics. But their pressure to override the Department of Immigration and force the admission of Hilali is an outrage that has already involved huge implied costs with more to come. Australia should have made better refugee selections.

Many and probably Muslims do not see Hilali representing them at all and resent his ugly rhetoric. Some, however, have even more extreme views that Hilali. As JF Beck points out AFIC President Patel stated, when speaking of Hilali:

‘I will probably be scoffed at when I say this, but he's probably one of the most moderate of the imams in Australia, but he certainly doesn't bring that out in his approaches with the media.’

One of the most moderate? This amazing statement has frightening implications if true. Patel thinks he is defending the Mufti when he is merely showing the existencxe of a far greater problem. Moreover, if Hilali has at least 5,000 supporters this has frightening implications for counter-terrorism within Australia. The second sentence in the Pattel quote – his moderateness being not picked up by the media - is close to the standard evasion Australian Muslim leaders have resorted to whenever a clumbsy, monstrous statement is identified as having been made by one of their kin.

The issue of Hilali himself is trite but the problems stemming from the support he has in the community is non-trivial. It is a problem that Australia will have to learn to live with for decades.

Urban water pricing structures

I have posted before on the daft water restrictions employed in Melbourne. The current and projected future pricing structure does not make much sense either.

Charging different prices for the same good is counterproductive from the viewpoint of social efficiency. By definition it implies inefficiency since if the good is sold at a low price pl and at a high price ph the low price recipient can resell their water at a price between pl and ph leaving both vendor and recipient of the water better-off. This means that, to use economics jargon, multiple prices do not realize Pareto efficiency.

But multi-part pricing is not intended to drive efficiency – it is used to drive what are claimed to be society’s income distribution objectives. The idea is that something like water is provided up to some minimum amount at zero or low cost and then priced at higher levels if larger amounts are consumed – these are so-called inclining tariffs.

Sometimes too the argument is put that water is an essential ‘need’ that should be met at low cost with discretionary usage provided at higher cost. This is a slippery idea since households with many children, or with large gardens, have different needs than, for example, single person households. In my view ‘needs-based’ pricing arguments should not be used as the basis for pricing of anything.

Currently Yarra Valley Water in Melbourne proposes to introduce an even more strongly progressive set of water charges than they do at present. Currently Yarra Valley Water customers pay 81 cents a kilolitre up to 440 litres a day, 96 cents between 441 and 880 litres, and $1.41 over 880 litres. One proposal is to charge residents who use more than 880 litres a day to pay $4 a kilolitre for every litre over that and to charge mid-range consumers $2-50.

With this arrangement many low usage consumers will pay less than the social cost of their usage – they will still have incentives still to overuse – while high usage households will not be able to enjoy the services a water supply delivers even though they are willing to pay all the social costs of water that they use.

For industrial users Yarra Valley Water may propose a premium for top industrial consumers that use more than 10 million litres of water a year. At present, they pay a flat rate of 95 cents a kilolitre that is less than the current rate paid by residential customers. Under the proposal, they would be set an annual target and would pay a premium of $4 a kilolitre if that target were exceeded.

The proposal is to be evaluated by the Essential Services Commission in their 2008 review. The ESC is ambivalent on the issue of ‘inclining block’ tariffs neither insisting on them nor prohibiting them. The best stance would be to price water at its long-run marginal cost of supply and then recovering fixed costs by means of connection charges and so on. Pricing water below this cost causes wasteful use since benefits at the margin will be greater than costs while pricing water above this cost - $4 per kilolitre would be way above marginal cost - will mean benefits are underdelivered.

Overpricing will also mean that citizens turn to socially wasteful ways of gaining extra water supplies such as backyard tanks and recycling grey water. There is nothing sinful about citizens maintaining large gardens with lawns and swimming in their home pools if they pay the social costs of their consumption.

If policymakers are concerned with income redistribution then it would be best to tie fixed connection charges more progressively to householder income via local government rates paid or by rental than by varying the cost of use. Levying different connection charges is not the same thing as charging a minimum base rate for a fixed amount of water delivered since altering fixed charges can be explicitly tied to income.

Sack poor-performing teachers & pay performance bonuses to those who teach well

Julie Bishop announced today a sensible approach to improving teaching standards in schools by means of a two-pronged policy: (i) Giving school principals the right to sack poor teaching performers and the right to refuse to accept teachers transferred to them who don’t match up and by (ii) providing, from 2009, performance pay bonuses, to be awarded by principals, to teachers on the basis of their teaching performance rather than their seniority in the profession.

Principals cannot improve the quality of their schools if they are not in a position to sack poor performing teachers and to reward those with extra money who go the extra yard. Almost everyone who has been through the Australian school system or who has children in that system knows that there are teachers in both camps.

Watch the Labor Party, the dinosaur teacher unions and the left-wing educational think-tanks kick and scream over these proposals. Sacking incompetent teachers - how unfair! Paying good performers more than average performers - how unfair! To the disreputable, teacher unions a teacher’s job is a lifetime position with automatic salary increments paid the longer a teacher has served irrespective of skill.

The arguments that salaries on average are too low or that teachers are currently overworked - if true - have nothing at all to do with the performance pay issue. They have to do with the determination of average salaries and workloads. Salaries are too low and workloads are too high if there are teacher shortages in the schools.

What is decisively unfair is not paying high performing teachers their worth. Performance pay bonuses advantage good teachers.

Some commentators distort the issue by arguing that such measures will not improve the average level of skills of teachers in schools. This drone, for example, believes that paying all teachers higher salaries – irrespective of performance - would achieve the objective of improving average skill levels and that paying people different salaries is divisive. What a ludicrous argument from a former headmistress!

The Australian Council for Educational Research wants a highly codified formula for assigning performance pay and more support for the sorts of educational research it carries out. There is no need to tie performance pay to absolute levels of education performance. Schools do operate in different socio-economic strata with students of different ability. The requisite formula must involve a dimension of value-added – the issue is how much are student educational abilities augmented by an education experience?

That is the only catch in a payment-for-performance incentive contract. Measuring performance in a way that won’t encourage ‘corner-cutting’ (or outright cheating) by teachers. Criteria must reflect educational value-added, teachers must know the criteria they are being assessed on and teachers must be be given the opportunity to improve their teaching skills by furthering their own education.

This is one way of improving educational outcomes in our public and priivate schools.

Global heating & ecosystem responses

The IPCC 4th Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007, Summary for Policymakers: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability was released last night. The earlier IPCC report on the science of warming came up with forecast temperature rises to the end of this century of between 1.1-6.4 degrees C with a best guess range from 1.8-5.4 degrees C with a midpoint of 3,6 degrees C. The latest report looks at ecosystem responses.

Despite the sensationalist responses in parts of today's press (The Australian outdid itself by mixing up reports from the IPCC with comments to the press by IPCC members, leaving out almost all qualifiers) the IPCC report itself seems to me serious but moderate.

Anthropogenic warming is impacting on physical and biological systems. The effects will be mixed across regions for temperature increases of up to 3 degrees C but low latitude and Polar Regions will be severely impacted on by even small temperature increases.

The appraisal draws on improved data covering the period post-1970 though most of these studies cover developed, Northern hemisphere countries. There are comparatively few studies in South America, Australia-New Zealand and Africa though there is a concentration of studies in Antarctica. Globally, of more than 29,000 observed data series from 75 studies showing changes in physical and biological systems more than 89% are consistent with the direction of change expected as a consequence of warming - natural variability is unlikely to account for observed effects. Moreover, models with combined natural and anthropogenic forcings simulate responses better than those with natural forcing alone.

The main findings are that, in response to global warming:

With ‘high confidence’ (8 out of 10 chance), natural snow ice and frozen systems are being affected. Glacial lakes are increasing in size and number with increasing ground instability in permafrost regions and rock avalanches in mountain regions. Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems are being affected including those in sea-ice biomes and also predators high in the food chain.

With ‘high confidence’ hydrological systems are being affected with increased runoff and earlier spring-peak discharges in many glacier and snow-fed rivers.

With ‘very high confidence’ (at least 9 out of 10 chance) based on additional evidence from a wider range of species than surveyed in IPCC 3, terrestrial biological systems are being affected. Spring time leaf unfolding, bird migration and egg-laying are occurring earlier and there are poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal species. Plants are greening earlier in the spring with longer thermal growing seasons.

There is ‘high confidence’ that changes in marine and freshwater biological systems are occurring in response to changed water temperature, changes in ice cover, salinity and oxygen levels and circulation. The uptake of anthropogenic carbon has made the oceans more acidic though the implications of this are unclear – this should affect marine shell-forming organisms such as coral reefs.

Other effects on agriculture and forestry in Northern hemisphere higher latitudes (earlier crop planting, forest fires and pests), heat related mortality in Europe, infectious diseases and allergic pollen effects are being observed in the Northern hemisphere and attributed to temperature increases with medium confidence.

Other effects such as increased risks to mountain settlement due to glacier floods, warmer and drier conditions in Africa and losses of coastal wetlands and increased damage from coastal flooding are being observed but, as yet, do not constitute clear trends.

Among the impacts of relevance to Australia:

A 20-30% decrease in river runoff and water availability in water-stressed areas. An increase in the extent of drought affected areas and an increased frequency of high precipitation events triggering flooding.

Ecosystem resilience exceeded by an unprecedented combination of climatic change, associated disturbances (flooding, drought, wildfire, insect, ocean acidification) and other anthropogenic changes related to changed land use.

Net carbon intake by terrestrial ecosystems will peak before mid-century and then reverse amplifying effects of climate change.

20-30% species extinctions if increases in global average temperatures exceed 1.5-2.5 degrees C as seem plausible given the earlier IPCC report.

Agricultural prioductivities will increase slightly for local mean temperature increases of 1-3 degrees C and then decrease beyond that in some regions. In dry and tropical regions at lower latitudes productivities should fall. Globally food production should increase with temperature increases in the range 1-3 degrees C but decrease beyond that.

Effective agricultural adaptations include use of altered cultivars and changed growing seasons.

Coastal zones will be exposed to increased risks including coastal erosion. Coals are vulnerable to thermal stress and have low adaptive capacity. Coastal wetlands will be adversely affected particularly when they are constrained on their landward side and starved of sediment.

Among the health effects will be increased frequency of cardiovascular diseases due to higher concentrations of ground level ozone. There will also be changes in the distribution of infectious diseases. In temperate areas health will improve through lower levels of cold exposure.

Many of the most severe effects are concentrated in developing countries. In terms of specific impacts on Australia:

As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia.

Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically-rich sites including the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics. Other sites at risk include Kakadu wetlands, south-west Australia, sub-Antarctic islands and in alpine areas.

Ongoing coastal development and population growth in areas such as Cairns and Southeast Queensland are projected to exacerbate risks from sea-level rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by 2050.

Production from agriculture and forestry by 2030 is projected to decline over much of southern and eastern Australia due to increased drought and fire.

Australia has substantial adaptive capacity due to its well-developed economy and scientific and technical capabilities, but there are considerable constraints to implementation and major challenges from changes in extreme events. Natural systems have limited adaptive capacity.

Water management strategies in Australia are singled out as important adaptation measures. These will complement mitigation strategies in reducing the risks of climate change.

This picture of likely trends in Australia is more specific with respect to rainfall forecasts than earlier CSIRO discussions but still non-specific. The earlier forecasts provided almost no specific forecasts on likely future rainfall patterns – I am not suggesting this is easy – but then link agricultural outcomes to forecast rainfall effects. This is unhelpful. Hopefully the CSIRO who have provided much information to the IPCC will now provide detailed forecasts to resident Australians.

Some work on the effects of climate change on marine environments was released this week – the executive summary is here and the arguments reviewed here. Kevin Hennessy (a CSIRO scientist who is part of the IPCC team) made more specific predictions in a media release after the release of the IPCC report including forecasts of a 10-25 per cent reduction in runoff in the Murray Darling Basin by 2050. Geoff Love, another climate change expert and IPCC member, made specific forecasts that the Great Barrier Reef would be destroyed if temperatures rose 3 degrees C.

These specific forecasts are news to me – they are not part of the IPCC Summary document and I will follow them up.

The observations about endangered biodiversity sites are well-known. Observations on coastal development and agriculture seem new.

Final Asides

There remain extraordinarily high levels of uncertainty about the discounted social costs of emitting a tonne of carbon. The average figure is $12US per tonne of CO2 but the range of estimates examined vary from $3-$130 per tonne of CO2! This range depends on different assumptions regarding climate sensitivity, different assumed response lags, different treatments of risk and equity, the inclusion or not of catastrophic losses and the choice of discount rate.

Climate change blogs have been slow to react to the report but Climate Ark wrote a fairly hysterical piece emphasizing that the final report had the views of scientists extensively modified by politicians. How exactly would one expect the UN to react? I’ll add further links as they become available.

Evaluating teachers on the web

My local newspaper pointed me to ratemyteachers.com a website that allows students Australia-wide to anonymously rate their teachers by applying 5-point scales to the 'easiness', 'helpfulness' and 'clarity' of their teaching efforts. Comments can also be appended to the numerical evaluation. University teachers are evaluated as part of the survey.

Predictably the dinosaurs in The Australian Education Union, such as Mary Bluett, object to any such evaluations because they might be negative - some teachers have rung her saying they are 'hurt by the comments'. But the comments might also give undue praise - glancing through some of the schools that I know about I saw a few exaggerated comments in that direction.

The comments too are entirely unrepresentative - the 'squeaky wheels' are most likely to offer a view and indeed perhaps to repeat views by 'sock puppeting'.

But still I have some sympathy for this flawed evaluation technique. I know from experience that incompetent teachers do maintain teaching positions for long periods in both schools and universities despite various internal, private evaluation procedures.

Reforms that retrain or replace incompetent teachers are overdue and would do away entirely with parents needing to rely on biased public websites to get information.

Happy Easter

Thanks Sir Henry

Dr. Ken Henry's sensible remarks

Secretary to the Treasury, Dr Ken Henry’s recent comments on economic policy and the role of Treasury – now available at the Treasury website - need to be listened to. I can’t see anything in them that is unreasonably critical of the Howard Government. There has been an overreaction to his comments from both sides of parliament but sensibly not from the Prime Minister and the Treasurer who have been careful in their responses.

The topic of Henry’s talk, directed to his Treasury staff, was Treasury’s effectiveness in the current economic and political environment.

Henry points to the accomplishments of Treasury on the second intergenerational report, in convening the G-20 meeting, in providing legislative advice on superannuation reform and in encouraging reforms in energy, transport and infrastructure which, if implemented by COAG, should improve productivity. All very nice and positive.

Henry regrets that the government has not paid more heed to Treasury advice on matters of climate change and water resource policy. But he doesn’t whine about this and the observations are only a few lines in a 25 page paper. Henry knows that ministers are under no obligation to accept Treasury advice and that Treasury is competing with other agencies for influence. Sensibly he suggests that Treasury can increase its influence by adopting a broad perspective, by using approaches based on analytical rigor and by effectively communicating this information to ministers and stakeholders. This cannot be construed as anti-government propaganda. Indeed Henry describes Peter Costello as able and appreciative of receiving frank advice!

Henry is concerned that with the economy operating at close to full employment so expansionary fiscal policy will crowd out private sector activity unless measures are taken to increase supply capacity. We need more people, more productivity or higher workforce participation to develop new areas of economic focus. A move into nuclear power will be feasible without training nuclear scientists which would reduce production capacities elsewhere.

This places constraints on the efficacy of taxpayer funded handouts and suggests pointing out to ministers the need to explain why contracting other parts of the economy is desirable in order to fund their pet schemes.

Another constraint imposed by full employment is the reduced community appetite for reform. Just let the good times roll as a response to improved terms of trade! Given constraints imposed by the aging population, complacency is an inappropriate attitude.

Many of these issues are driven into sharp focus by the fact that 2007 is an election year and an election that looks difficult for the current masters of the Treasury to win. During the caretaker period the Government by convention does not undertake major policy decisions. The job of Treasury is to provide factual information to Government, briefings to each of the potential governments and, as required by the Charter of Budget Honesty Act, to provide the public with accurate information on the state of the nation’s finances as well as costings of election promises.

Henry reminds his staff of the crucial need to remain non-partisan and non-political during this period. He also cautions that during the lead-up to the election there will be a greater than normal level of bad policy proposals. The issues of opportunity costs given full employment should be emphasised. This is not contentious advice and, of course, should be heeded.

Walters on a sunny Melbourne afternoon in autumn

A mid-afternoon escape from the Global Finance Conference yesterday afternoon landed me in Walter’s Wine Bar on Southbank. I ordered my usual cheese platter and launched into three sample size (75 ml) glasses of extraordinary Italian wines: a 2002 Umberto Cesari Sangiovese, a 2005 Farnese Montepulciano and a 2001 Pasqua Valpolicella. These are powerful flavoursome wines with intense (and in the case of the Pasqua) almost feral bouquets. I run out of adjectives – velvet-glove-smooth but lots of powerful fruit and flavour, some prune and vanilla bean flavours, intense......

Walters is one of my favourite Melbourne destinations. The reason is simple – they have a good restaurant and a superb range of wines. Also great views of the water and the grand old Flinders St Station.

If you have won a fortune at Crown you might consider forking out $4800 for a Domaine de la Romanée-Contee or, if less flush than that, think about spending $16 on this superb Italian trio. Highly recommended – two sets of trios later I was set on the right path to appreciating academic finance papers and econometrics over the rest of the afternoon - though the details kind of escaped me.

The Conference dinner wines served that night at Crown left me under-whelmed but the Italian vino was a hard act to follow.

Keep cannabis illegal 2

Why? Because of what I said earlier and because it causes lung cancer.

On the cancer issue:

Cannabis increases the risk of lung cancer and may cause 5% of cases of the disease in people aged 55 and under, according to a new study being published later this year.

Researchers have found a 5-fold increased risk of lung cancer in heavy users of cannabis. They calculate that the risk of developing lung cancer increased by 8% a year for people whose cumulative exposure equated to smoking one joint a day.

"Long-term cannabis use increases the risk of lung cancer in young adults, particularly in those who start smoking cannabis at a young age," according to researchers from the Medical Research Institute of New Zealand.

The increased risk is blamed on the tendency of cannabis smokers to inhale deeper and longer than with an ordinary cigarette.

The World Health Organisation in 1997 concluded that cannabis when smoked is twice as carcinogenic than tobacco. Some doctors claim it causes cancers of the lungs, larynx, mouth and oesophagus as well as other chronic lung diseases. Those smoking on a regular basis are thought to be most at risk.

The research adds to the existing evidence that cannabis use can increase the risk of emphysema, chronic bronchitis and lung cancer.

Acrophobia in Hamlet

I’ve always disliked heights.

As a teenager I climbed around the cliff face of a rocky headland at Dee Why in Sydney and, for a second, lost my grip on the loose sandstone. I managed to regain my balance and grip but the sensation of nearly falling to the rocks a hundred feet below led to occasional nightmares for years. Even as an adult I am fairly acrophobic. I don’t enjoy standing on exposed lookouts at height, for example, although, for some reason, flying in a plane doesn’t bother me. As far as I can analyze it my fear of heights now is unrelated to the earlier traumatic event. The feeling I now get if I stand on an exposed platform at some height reflects the bizarre notion that I might be tempted to throw myself off and that this urge might overcome my self-preservation instincts. I don’t want to do it, as some psychologists suggest in their analysis of acrophobia, I only fear that the urge might force me to do it. So the fear is a bit like a latently powerful death wish. I have talked to others over the years with the same fear and have the same rationale for it – it is, in fact, a common analysis in the psychology of acrophobia.

Harold Bloom argues, somewhat preposterously, that Shakespeare created the notion of personality and was therefore instrumental in creating the science of psychology and indeed the idea of human nature. Hence I was pleased to note, while recently rereading Hamlet, that the Bard also identified this fear and its rationale. The scene is where the ghost of Hamlet’s father beckons Hamlet to follow him. Horatio warns him not to go because the ghost might drive him to jump to their death over the rocky cliff face:

‘What if it tempt you toward the flood, my lord,
Or to the dreadful summit of the cliff
That beetles [i.e. projects] o’er his base into the sea,
And there assume some other, horrible form,
Which might deprive your sovereign of reason [your reason of its control over you]
And draw you into madness? Think of it. The very place puts toys of desperation, [fanciful impulses leading to despair and suicide]
Without more motive, into every brain
That looks so many fathoms to the sea
And hears it roar beneath’.

Hamlet was brave enough to face such fears – indeed contrary to the popular portrayal of him as being indecisive he drew his sword on Horatio and the guards to force him to allow him to go.

Of course when I am acrophobic I am not dragged off to cliff faces by the ghost of my father but it is essentially the same fear described by Horatio. I feel pleased that a person with Shakespeare’s demoniac insight into human personality observes the fear I experience as a more universal human trait. I am not that weird after all! I’d be interested if readers suffer from acrophobia and can relate to the incident in Hamlet and my fear.

Spam & discussion policy

Over the past few months traffic to this site has more than doubled and my non-monetary 'effort' costs of maintaining the site have increased more than proportionately.

Spam. I have again begun to receive Spam. Unless I impose the letter-recognition procedure that I used until recently for comments made (this increases commenter time costs) I get repetitive Spam each day to particular sites (which increases my time costs).

An alternative to imposing the recognition test is to require people to register for use of the site – something I am reluctant to do since it cuts out the occasional reader who has particular interest in one topic. The difficulty with the Blogger software I use is that I need to enter each posting individually to delete any Spam. This is time-consuming.

An alternative is to switch to using Wordpress and use some anti-Spam software. Given problems that I observe other sites (with far more volume than this site) have experienced in making this type of move I doubt it would be effective.

I welcome views and advice but need to do something.

Comments policy. Recently I have received some narky, negative, personal comments so, yes, I took a big step – for the first time ever I deleted comments.

I just can't be bothered dealing with personal attacks based on assumptions of bad faith – particularly, but not exclusively, when those attacks are made under the cloak of anonymity. If you do use a pseudonym that is fine but please be careful about the character of your comments.

Some commenters now change their pseudonym and make abusive comments under different names (they ‘sock puppet’). Such comments are easily identified by me and will be deleted without any remark on my part. One advantage of making the spam reforms cited above is that I can ban such individuals permanently from this blog.

I publish many comments critical of my own views – sometimes the negativity gets to me – but I expect to receive such comments. Blogging is a conversation and in some cases I have changed my own view in response to comments. But I dislike abuse that suggests bad faith and which is primarily designed to insult.

Contrary to the impressions of some this is not a public place. There is no automatic right to comment. Comments are welcome from anyone willing to engage in ordinary civilised discussion but not those which are nothing more than personal attacks.

Discussion of this policy is very welcome. My main intention is to enjoy blogging without spending too much time dealing with spam and without getting involved in the antics of serial abusers.

If you don’t wish to abide by these rules it is very easy, go elsewhere.

UN discredits itself (if there is much left to discredit)

Via Catallaxy. The UN has just passed a resolution :

‘Combating defamation of religions’ expressing a ‘deep concern at attempts to identify Islam with terrorism, violence and human rights violations... and the ethnic and religious profiling of Muslim minorities... in the aftermath of the tragic events of September 11’.

In favour (24): Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Cameroon, China, Cuba, Djibouti, Gabon, Indonesia, Jordan, Malaysia, Mali, Mauritius, Mexico, Morocco, Pakistan, Philippines, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, South Africa, Sri Lanka and Tunisia.

Against (14): Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Guatemala, Japan, Netherlands, Poland, Republic of Korea, Romania, Switzerland, Ukraine and United Kingdom.

Abstentions (9): Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Ghana, India, Nigeria, Peru, Uruguay and Zambia.

The statement, endorsed by the Organization of the Islamic Conference, was opposed by members of the EU, and other non-Muslim states like Canada, South Korea, and Japan partly because of its specific emphasis on Islam and because of concerns that the statement contradicted freedom of expression rights.

One can question why we belong to the UN. It represents the values of those countries whose attitudes to freedom are the antithesis of ours.

How can we be guided on matters of human rights and religious freedom by the judgments of countries such as Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Cameroon, China, Cuba, Djibouti, Gabon, Indonesia, Jordan, Malaysia, Mali, Mauritius, Mexico, Morocco, Pakistan, Philippines, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, South Africa, Sri Lanka and Tunisia?

• In Algeria Islam is the state religion. The human rights situation is terrible with thousands killed.
• Cuba and China can’t give advice on human rights violations. Such rights have been systematically violated in both countries with tens of millions killed in China – worse perhaps than the Stalinist purges.
• In Bangladesh Islam is the state religion and minorities are persecuted.
• In Malaysia Islam is the official state religion and the operation of other religions is under the control of Muslims.
• In Saudi Arabia all Saudi citizens must be Muslims. Human rights are non-existent.
• In Sri Lanka Christians are persecuted and a war is going on with separatist Tamils.
• In Tunisia human rights are severely repressed with thousands jailed and tortured.
  etc etc etc.

The countries voting against the resolution are among the materially most prosperous and, in terms of civil liberties, most decent. The countries supporting the resolution are among the worst. But the hypocrisy here is obvious. If you belonged to a religious minority where would you prefer to live – in Saudi Arabia or the UK?

When these countries cited call for mandated religious freedoms and guarantees of human rights for Muslims isn’t this the pot calling the kettle black? Why the emphasis on Islam? Why not religious freedom in their own countries including the right of any person to choose or convert to the religion they want? In many Muslim countries the crime of apostasy is punishable by death.

The implied basis for this policy? No link between Islam and terrorism? None? Zero link? Clean as a whistle, there is no link? That would surprise anyone not in a coma for the past 20 years.

Moderate thoughtful Muslims do denounce terrorism. These Muslims also denounce anti-Semitism. Indeed, in my experience, moderate, thoughtful Muslims are often more careful in putting their religious precepts into effect than religious non-Muslims. They understand that killing innocents is not the way to go - or they say that when confronted with the historical record of Islamic involvement with terrorist killing of total innocents.

But the Islam being defended at UN Conferences is not necessarily moderate. It is political Islam. The Taliban and Al Qaeda that are currently engaged in a war against the west are this is not modern Islam.

The actions of Islamic terrorist groups operating throughout the world are well known. Islamic terrorists have bombed and destroyed buildings, planes, and vehicles. Additionally, during the last 20 years, Muslim terrorists have targeted and murdered tens of thousands of males, females, adults, and children. All over the world, in Kenya, Algeria, Indonesia, Egypt, Iran, France, South America and America, etc., Muslim terrorists have attacked and murdered those they felt were a threat to their aims. No one has been spared by these treacherous people.

Not surprisingly, examination of the websites that deal with terrorism show that about one half of all terrorist groups in the world are Islamic in nature.

I cannot see the logic behind the UN vote. Why a one-sided advocacy of a case for defence of Islamic rights but not corresponding pressure for Muslim countries to reform themselves? Why the apparent hypocrisy and why membership of an organisation comprising governments that no Australian (or, indeed, civilised human being) would respect?

Football & the tedious media

I have enjoyed watching several AFL games over the past few years – but even this limited interest has recently waned. The dominance of match reports, sick, injured and drunk player reports, tribunal hearings, tipping guides and, most recently, events associated with the suspension of Ben Cousins, that have dominated the Melbourne public media over the past weeks, leave me suffering from footie indigestion. Moreover, with only a month of autumn gone, the footie season has only just started.

It is not only boring – the obsession with AFL is an indictment of what is an asinine aspect of Melbourne’s culture and of course, part of the general Australian obsession with sport.

I tire of the AFL dominating news broadcasts and lunchtime conversations. I don’t care if players in this game get suspended, suffer injuries, make love with other team-player’s wives, fight in bars, stick white powder up their noses, go into rehab or get sympathy messages from Shane Warne. I don’t care if Melbourne is, or is not, the sporting capital of Australia. AFL is a sporting game and, beyond the game itself, players are unworthy of the attention given to them.

Indeed, I suspect many of them might not enjoy the media spotlight. Certainly the egos it helps build seem unhealthy. Very plausibly the over-exposure is partly a sickness associated with the incentives facing commercial television. Interviewing players and describing the details of the latest scandal or poor performance is a cheap way of filling out spaces between advertisements in news programs and I suspect, despite the vast sums cited, a relatively cheap way of filling out other programming time as well. Commercial television news in Melbourne is dominated by football reporting. Moreover, the sickness is creeping into the ABC’s television coverage and, like a southern-based cane toad invasion, has spread Australia-wide.

This obsession is partly exaggerated. It does not fairly reflect demand – 2.5 million Australians attended AFL matches last year but 2.7 million attended the theatre. About the same number of people watched Rugby League as went to a classical music concert while more went to a dance performance. The ‘couch potatoes’ who stayed at home prefer movies and sport to the football.

OK I am overstating the issue a bit and being somewhat hypocritical. I am, in fact, a fan of watching cricket – although not of talking about it or hearing gossip about Shane Warne’s mobile phone bills. On TV, I only watch cricket intensively over the Xmas break. And I don’t really dislike football - indeed I'll start taking my son top AusKick over the next few weeks. It is just that there is an overexposure to the trivia associated with football. I am completely disinterested in such detail and have convex preferences - my tastes don't specialise to a single form of entertainment.

How to change things? I am unsure - the Anti-Football League has recently been reconstituted.